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3Bet pots oop vs loose passive fish

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nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

You miss something postflop. When you raise big preflop, Villain will be tight postflop and it will be hard for you to make him fold.
Your game is ok if you hold big pair...


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la55i
Joined: 27.01.2013

Villain is loose but for example in the first hand his open raise is only 22, so his range is not so loose anymore when he open raises. When he calls your 3bet it is even tighter. And when he calls your cbet it gets really really tight. I expect him to call you with a lot of pocket pairs. So even if his limping range is wide, his range here has been narrowed down to a pretty tight one.


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should agree with you. but now the pot is big, dont i have odds for x/c all in?

AKo have 44% on flop TT6 against such range: QQ-44,ATs+,KTs+,QTs+,J9s+,T8s+,97s+,87s,AQo+
pretty much same is with AJo hand. But of course i am not sure if villains would have shoved all in with this ranges :)


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la55i
Joined: 27.01.2013

To construct a range for villain I would like to know how many hands do you have on him and what are his fold to 3bet and fold to cbet stats.

That range you put there might be ok for a fish but lets take those 2 gappers out. So no 97s, T8s or J9s. If you think villain calls your 3bet wide it means he has 6x in his range too so let's add 67s and 56s.

MP2 39.58% 34.28% 5.31% AcKh
CO 60.42% 55.11% 5.31% QQ-44, ATs+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, T9s, 98s, 87s, 76s, 65s, AQo+

Then you cbet quite big. I don't have villains fold to cbet stat but I assume he is folding all air hands.

Now when we think villain has QQ-TT, 66, AQs+, ATs, KQs, KTs, QTs, JTs, T9s, 76s, 65s, AdJd, KdJd, QdJd, 9d8d, 8d7d, AQo+ we have only 37%. And this is still pretty wide. I kept those AQo+ and KQs there just because villain thinks they are cool.

And when the turn makes the board double paired I think he will call your shove only with pocket pairs and stronger hands. He know better than to go all-in with Q high.


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la55i
Joined: 27.01.2013

In hand 2 you have around 28% vs 22-JJ and random flush draws. It might actually be true that you have the odds to call because villain is so short and you bet so big OTF. Still I think betting was a mistake. At least I would have bet smaller.

The problem is that you put yourself in a situation where it is profitable to call but putting yourself into that position is not good.
For example you don't cbet with your AJo hand -> you can fold when villain shoves. If you bet this big you have to call his shove and you will lose 70% of the time.


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nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

Originally posted by la55i
Villain is loose but for example in the first hand his open raise is only 22, so his range is not so loose anymore when he open raises. When he calls your 3bet it is even tighter. And when he calls your cbet it gets really really tight. I expect him to call you with a lot of pocket pairs. So even if his limping range is wide, his range here has been narrowed down to a pretty tight one.

22 is pretty reasonable pfr and we should proceed as standard.


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nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

Originally posted by KnowWhyStarted
should agree with you. but now the pot is big, dont i have odds for x/c all in?

AKo have 44% on flop TT6 against such range: QQ-44,ATs+,KTs+,QTs+,J9s+,T8s+,97s+,87s,AQo+
pretty much same is with AJo hand. But of course i am not sure if villains would have shoved all in with this ranges :)
Better push flop then...


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nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

Originally posted by la55i
To construct a range for villain I would like to know how many hands do you have on him and what are his fold to 3bet and fold to cbet stats.

That range you put there might be ok for a fish but lets take those 2 gappers out. So no 97s, T8s or J9s. If you think villain calls your 3bet wide it means he has 6x in his range too so let's add 67s and 56s.

MP2 39.58% 34.28% 5.31% AcKh
CO 60.42% 55.11% 5.31% QQ-44, ATs+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, T9s, 98s, 87s, 76s, 65s, AQo+

Then you cbet quite big. I don't have villains fold to cbet stat but I assume he is folding all air hands.

Now when we think villain has QQ-TT, 66, AQs+, ATs, KQs, KTs, QTs, JTs, T9s, 76s, 65s, AdJd, KdJd, QdJd, 9d8d, 8d7d, AQo+ we have only 37%. And this is still pretty wide. I kept those AQo+ and KQs there just because villain thinks they are cool.

And when the turn makes the board double paired I think he will call your shove only with pocket pairs and stronger hands. He know better than to go all-in with Q high.

You are right. If villain called some big bets, it will be much more difficult to push him off the hand with the stacks left.


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nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

Originally posted by la55i
In hand 2 you have around 28% vs 22-JJ and random flush draws. It might actually be true that you have the odds to call because villain is so short and you bet so big OTF. Still I think betting was a mistake. At least I would have bet smaller.

The problem is that you put yourself in a situation where it is profitable to call but putting yourself into that position is not good.
For example you don't cbet with your AJo hand -> you can fold when villain shoves. If you bet this big you have to call his shove and you will lose 70% of the time.

No matter the odds out flop cbet is wrong. With the stacks left we have no FE and I do not see us betting for value here.


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