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AQo 3-bet pot

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mistralx
Joined: 13.08.2014

PokerStars - $0.05 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 139.4 BB (VPIP: 20.00, PFR: 15.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 20)
Hero (SB): 104.8 BB
BB: 136.2 BB (VPIP: 27.94, PFR: 25.00, 3Bet Preflop: 16.00, Hands: 69)
UTG: 98.6 BB
MP: 99.2 BB (VPIP: 100.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 1)
CO: 108.4 BB (VPIP: 22.22, PFR: 14.81, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 28)

Hero posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has Q♥ A♣

fold, fold, fold, BTN raises to 3 BB, Hero raises to 9 BB, fold, BTN calls 6 BB

Flop: (19 BB, 2 players) 6♦ Q♦ 8♠
Hero bets 10.2 BB, BTN calls 10.2 BB

Turn: (39.4 BB, 2 players) 8♣
Hero bets 22.2 BB, BTN raises to 120.2 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 63.4 BB and is all-in

River: (210.6 BB, 2 players) 8♥

I know that many of you might tell that this is an overplay.
But just let's think for a moment - what does he shove here? Full houses (66? QQ he 4-bets usually), quad? I don't really think so. The only better hands that might play this way are 98s, 87s, A8s.
My experience says that it is a spot, when he semi-bluffs a lot OTT and he migh have hands like AdXd, JdTd, Td9d, KdJd, KdTd etc.
Let's take a look to equilab. If I give him this range, I have a clear call:

Stół: 6♦Q♦8♠ 8♣
       Equity  Wygrana  Podział
MP2    43.53%   43.53%    0.00% { AcQh }
MP3    56.47%   56.47%    0.00% { A8s, 98s, 87s, AdJd, KdJd, AdTd, KdTd, JdTd, Ad9d, Td9d }

Ofc he might have a little bit more flush draws.


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8 replies
Hesticus
Joined: 24.06.2008

This was a fold for me in order to avoid the risk of going broke. We will more often get raised for value. However, if you have a solid read on villain, by all means; call. As I said in an earlier thread, see it as a business in which you want to distinguish yourself among the rest. We only advise a profitable playing style and mention theories that support this (in this case we would apply baluga). See this forum as a group of consultants in which we solely advise.

Hope this helps.

GL at the tables!


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YohanN7
Joined: 15.06.2009

Have you tried the GTO approach?

That is, ask where you are in your own range. Then call with the appropriate percentage of that range. Since this is all in, that percentage is calculable from the pot odds you are offered. Once you get used to the approach, it is much easier (and faster) than guessing what a villain might be doing when you don't know anything about him.


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nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

Pushing fd on paired board is not so good, so he may not do this. As I see it , he has hands that beat us.


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mistralx
Joined: 13.08.2014

So I guess I was lucky in this spot.
He showed:

Spoiler

T♦:9♦:


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Hesticus
Joined: 24.06.2008
Pistoleroo
Joined: 06.02.2015

Were losing against 1 combo of 88 3 combo's of 66's and 1 combo of QQ. That's 5 combo's. He is in position. No need to raise. He can overplay AQ, KQ FD's . Thats alot more combo's. Don't start nitting it up. It's a 3-bet pot.


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NatRPheM
Joined: 05.10.2008

Against unknown that's a tough spot.. but there is so much crazy play at NL5 I think I sigh and go broke on the turn, with reads or notes, things of course change, he doesn't have QQ-AA here much so what are his value hands? 88? no way he shoves quads, people slow play that hand to oblivion, only value hand I see him having there that has you beat is 66, 68s and I think that's about it, seems more and more like a clear call given previous streets actions.

Edit: WIth the hand he actually has, he can rep a much stronger range if he raises you on the flop and shoves turn.. I don't think I stack off with AQ against that. I think he miss played his hand pretty horribly.


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nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

If he showed Td9d, make a note and have this in mind when he pushes.


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