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mistralx
Joined: 13.08.2014

PokerStars - $0.05 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 84 BB (VPIP: 22.64, PFR: 15.09, 3Bet Preflop: 9.09, Hands: 54)
SB: 135.8 BB (VPIP: 51.43, PFR: 40.00, 3Bet Preflop: 7.14, Hands: 36)
BB: 100 BB (VPIP: 26.09, PFR: 21.74, 3Bet Preflop: 4.17, Hands: 50)
UTG: 106.8 BB (VPIP: 7.50, PFR: 7.50, 3Bet Preflop: 9.52, Hands: 40)
MP: 111.2 BB (VPIP: 27.27, PFR: 21.21, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 33)
Hero (CO): 100 BB

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has K♦ A♠

fold, fold, Hero raises to 3 BB, fold, SB calls 2.6 BB, fold

Flop: (7 BB, 2 players) 9♥ 6♦ 5♦
SB checks, Hero bets 4 BB, SB calls 4 BB

Turn: (15 BB, 2 players) A♣
SB checks, Hero bets 8.8 BB, SB raises to 20 BB, Hero calls 11.2 BB

River: (55 BB, 2 players) K♣
SB bets 42 BB, Hero calls 42 BB

I am in this spot with a fishy player who showed some tendenced to aggression (Total Ag. 9.0 + info "Raises Flop c-bet w/Overpair or less & no draw (1)").

Preflop - std
Flop - I think I could check this back, I could c-bet. Board is very wet any many draws and gut shots will pay (but he also might have many combos of pair + gut shot etc.). Finnally decided to c-bet.
Turn - I hit my out and this is obviously another bet and then I face x/r. This card didn't complete any draw - so he might have slowplayed some made hands, turns into a bluff a huge amount of his FD or maybe hits two pairs? What do you think now? Vs a regular player I should usually fold this one, but vs this 51/40 after 40 hands?
River - now I have a pretty good bluff catcher. What do you think? Call this one? And another question - if Kx didn't appear, should I call or fold?


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7 replies
nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

I would not cbet this flop.
After the turn xr, I will fold, according to Baluga Theorem.
River is a call with our hand.


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la55i
Joined: 27.01.2013

I'm not sure what does this cbet accomplish. Basically you can't call OTT.


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mistralx
Joined: 13.08.2014

So it doesn't change anything for you guys when we play with 20/18 or 50/40 (according to calling this x/r)? I know 40 hands is not a big sample but we can draw some conclusions.


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la55i
Joined: 27.01.2013

Hand sample is too small. Those stats speak only for preflop. You have seen him raise OTF with overpair or less only once and turn raises are always stronger than flop raises.

If we diverge from our standard play, we need strong info to support our move. Here we don't have that kind of info. Basing our decisions only on 36 hands is wrong. It would be best to not look at stats at all if you have a small sample.


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nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

Wow , I am tired today of watching 36 hand samples and making huge decisions on them...
Just treat him as unknown yet,


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Hesticus
Joined: 24.06.2008

Lol :)
Flop was a check for me as well.
As played, I would call river here as well.


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YohanN7
Joined: 15.06.2009

Hand sample is plenty enough to skew decisions based on. In fact, the hand is well played throughout given he is a verified maniac.

This is important: If you have this kind of sample, then it is easily enough to draw conclusions (preliminary conclusions) about preflop tendencies. This guy is wild. For comparison, if you roll a fair die 36 times and end up with 15 sixes (very loose) instead of the expected value of 6 sixes (very tight with 16.6% preflop raises), then it is quite likely that the die isn't fair. It may turn out that if you roll it 100 000 times more, things even out, but it is actually substantially more likely that it does not. You have to go with the incomplete information that you have.

Edit:That PT4 autonote is useful too. Not literally, just more evidence the guy is presently playing wild. Best of all are own notes on shown down hands. They are worth more than any sort of late street stat PT4 can provide unless the sample size is really really big. For these streets, the rolled die analogy doesn't work.

Keep in mind too that stats may change. Not because they most likely were on a rush of good cards before, but because they change playing style.

Versus normal opponent, check-back flop, and don't call turn raise or river barrel.


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