AA UTG facing river-shove

SB doesn't look like a fish and his line seems super strong. I would fold here.

smells like a set ...

cheers

Fold right there.

I fold turn with ac (what bluff he has?), when he overbet river is face up easy fold

Thanks guys, appreciate it!

Originally posted by pisiattu
I fold turn with ac (what bluff he has?), when he overbet river is face up easy fold

Bluffs could be :club::club: hands that bluff x/r flop and then barrel this turn. Ingame I felt our continueing range is way too capped if we only continue our sets (22, 55, QQ and maybe A3s if we open that UTG, I don't.) facing a 40%-ish turn-barrel. But I guess we can fold turn because we hold the A♣: ourselves?

Could be aggro guy playing with AQ, or then he called pre with something weird like 3c4c. Or then it can be randomly a pure bluff, just today faced a xr OTF and 3 barrel from decent looking reg and he had total air. Anyway even against sets we have 6 outs and villain bets only 1/3 OTT.

MP2 18.18% 18.18% 0.00% AdAc
MP3 81.82% 81.82% 0.00% QQ, 55, 22, AQs, KdJd, 4c3c

Here he has all sets, 4 combos of overplayed TPTK, one combo of draw and one combo of stupid bluff. We have 18% equity and to call break even we need 20%. When we hit we have good implieds.

Yeah, so you would still continue turn?
Btw, the 4c3c combo doesn't count since the 4c is on the turn.

Fold safely OTR, not to many bluffs in his range and the only hand you beat is AQ

Agreed, I would fold OTR as well.

Preflop you are way ahead, on the flop way behind, well played as you gave it a shot trying to catch one of your two outs on two streets, fold the river, cannot beat a full house.

Originally posted by LookAwayNow
Thanks guys, appreciate it!

Originally posted by pisiattu
I fold turn with ac (what bluff he has?), when he overbet river is face up easy fold

Bluffs could be :club::club: hands that bluff x/r flop and then barrel this turn. Ingame I felt our continueing range is way too capped if we only continue our sets (22, 55, QQ and maybe A3s if we open that UTG, I don't.) facing a 40%-ish turn-barrel. But I guess we can fold turn because we hold the A♣: ourselves?

If you have ac he has few/nothing fd

Originally posted by LookAwayNow
Yeah, so you would still continue turn?
Btw, the 4c3c combo doesn't count since the 4c is on the turn.

Yes I would continue turn.
It looks like I was quite tired when I wrote my post. It is true that there is no 4c3c and luckily Equilab excluded that already BUT I accidentally put the river card there too.. So when we do not know the river card yet we actually have 28% equity and that doesn't include possible draws that are played aggressively. So it starts to look like that we get direct odds to call here.

River is a fold.

What range does villain put hero on, why is he overbetting shoving this? He has the nuts. What size would you guys bet here?

River is indeed a fold. Because of the board texture and villains line I would say he has mostly nuts.
We are 100bb deep effectively and since hero called flop xr and turn bet and river didn't change anything I think villains bet size is max EV for him. Hero is either calling or folding, bet size doesn't matter much. Even if villain bet 1/2 maybe hero should be folding here. Also that shove might be often polarized and 1/2 bet looks actually more scary than a shove.

Thanks.

No deep thinking needed unless you are in a meta-gaming session against a player you know very well (or a maniac). Just observe the size of the bet and fold. No hand reading required since you hold only a pair.

Originally posted by la55i

Originally posted by LookAwayNow
Yeah, so you would still continue turn?
Btw, the 4c3c combo doesn't count since the 4c is on the turn.

Yes I would continue turn.
It looks like I was quite tired when I wrote my post. It is true that there is no 4c3c and luckily Equilab excluded that already BUT I accidentally put the river card there too.. So when we do not know the river card yet we actually have 28% equity and that doesn't include possible draws that are played aggressively. So it starts to look like that we get direct odds to call here.

Oh yeah, our equity is quite decent since we also have the straight-draw on the turn, which makes a total of 6 outs vs villain nutted range, with good/decent implieds too which justifies that turn-call vs this sizing.

Interesting stuff, thanks everyone that posted.

I just prefer to fold on the flop. Do you know his XR on the flop? Just suppose what kind of hand he will XR 3X? Sets + Gutshots. Turn actually closes gutshot, so just fold and save extra money.

If you fold overpair vs flop xr you are probably folding everything vs check raises. How exploitable is that?