:Ax::Tx:
Notifications
Clear all
99
Ok, lets go with analyses.
Pre-flop
Our villain is a good reg and he calls 3 bet in position: range villain (small-midpairs t/m JJ/suited broadways/suited aces/slowplayed AA/KK/QQ). Range that too strong to fold and to weak to 4bet even 3-way. Or range to slowplay/trap.
Flop
Check/check. Hmmm. Villains checks behind. Now we can exclude AA/KK/QQ/66/1010 (he would bet for value because of the scared bored) and all suited aces (he would bet as semi bluff/bluff). So we still have small-midpairs t/m 99/suited broadways/).
Turn/River
Bet/call. So we still have suited broadways which has J or 10 in it: KJs/JQs/K10s/A10s/Q10s/AJs or medium pairs 88/99. We can exclude small pairs because its tough to call 2 big bets with it. Its not a winning play in long term and he is a strong player. No lets narrow his suited broadway range.
I dont think that a strong reg TAG player will flat call 3 bet 3 way with QJs/K10s/KJs/Q10s. I think he goes more often for option 4bet/fold. He wil flat call more often with the hands which dominates 3way 3bet range like A10s/AJs.
So now i have AJs/A10s and 88/99. Tough to choose. I like them all. AJs is not a very tough call with a check behind on flop. I feel the same for second pair like A10s. Now 88/99. Lets say 99
He doesnt have sets or two pairs cause he would bet those on this flop and in those few cases he wouldnt he would raise with these on the turn. Call with 99 would be medium heroic, call with AQo or AQs would be extremely heroic. I think he called with ATs (ATo he would more likely 4bet with). He could have called maybe with T9s some of the time, but rather not.
AsKx - villain is on the BU, so there is no sence to 4b pf - he is IP. After X flop IP he most probably missed the flop (only some gutshots AK,AQ, may be ATs in his calling range). He know we do not have nutflush bcs he has As, that is why his hero call is not so bad bcs we has only 2 combos that beats him (KsQs,8s9s) the other are missed. So, we have AsK or AsQ - I think with AQo - he will just 4b fold preflop, AKo just strong enough to call IP.
So, I think it is AsKx
Uno strong regular che openraise da CO penso che abbia almeno JTs+. Quando riceve un call da BB e poi un check su quel flop villain mettere hero su un range speculare, quindi JTs+ (che ovviamente include anche le coppiette). A mio avviso però il check di Villain sul flop esclude un JTs dalla sua mano, perchè con un possibile rischio di colore, vincere un tribettato al flop con una puntata non penso gli dispiaccia troppo. Quindi riduco il suo range a coppietta / 2 figure. Anche AQ di picche è una mano possibile ma che secondo me avrebbe puntato flop, quindi da scartare. La puntata tardiva di Hero sul 2 di fiori esclude abbstanza un J dalla sua mano, forse gli lascia un T. Stesso discorso per il river, se hero avesse avuto un colore avrebbe provato a puntarlo flop, la overbet al river da l'impressione a Villain che Hero possa avere 9Ts o AT o KT o bluff totale (scala mancata). Le 2 undercard turn/river poi diminuiscono il rischio di call per scala bucata e overpair. Credo che l'hero call di villan possa essere stato fatto con 77 / 88 / 99. Vedo improbabile un call di Villain con AK / AQ (anche se in pratica equivalgono a 88 / 99), per via del call al turn che è molto più probabile con coppietta che con AK AQ.
i think he has a-j off and is scared of an over pair so wants to keep the pot low even w all the draws he could be pushing with and has no choice to call the river w a j even tho he might of flushed he has to call and w all the flatting w top pair the whole way!
87s de picas
Es una mano que no tiene valor al SD pero que juega muy bien postflop IP vs 3bet. En el flop se da check behind para cobrar su equity . No tiene sentido apostar ante un fish con Deepstack y que sabes que raramente vas a tirar en ese tipo de board con 3 bet. Ademas sabemos que esta en racha con lo que foldeara menos aun si cabe. Turn no tiene mucha historia, call estandar del reg y en el river ese call del reg yo creo que es con un flush bajo con el que no tiene sentido resubir. Si hubiera resubido casi con total seguridad pienso que el reg tendria un flush con K o A pero no es asi por lo que me decante por 87s. Es una mano que dada la secuencia se puede jugar asi perfectamente.
The villain would open the table possibly with a 44. When he received the 3 bet, the hero, who is very confident on the table and had enough money to risk a bit more, well, puts the hero in a possible AK or AQ and call.
The hero checks on the flop, which can show that he missed it, as if he had JJ+, should defend his game from flush, and if he had the flush draw, he probably made a semi-bluff.
The bet on the turn sounds like a bluff, 2clubs doesnt change anything.
On the river, 5s makes a herocall. The villain put the hero with Ak, AQ, AK probably. The point is: if he has flushdraw, why not raise flop?
So, villains made a herocall with 44