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Hero Folding 4th nuts with 3:1

24 Posts
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omountassir
Joined: 22.11.2008

Hey guys,
Vilain is playing 19 14 over 400 hands, I was played at nl10 Zoom at pokerstars.com
His overall AF is 0.9, AG% 27.

Here is the hand :
$0.05/$0.10 No Limit Holdem
PokerStars
6 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by WeakTight Poker Hand History Converter

Stacks:
UTG Hero ($113.9BB) 114bb
UTG+1 ($123BB) 123bb
CO ($166.2BB) 166bb
BTN ($82BB) 82bb
SB ($135.1BB) 135bb
BB ($100.9BB) 101bb

Pre-Flop: (1.5BB, 6 players) Hero is UTG A♥: Q♥:
Hero raises to 3BB, 4 folds, BB calls 2BB

Flop: 5♥: T♥: J♥: ($6.5BB, 2 players)
BB bets 5BB, Hero raises to 18BB, BB calls 13BB

Turn: K♠: ($42.5BB, 2)
BB checks, Hero bets 28.4BB, BB calls 28.4BB

River: 5♦: ($99.3BB, 2)
BB goes all-in 51.5BB, Hero folds

Final Pot:

Spoiler

$150.8BB

BB wins $197.8BB (net +$96.9BB)

Hero lost $49.4BB


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23 replies
la55i
Joined: 27.01.2013

This indeed looks like a full house. Good fold imo.


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VaskataBuci
Joined: 08.08.2011

Good fold here.


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BelligerentBird
Joined: 08.08.2016

+1 Well played!


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Moderator
SDK1987
Joined: 12.11.2008

Tough fold for sure against any player, but it’s indeed likely you are beat here.
Further I have moved your thread yesterday to the hand discussion forum and posted your full hand history. So you get faster response.

Cheers,
SDK1987


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Tyrion88
Joined: 21.06.2007

Nice hand. You (or the board) block all those other flushes he could call against an UTG open.


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Mozzek
Joined: 16.07.2016

It seems ok to me as well, as villain is reg and his line looks strong. Gj.


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YohanN7
Joined: 15.06.2009

Yes, indeed. You denied him direct odds to call, and you denied him the implied odds. (That said, he probably held K♥:Q♣: and bluffed you out:D)


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msnek
Joined: 01.10.2008

OP: IMHO very very VERY WELL PLAYED ! I do like all the streets. Respect :f_drink:


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xin1575
Joined: 22.10.2015

I haven't looked at the spoiler, but I'm actually going to disagree with everyone else and say this should be a call.

If he has 55, TT, or JJ, I would think villain gets it all-in on the flop to protect from flush draws. Granted, his stats show he is a passive player, but your flop raise looks more like you are on a flush draw rather than having a made flush. And he's probably not playing K5, 5T, or J5 here. He probably also doesn't have KK, since I'm sure he would have raised preflop. So it feels strange that he would actually have a full house here. To me, villain's play feels more like he has a baby flush, maybe A5 that he got sticky with, or KQ (with King of hearts).

Yeah, the river shove looks suspicious, but I think any full houses in his range are minimal. If we just do the math here, let's put villain on a range of: 55, TT, JJ, KK, K(h)5, A5s, K(h)Q, 67hh, 78hh, 89hh...I show we have 40% equity on the river. This is a call from a mathematical aspect.


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la55i
Joined: 27.01.2013

Well you don't have to look at spoiler because you see hero folded, so there is nothing in the spoiler :)

If he had a set OTF he might be scared of flush and not go broke. Hero's raise can very well look like a made flush, which it actually is.
I don't know what hands he is playing like this but his play doesn't make sense at all if it was a baby flush.


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xin1575
Joined: 22.10.2015

Yeah I noticed there's nothing in the spoiler after I posted...I wasn't sure if villain showed his hand after hero folded, so I was playing it safe :)

I agree villain might just be playing his hand scared, and I added those sets into the range calculation. I also think Hero's raise on the flop is fantastic, because the majority of 10NL players will slowplay the nuts and this helps disguise his hand...which is why I believe our villain could play his baby flushes the way he did. Of course, my read could be totally wrong, and I'll accept that...but deep down, my heart says hero could be good here a decent amount of times to make this a worthy call.

It's an interesting hand, omountassir! Thanks for posting it


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Maniatrix
Joined: 01.11.2008

Maybe he had a full house, I just know I could not have folded for a half pot size bet.


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la55i
Joined: 27.01.2013

When hero plays flop and turn like this I would say he most likely reps sets and flushes and villain should see that. When hero's range is that, it makes no sense to donk shove river when it pairs, maybe he tries to rep a full house and make hero fold but that would be bad for several reasons: 1. hero has full houses in his range too 2. it is bad to turn his showdown value into a bluff.

If villain has a set I think he could very well play like this. With something like bottom set he might not want to go crazy on the flop. He has still some outs and can call flop and turn. So I would say his river donk shove was 90% sure a full house.


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nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

I like it as played. The possibility of a full house is really big and it is the micros, so wp.


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scopinad
Joined: 13.06.2015

Nice hand. You are not obliged to catch a bluff every single time.
Mark it as variance.


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nsavov
Joined: 24.09.2010

Originally posted by Maniatrix
Maybe he had a full house, I just know I could not have folded for a half pot size bet.

Yeah, this. I would have convinced myself that maybe he would be raising the flop with a set sometimes but play a flush this way other times. :f_mad:


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squaddeuce
Joined: 30.08.2012

Why couldn't the board have paired with the K♥:?
Kind of takes the guesswork out of it. ;)


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omountassir
Joined: 22.11.2008

Thank you guys for you answers !


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Maniatrix
Joined: 01.11.2008

Originally posted by nitrol
I like it as played. The possibility of a full house is really big and it is the micros, so wp.

Makes me more likely to call.


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