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AA on the K Q J board

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BelligerentBird
Joined: 08.08.2016

PokerStars - $0.05 NL - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

MP: 100.2 BB (VPIP: 18.18, PFR: 9.09, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 11)
MP+1: 100 BB (VPIP: 14.34, PFR: 11.24, 3Bet Preflop: 3.19, Hands: 262)
MP+2: 120 BB (VPIP: 30.30, PFR: 18.18, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 33)
CO: 238.2 BB (VPIP: 26.36, PFR: 6.98, 3Bet Preflop: 1.67, Hands: 132)
BTN: 98.6 BB (VPIP: 11.11, PFR: 10.68, 3Bet Preflop: 4.40, Hands: 700)
SB: 100 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 1)
BB: 100 BB (VPIP: 9.77, PFR: 8.25, 3Bet Preflop: 4.03, Hands: 394)
Hero (UTG): 135.2 BB
UTG+1: 113 BB (VPIP: 15.00, PFR: 12.36, 3Bet Preflop: 7.21, Hands: 650)

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has A♥ A♦

Hero raises to 4 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, CO calls 4 BB, fold, fold, BB calls 3 BB

Flop: (12.4 BB, 3 players) K♥ J♦ Q♦
BB checks, Hero bets 7.8 BB, fold, BB calls 7.8 BB

Turn: (28 BB, 2 players) 7♠
BB checks, Hero checks

River: (28 BB, 2 players) 8♣
BB bets 13.4 BB, Hero calls 13.4 BB

Hi guys! On the river required equity for a call is 24% and if we add just one draw hand (for example KT) in his range besides two pairs, sets and straight, than it's enough equity for a call.
And I don't really believe in QQ and JJ sets - I think they would raise OTF. But from the other hand this guy has VPIP 10 and PFR 8 - the gap is so small, that his calling range must consist only from pocket pairs. So I put him mostly on bluffing TT and slowplayed JJ and QQ. What do you think?


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6 replies
Moderator
SDK1987
Joined: 12.11.2008

His stats look very tight and the question if he’s capable to bluff in that kind of spots, because you can only beat a bluff. I would most likely give him credit for a hand, because he’s never calling the flop with nothing when you are betting in to 2 players. He will have a lot of 2 pair combo’s and even sets in his range and you can only beat a missed flush draw.

Cheers,
SDK1987


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Mozzek
Joined: 16.07.2016

I would call the river. I believe villain does this often with top pair and bluffs. He might have some 2 pairs, but as we checked the turn, he perceives us to be weak, so we can´t that his line is strong. The small size of the pot makes me also comfortable with calling this.


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MyFloXyBabY
Joined: 15.02.2010

I call the river as played because it's the whole point of the line, or else why not bet/folding turn ?
You can't bet/call turn or bet turn and check/call river, so I think checking turn and calling river is best.


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la55i
Joined: 27.01.2013

This line looks ok. I think betting turn and check folding river wouldn't be bad either.


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StruxXx
Joined: 18.12.2015

Fold. We're not beating anything reasonable except bluffs.
10/8 is not a bluffy type of player, and people dont bluff that often on this level.
Even the bet size looks like - please call me

I'm folding my aces here


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Mooses
Joined: 09.02.2014

glgl


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