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Combo draw x heavy action on flop

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Polezi
Joined: 13.08.2009

Prima, $0.10/$0.20 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

Hero (SB): $24.07 (120.4 bb)
BB: $18 (90 bb)
UTG: $40.91 (204.6 bb)
MP: $31.89 (159.5 bb) VPIP: 25, PFR: 19, 3B: 8, AF: 2,8, Hands: 1932
CO: $20.30 (101.5 bb)
BTN: $21.59 (108 bb) VPIP: 25, PFR: 20, 3B: 7, AF: 2,7, Hands: 980

Preflop: Hero is SB with T♣ 8♣
UTG folds, MP raises to $0.60, CO folds, BTN calls $0.60, Hero calls $0.50, BB folds

Flop: ($2) 3♣ 9♣ T♠ (3 players)
Hero checks, MP bets $1.60, BTN raises to $4.80, Hero??

Two regs, maybe I could squeeze there, but there a donkey in bb. With a heavy action like this my combo draw lose value I think, should I just fold here?


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9 replies
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SDK1987
Joined: 12.11.2008

I’m no fan of defending T8s out of position, but as played I don’t think our top pair will be good and you aren’t drawing for the nuts either. I would fold the flop for sure against so much action.

Cheers,
SDK1987


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VaskataBuci
Joined: 08.08.2011

Yeah just fold. They have all sets and better draws.


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la55i
Joined: 27.01.2013

When facing this action OTF I would just fold. They can have better made hands and better draws. So even if you hit something strong you might be behind and end up losing a lot.


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plopfessional
Joined: 21.09.2016

I think T8s is a very clear fold pre. In fact, I think you shouldn't call many hands at all in this spot.
Really tough spot otf. I mean there is not that much BTN can have... It depends a bit on the player. Would he really call with 33 pre? Since we have a T there would not be to many combos he can raise here. I guess he has QcJc, KcJc, KcQc and 6 Combos TT-99,T9s for value... I don't see how to play a turn here oop. So it is fold or ship. If we ship MP will probably fold everything that is behind vs a set. IMO his calling range should be TT-99, QcJc, KcJc, KcQc (7 Combos).

Against TT-99,T9s,KcQc,KcJc,QcJc we have 28% equity. We need 45% Fold Equity for our shove to be profitable. I'm sure MP will fold 90% of his range but I really fail to come up with enough bluff combos for BTN. I would not assume he has enough, but if he raises all KJs, KQs,QJs, 87s, 7c6c a shove becomes +EV.


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Dadramel
Joined: 10.08.2014

You can't expect BTN has overpairs flatting pre-flop & because of that fold's the best solution here.


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la55i
Joined: 27.01.2013

Originally posted by plopfessional
I think T8s is a very clear fold pre. In fact, I think you shouldn't call many hands at all in this spot. [...] It depends a bit on the player. Would he really call with 33 pre?

Imo vs open and call T8s is a standard call, no problems there. We get a good price.
And yes BTN could and should call 33 pre. It is a profitable set mine and he is in position.


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MikeIronTyson
Joined: 20.10.2016

Fold for sure imo


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plopfessional
Joined: 21.09.2016

Originally posted by Dadramel
You can't expect BTN has overpairs flatting pre-flop & because of that fold's the best solution here.

I did not include any overpairs in BTNs range. I think JJ would be a decent flat pre.

Originally posted by la55i
Imo vs open and call T8s is a standard call, no problems there. We get a good price.
And yes BTN could and should call 33 pre. It is a profitable set mine and he is in position.

By default i would disagree here, especially on NL25, maybe starting at NL50. The "donkey in bb" changes things a lot. With a fish in the BB both calls seem good.
Problem with calling 33 is that SB,BB can squeeze forcing you out. Also if you get it in, set over set and combodraws are a real possibility and a good reg might be able to fold some very strong hands if you start raising a lot postflop. And with 33 you can virtually never continue vs a cbet (unless you have a set).
T8s out of position vs two players is just a very marginal hand. My main concern is that we have to squeeze a lot out of the SB, AQ and TT lose a lot of value if we just flat oop*. Thus our calling range becomes way to weak and we have to fold way to many hands. I am pretty certain that we overfold most flops vs cbets.

*calling AQ: x/f all flops it does not hit 3way. If you hit and get triple barreled you are most likely chopping at best.
3-betting puts a lot of pressure on BTN who seems to flat to wide and we can cbet a lot of flops to get folds. If we get 4bet I would be confident to be behind.
calling TT,JJ: If we flop an overpair we have really trouble protecting it. MP will probably check a lot of his AK combos. If we don't flop an overpair have a really difficult time to realize our equity in case MP missed. Imo you are degrading them to mostly set mining (which is certainly profitable)


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Mozzek
Joined: 16.07.2016

I fold OTF. It´s MW and there is raise OTF. That´s very strong and we have just FD (TP is no good imo).


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