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BTN vs BB KK 150 deep - fold to 5bet?

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SPeedFANat1c
Joined: 04.01.2009

iPoker - €0.20 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 3 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (BTN): 152.25 BB
SB: 97.85 BB
BB: 159.2 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has K♦ K♣

Hero raises to 2.5 BB, fold, BB raises to 11 BB, Hero raises to 24 BB, BB raises to 37 BB, Hero ?

26/22, fold to 4b 17 (6), 5bet+ 11 (9), 2k hands

I am thinking they are never bluffing there.

I get good odds, but I will not see river when he has aces because he will bet bet bet, and so I will not realize my equity.

Update:

3b vs BTN open is 13. Which is not huge for this position. Overall 3bet is 8.


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13 replies
la55i
Joined: 27.01.2013

Doesn't seem to fold much vs 4bets and his 5bet is kinda big too? And you have a nice sample.
Maybe he has AK or sometimes even QQ?
Dunno but I think I would never be able to fold KK here and calling doesn't seem like the best option.


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Moderator
SDK1987
Joined: 12.11.2008

In a 3-handed game I can’t really fold KK. Even after his clicking back 5bet he can still have weaker hands than AA I think. I would stack off for sure.

Cheers,
SDK1987


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MikeIronTyson
Joined: 20.10.2016

In a 3 handed game especially i would not have folded it


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briccius
Joined: 26.06.2007

I could not fold this. What would the stats have to be for me to fold this? Do the numbers (5bet+ 11) mean that he 5bets 11% of all hands he gets 4bet? I would also like to see 3bet stat, then...

GTO wise, with his 4bet, Hero is risking 21.5 to win 14, so if villain folds more than 21.5/(21.5+14)=0.6= 60%, Hero will make autoprofit with 4betting any two. So Villain needs to defend 40% of his 3bets by either calling Hero´s 4bet or 5betting. Being oop, Villain should not call 4bets too much, but 5bet shove instead. Small 5bet like this is basically the same as a shove, committing villain.

So his 11% stat indicates that he does not defend vs 4bets enough. But what range it really is, and if KK could be folded here, you can only tell if you look at his 3bet stat. Am I right?

Also, the fact that you are playing 3handed was pointed out already. We do not know if he adjusts his ranges accordingly, though.


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SPeedFANat1c
Joined: 04.01.2009

So his 11% stat indicates that he does not defend vs 4bets enough. But what range it really is, and if KK could be folded here, you can only tell if you look at his 3bet stat. Am I right?

3b vs BTN open is 13. Which is not huge for this position. Overall 3bet is 8.

13 * 0.11 = 1.43 % he 5bets. Plus I block KK. So looks only AA to me :)

GTO yea, of couse he has to bluff, but I think he plays far from optima there :)

Small 5bet like this is basically the same as a shove, committing villain.

Small also can be to induce shoves or light calls.


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SDK1987
Joined: 12.11.2008

Don’t forget those stats are most likely not based on 3 handed play at all. This way it’s likely that these stats are unreliable. Especially with stats that you need a decent sample on like 4bet and 5bet stats.


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slippyjim
Joined: 07.10.2011

Its weird he 3bets big then min 5bets.
I'm not entirely happy about it but I still get it all in


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Marcoamma
Joined: 21.09.2016

You have 57% equity vs this range: QQ+, AQs+, AKo.

Vs KK+, AKo, AKs you have 43,79% and he have 49,20% with 7% tie.

I think i always get broke on this spot.


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briccius
Joined: 26.06.2007

13 * 0.11 = 1.43 % he 5bets. Plus I block KK. So looks only AA to me :)

Actually 1.43% is more like AA,KK,QQ (that would be 1.36% according to equilab). So, even if you block KK, he will have just as many QQ as he will have AA. With the odds you are getting, that means you cannot fold.

And this way you have not even accounted for the fact that you are 3handed yet.

Of course sample size is too small, but this is the spot to increase sample size :)


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la55i
Joined: 27.01.2013

I think it is not even important to think about villains range. KK is very strong and you can see him go broke with weaker hands.
If it is AAvKK, it doesn't matter because the next time you will have AA and he will have KK.


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300warrior
Joined: 02.12.2008

You need a very good read or unusual stats to put him on exactly AA here and you are not even near that.

I would call the 5b and play post even with low SPR. I think it's better then 6betting and obv. better then folding.


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SDK1987
Joined: 12.11.2008

Originally posted by 300warrior
You need a very good read or unusual stats to put him on exactly AA here and you are not even near that.

I would call the 5b and play post even with low SPR. I think it's better then 6betting and obv. better then folding.

A 6bet will be an all-inn for you most likely or not?
Calling with 1/5 of your starting stack already in the middle is tricky. I don’t think I will do that with KK.


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I would push. Your way ahead of his range and on the off chance he has AA, you still have about 20% equity. Even if he never bluffs here, I'd still say it warrants a call.


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