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Set over set - Can I ever find a fold here ?

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YunQi595
Joined: 17.12.2016

PokerStars - $0.10 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

(BTN): 160.9 BB (VPIP: 32.82, PFR: 23.28, 3Bet Preflop: 9.18, Hands: 265)
Hero (SB): 310.3 BB
(BB): 102.4 BB (VPIP: 23.33, PFR: 18.67, 3Bet Preflop: 12.59, Hands: 309)
Villain (UTG): 246.1 BB (VPIP: 24.24, PFR: 19.70, 3Bet Preflop: 15.38, Hands: 66)
(MP): 89 BB (VPIP: 22.92, PFR: 16.67, 3Bet Preflop: 4.76, Hands: 49)
(CO): 100 BB (VPIP: 20.17, PFR: 14.29, 3Bet Preflop: 4.55, Hands: 120)

Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, reeqar posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 4♠ 4♥

Villain raises to 3 BB, fold, fold, SB calls 3 BB, Hero calls 2.5 BB, fold

Flop: (10 BB, 3 players) 9♥ T♣ 4♣
Hero checks, Villain bets 7.2 BB, fold, Hero raises to 21.5 BB, Villain calls 14.3 BB

Turn: (53 BB, 2 players) 3♠
Hero bets 35 BB, Villain calls 35 BB

River: (123 BB, 2 players) A♠
Hero bets 66 BB, Villain raises to 186.6 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 120.6 BB

Spoiler

Villain shows A♣ A♥ (Three of a Kind, Aces)
(Pre 81%, Flop 13%, Turn 5%)
Hero shows 4♠ 4♥ (Three of a Kind, Fours)
(Pre 19%, Flop 87%, Turn 95%)
Villain wins 481.2 BB


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2 replies
briccius
Joined: 26.06.2007

The problem is that you have to put him on AA specifically - 99 and TT he probably would raise again OTF or OTT. But if the only value hand that beats you is only 3 combos, it is a tough fold to make. If you think he sometimes slowplays TT,99 despite the drawy board it becomes slightly easier but still tough.

I think the only way to find a fold here is to say ok he is a reg, he raises me on the river for 250 bbs effective when I have bet all the way and I certainly do not look like I am folding, it is the micros, so it has to be AA and make an exploitative fold.

He looks like a decent player with his stats, so I do not think he could have AT in this spot, let alone overplay it like that. He might turn KcQc into a bluff or something similar, but I don´t think this will happen often enough (ok, you only need to be good around 24%, so it is hard to tell. But in utg I think he has relatively few SC combos in his opening range that he could turn into bluffs here, given he would do that in the first place).


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nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

Well, this is a nasty situation and no-one will blame you for calling.
You have to be very careful when that deep though.


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