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top2p single raised pot facing xr

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pizdunar
Joined: 01.08.2014

Hero (CO): 239.25 BB
BTN: 313 BB (VPIP: 53.53, PFR: 5.32, 3Bet Preflop: 2.81, Hands: 2,734)
SB: 322 BB (VPIP: 23.39, PFR: 4.59, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 219)
BB: 245.25 BB (VPIP: 39.63, PFR: 21.20, 3Bet Preflop: 1.19, Hands: 226)
UTG: 101.5 BB (VPIP: 54.18, PFR: 36.19, 3Bet Preflop: 17.34, Hands: 490)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 8♠ A♠ K♦ 9♥

UTG calls 1 BB, Hero raises to 4.5 BB, fold, fold, BB calls 3.5 BB, UTG calls 3.5 BB

Flop: (14 BB, 3 players) A♥ 9♠ 7♣
BB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets 9.5 BB, BB calls 9.5 BB, UTG raises to 41 BB, Hero calls 31.5 BB, BB calls 31.5 BB

Turn: (137 BB, 3 players) J♥
BB checks, UTG bets 56 BB and is all-in, fold, fold

OTF I think he can have 77, 99, A9, wraps, A7+OESD even though he looks aggro he's not wider than that probably. So is just a peel to see turn ok? I think so. When we're 3way I think turn hits the caller behind well so with str8 possible clear fold, if we were HU it's still a fold I think. But on bricks like 2h do we call right when he shoves?


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4 replies
Coach
Kyyberi
Joined: 09.07.2010

When you want to peel the turn, what turns are you happy to call his shove? And what do you think is his c-raising range on the flop?


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pizdunar
Joined: 01.08.2014

I already wrote all that. His xr range: OTF I think he can have 77, 99, A9, wraps, A7+OESD
Turn never said I'd peel. 3w def fold on this turn. if brick I was thinking of jamming since we have now more equity against draws.

but probably it's fold on the flop since he doesn't have draws when raising over two.


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Coach
Kyyberi
Joined: 09.07.2010

I would fold on the flop. I don't think he is raising just a wrap as you can have a made hand and there is a caller that can have slowplayed stuff or a draw. So his raising range is most likely for value. And against his value range you are crushed.

After the call you have less than a pot sized bet left on the turn and opponent is likely to shove any turn. 3way he has 1/3 pot left and if HU he has half a pot left. Your hand isn't going to improve against his range unless you hit A or 9 (or at least a spade) so you are facing a small turn shove without improving. What does calling achieve compared to flop shove?

If his range is what you said on the flop, what is your equity vs. him? And how often you will have the best equity on the turn?


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pizdunar
Joined: 01.08.2014

Hey, only got to it. Yes you are totally right. You mde good point about not being much money left on the turn, his xr range being stronger over two players, not many cards to improve(not even backdoors), and good equity questions+our 8 blocks his bluffs.

Board: Ah9s7c
Equity Wins Ties
MP2: 44.40% 35.07% 9.33% { AsKd9h8s }
MP3: 55.60% 46.27% 9.33% { A9, 77, 99, A7T8, JT8, T86, 865 }

Board: Ah9s7c2d
Equity Wins Ties
MP2: 43.89% 32.38% 11.51% { AsKd9h8s }
MP3: 56.11% 44.60% 11.51% { A9, 77, 99, A7T8, JT8, T86, 865 }

Board: Ah9s7c
Equity Wins Ties
MP2: 38.72% 23.98% 14.74% { AsKd9h8s }
MP3: 61.28% 46.54% 14.74% { A9, 77, 99, A7T8, JT86, T865 }

Board: Ah9s7c2d
Equity Wins Ties
MP2: 29.85% 10.87% 18.98% { AsKd9h8s }
MP3: 70.15% 51.17% 18.98% { A9, 77, 99, A7T8, JT86, T865 }

This was the reason I though call flop jam brick turns is okay. On the flop we're flipping with draws OTT we're way ahead if he has 13outers+

Board: Ah9s7c
Equity Wins Ties
MP2: 52.74% 51.83% 0.91% { AsKd9h8s }
MP3: 47.26% 46.35% 0.91% { JT8, T86, 865 }

Board: Ah9s7c2d
Equity Wins Ties
MP2: 65.30% 65.30% 0.00% { AsKd9h8s }
MP3: 34.70% 34.70% 0.00% { JT8, T86, 865 }
->from 50/50 to 65/35

If he only had 16/17 outers:

Board: Ah9s7c
Equity Wins Ties
MP2: 48.32% 47.48% 0.84% { AsKd9h8s }
MP3: 51.68% 50.84% 0.84% { JT86, T865 }

Board: Ah9s7c
Equity Wins Ties
MP2: 47.31% 46.29% 1.03% { AsKd9h8s }
MP3: 52.69% 51.66% 1.03% { JT86, T865, T86 }

Board: Ah9s7c2d
Equity Wins Ties
MP2: 59.93% 59.93% 0.00% { AsKd9h8s }
MP3: 40.07% 40.07% 0.00% { JT86, T865, T86 }
->we get from 50/50 to 60/40

Board: Ah9s7c2h
Equity Wins Ties
MP2: 56.74% 56.74% 0.00% { AsKd9h8s }
MP3: 43.26% 43.26% 0.00% { JT86, T865, T86 }
->considering we don't have BDFD if it comes it's even more likely he has it

We'll have the worst hand on the turn versus draws 1 in 3 or 1 in 3.5 times, fwiw.

It's basically a spot where we're either flipping or behind and that sucks with high spr. Good hand


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