SH AQo, SB vs UTG&MP, TPGK in Squeezed Pot

Easiest call in your life and u missed it.

Why is it so easy?

Originally posted by Fanko
Easiest call in your life and u missed it.

Damn!

If you are not going to call on that blank river you should not squeeze preflop as this is pretty much the board you want to see with your hand.

The preflop squeeze vs UTG +MP with this hand is more as a bluff and I do not agree it is that easy to call on river.

Agree with Nitrol preflop is more of a bluff squeezing from the SB vs these positions and i do like the squeeze pre.

As for villains range on the river it's likely TT AK and perhaps 66 ATs for value. And the bluff side of his range really only consists of KQ clubs which you have a blocker to and KJ clubs i dont expect QQ JJ to turn into bluffs. Vs that range you have around 15% equity and calling isn't going to be profitable. Its possible 66 AT aren't in villains calling range pre so his range could be TT AK KQs and your equity drops off to 8%. And you need around 30% for a break even call.

I might of gone for a check somewhere earlier than the river perhaps turn is better for a check fold/call and then check fold river if they jam , perhaps you can even check flop and get one or two streets of value from JJ QQ later on. I don't think were in good shape going for multiple streets of value on this board from these positions.

I actually think Alleen that your evaluation of the hand is really good

I also agree it's not an easy call OTR. We should talk in terms of ranges, odds and equity and try to make arguments why something is easy/not easy, imo.

Preflop squeeze is not a pure value squeeze, ofcourse. I don't expect to be called with alot of worse hands and I'm definitelly not a huge (or any) favorite if someone calls. It's like a preflop semi-bluff, but the EV of squeezing is better than calling, especially if there is no fish in the hand or in the BB. I also play a merged strategy on the SB.

I think OTR it comes to how we percieve his preflop calling range and flop/turn calling ranges. If all left combos of KQs (we block some) are in his preflop range and he is calling a gutshot OTF and OTR with them and is capable of bluffing the river, then we maybe have a marginal river call. In reality, I think he will have maybe 1 combo of KQ and the rest will be TPTK+ (maybe even not TPTK). Probably we can expect to see something like this:

Board: 6♣A♠T♥ 2♣ 3♦
       Equity     Win     Tie
MP2    81.25%  75.00%   6.25% { TT, 6d6h, AQs, AdKd, AhKh, KhQh, AhKd }
SB     18.75%  12.50%   6.25% { AdQc }

We need 23% to call so I think check/folding is optimal.

It is nowhere near marginal, if i am vs you and u take that line and sizings i am shoving 100% river. U too scared to play.

On another note, I am going into check/call from the turn given no info.

Whats wrong with the sizings ? i guess if your going for a 3 street game to set up a 1/2p river shove OP then like 6 on otf 10 ott jam river would be correct.

So perhaps the small turn bet can look like a scared hand. You can bet the same amount by the turn while looking like you have a far stronger range i guess.

I don't agree it's a trivial call though.

Originally posted by Fanko
It is nowhere near marginal, if i am vs you and u take that line and sizings i am shoving 100% river. U too scared to play.

But which range do you assign him to bet the river with vs which you have more than 23% of equity?

I also don't see a point in shoving 100% range on the river vs anyone and turn some value hands into bluffs.

http://www.pokerstrategy.com
Board: AsTh6c2c3d
Equity Win Tie
MP2 52.00% 52.00% 0.00% { AcQd }
MP3 48.00% 48.00% 0.00% { QQ-TT, AKs, ATs, KcQc, QcJc, JcTc, Tc9c, AKo }

Originally posted by Fanko
http://www.pokerstrategy.com
Board: AsTh6c2c3d
Equity Win Tie
MP2 52.00% 52.00% 0.00% { AcQd }
MP3 48.00% 48.00% 0.00% { QQ-TT, AKs, ATs, KcQc, QcJc, JcTc, Tc9c, AKo }

Imo QJ, JT and T9 shouldn't be in his preflop calling range, some players even don't call KQs. Also, not all players will call the flop with KQs when SB bets into two in squeezed pot. Also, QQ-JJ will usually be happy to check back the river. If we would have an info that this villain is loose/aggressive, then I think your ranges would be fine.

Originally posted by Fanko
http://www.pokerstrategy.com
Board: AsTh6c2c3d
Equity Win Tie
MP2 52.00% 52.00% 0.00% { AcQd }
MP3 48.00% 48.00% 0.00% { QQ-TT, AKs, ATs, KcQc, QcJc, JcTc, Tc9c, AKo }

Villain wont be turning JJ QQ into a bluff 100% of the time so id only add 50% combos of them if you think they are capable of getting to the river with those hands and turning them into a bluff . Id only put 50% of the sc combos you assigned as'well and with that range youd have 29% equity .If villain is capable of merging with AJ and shoving on occasions aswell , ill add one combo for that then your equity is 33%.

Still not a super easy call imo , but you do have a point that its possible we can be Vs a range where we have enough equity to call. I'm not sure how valid these types of range are or how often those hands get turned into bluffs or if people are capable of merging with worse Ax though at these stakes often enough.

Be interesting to hear some other people thoughts as'well.

I don't know whether we have enough equity to call. The problem is that villain is almost placing a psb. The question we also could ask is; does villain know we have a good Ace and are we capable of folding this good Ace?
What would your thoughts be when you are UTG? Does it make sense to bet a better Ace or 2p? Is your range perceived stronger on UTG and SB knows it?

I think this is a good spot for third-level thinking and go into villain's mind.

I think if you check call the turn, he might be less inclined to bet again on the river as a bluff. Your line might look stronger this way.

Flop sizing is bad imo, would go no more than 1/3 of the pot. Actually, he might turn his showdown value hands otr into a bluff given that your sizings are suspicious, but vs unknown, I would just make fold. Now I'm thinking that you might want x/c some AQ otf, given you are against UTG and MP, it's kinda marginal. x/c turn is a good line but depends on what sizing UTG bets.

I agree with 1/3 flop size. That's why I made a weird turn size (a bit below 1/3) to have 1/2 of the pot OTR. There are two problems with check/calling the turn imo: 1) I don't set a price and 2) I'm giving free cards. I don't want to see J and potentially K or any OTR (I block nut flushdraws so is probably not that bad).

I play lower stakes, so take it with a grain of salt, but aren't you "inviting" the Villain to bluff you with the almost PSB OTR by betting this small OTT though? By betting this small, you are showing just what you have - a somewhat weakish Ace, maybe something like QQ or KK and showing that you clearly don't want to see a big bet OTR. X/c to a reasonable bet OTT may have somewhat prevented that. Giving a free card is not great, but you are not that scared of FDs, so there are not that many bad cards.

Originally posted by MrHappie
I play lower stakes, so take it with a grain of salt, but aren't you "inviting" the Villain to bluff you with the almost PSB OTR by betting this small OTT though? By betting this small, you are showing just what you have - a somewhat weakish Ace, maybe something like QQ or KK and showing that you clearly don't want to see a big bet OTR. X/c to a reasonable bet OTT may have somewhat prevented that. Giving a free card is not great, but you are not that scared of FDs, so there are not that many bad cards.

With that turn size I have $26,5 OTR and the pot is $60 so I can still check/fold I think. With a bigger size or if, for example, I check/call 1/2 bet OTT, I will have $18,5 OTR and the pot will be $76 so when I check and he bets, my pot odds to call will be 16% and I don't think I have an option to check/fold anymore. As I said above, I think my flop size should be smaller.