This one is bugging me and want to do it the right way.
I want to define an opponent's calling range in the most accurate way.
That's it ♠_cool:
I'll start with a hand and provide my own thinking, then you decide if it's good or abysmally wrong.
Then i take my beating and a better way to calculate these ranges from all of you.
OK i go and provide the situation and some hypothetical history between me and an opponent.
Say, i am on CO with 8bb and ATs. Say i saw my BB opponent with 32bb calls a 12bb BTN shove with KQo 2 hands ago.
Using a chart this is probably a shove. Fine and peachy.
Let's say i don't have a chart and want to do the hard but the most accurate way, by taking into account my opponents calling range (what's missing from hand charts).
Here's the assumptions i would make:
* Based on the situation 2 hands ago, he called with KQo, therefore i assume he has a calling range of 9%
* Based on pusher's position (BTN) i assume he calls wider than if the pusher was UTG, therefore his calling range of 9% may not be true for UTG pushers
* Based on pusher's stack (12bb) i assume he calls wider than if the pusher had a stack say 20bb effective
* Finally, i assume my BB opponent makes use of all the above
Now from all of this i have the following conclusions (somehow obvious):
* BB calls a push based on pusher's position
* BB calls a push based on pusher's effective stack
Therefore, BB's calling range is basically calculated by 2 things:
1. pusher's position
2. effective stack
Finally on my hypothetical hand above i expect him to call me with a calling range wider than 9%, perhaps about 15% (this is guessed), because:
1. BTN is later than CO
2. Effective size is 8bb rather 12bb
My question using the conclusion:
It's accurate to say that my BB opponent calls at least 9% with 12bb effective from BTN?
I know of course that there are other stuff to consider like table image, ICM etc. I just want a starting point to correctly analyze situations and build my strategy and methodology using some facts the correct way.
It's easy to say "blah i have KJs and believe he calls 10% of the time on my shove". Yeah right, how the heck did you just calculated that he calls 10% of the time i would ask ♠_evil:
Thanx for any help.
PS. i know that you can make an ICM-based push but you still need accurate calling ranges, so my question.
