KJo - Do you agree with the shove on the Turn

Originally posted by ldmariodl28
Anyway that being said, a reg in the CO came for the ride. He is a 26/20. I have 549 hands on him and he is pretty aggressive pre flop, but not aggressive post flop so I had some fold equity against him.

Dunno, but his lines seems reasonable aggressive to me suddenly then... That should have had some alarm bells ringing :).

He'll fold worse hands but will call with better I think.

So I get my King on the Turn and now im pretty confident I have the best hand.

My plan is to raise him if and when he does bet

You must think about his calling range, when you raise, not for his betting range. This is a huge mistake. You can't justify that. No way...
Actually your turn "the best hand" into a bluff. Some regs will fold 99. . If they are good. Only the nuts...But if he have some suitable note for you, he can't fold 99 ♦.
Good reg will use a different size on the turn.

Have to agree with insomnia and add stuff myself to that.

Your reasoning mario on the turn isn't entirely correct. Why can't villain have QT here? If i hold this myself in this spot i will always stab on the flop. You didn't show any aggression so you having a good ace isn't likely -> Thus we have alot of foldequity as the CO and we already have a great draw.

Also after you both call his bet, I expect him to slow down alot with his thinner valuebets and bluffs. What's left in his betting range is becoming a lot stronger then. So your KJ becomes more of a bluffcatcher. And this also goes in line with what insomnia says that you turn your KJ into a bluff, what do you expect him to bet/CALL here that you beat?

2) he is not aggressive post flop, so I had some fold equity here.

Can you see the flaw in your own reasoning here?

now he IS aggressive so you have LESS fold equity.

I'm just curious if letting the flop go is the better option here actually, he's betting into MP and fish afterall and our outs don't seem clean

Turn think about what you represent after you check call the flop 3way
-literally 0 bluffs, the J is a diamond so it's hard to even imagine some JXdd hands that you check called on the flop and now jam with equity + blocking AJ KJ JJ
So if he's smart he should be actually in a rough spot even with A9s here and never call you with worse.
I think we can fold A9 easily vs pretty much any microreg actually in villain's shoes, so you'd bluff me off of that, and AJ I'd probably find a fold too

I agreed with guys, I have also some thoughts for you.

I am not sure if we have clear call on turn, I dont think about raise here. We are in 3way spot and he keeps betting on turn (and you told he is passive postflop - which means he bets with stronger hands than other regs).

At this point im putting him either on Jx himself or maybe Ax which I beat. My only real fear here is he doesnt show AJ.

You think he can bet with Jx twice in 3way spot? When you know he is tight postflop? Second thought, he can show more than AJ. Your reasoning for QT can be right sometimes, but I think its reasonable bet for him after two checks with good draw. Nevermind, he still can have A9, 99 if we know he is loose PF.

There is a 9 out there too, but I dont fear 99 because there is only a 10% chance he has 99 since its hard to flop a set.

I think this is bad reasoning. You must think with entire range on flop. I will show you an example. Imagine we play against fish, who in 100% cases opens AA with 6BB sizing. Imagine you know this 100% sure. Its less than 1% he has AA before he makes some action but when he opens with 6BB sizing, you are 100% sure, he has AA. I hope you understand what I want to say. You cant cut his range only because is unlikely.

After all, I think shove is not good, but if you want to raise in this case, sizing (shove) is the best option. Doesnt make sense raise 80% of your stack.

GL

Wow I'm really glad I posted this hand! Such great feedback and after thinking about it your right.

Also the more I think about this hand I think a fold on the flop was the better option. I only had 5 outs which is 20% to the Turn (4 x 5) and the pot odds were 29% which was not a profitable bet to begin with, add in that I'm betting with middle pair and at this point I'm beat by any A.

I threw this into flopzilla with about an 8% Cold Calling Range (TT-22,AQo-AJo,KQo,AQs-ATs,KQs-KJs,QJs )

On the Turn, im having him betting with this range (99,AQo-AJo,AQs-ATs,KJs), but what I didnt factor in is, if I do shove, would he shove with worse hands, and of course when you take out the top pair you get (99,AJo,AJs,KJs), and the best im doing here is a chop if I dont hit the full house.

Im kind of disappointed in myself that I didn't for one fold the flop which is something I would do if I'm not getting the right odds to call, and even more that I did poor hand reading which is a skill I'm working to improve every day. I'm actually glad I lost this hand because if I won, everything here would have been masked by a big win.