PKO 22 $, 40 left. River to bluff or not to bluff?

I made your picture visible for you. I would normal just fold QTo from early position, because it’s a hand that doesn’t play well out of position and I don’t think the table is tight enough that you get them all to fold often in spots like this.

I expect he can have some better hands like KQo and QJo in his range as well. I don’t think it’s too profitable to raise the turn. Then you isolate yourself against better.

Cheers,
SDK1987

I cant imagine playing it any differently

Originally posted by SDK1987
I made your picture visible for you.
*Thank you. idk why i cant copy paste like i done in past.

I would normal just fold QTo from early position, because it’s a hand that doesn’t play well out of position and I don’t think the table is tight enough that you get them all to fold often in spots like this.
* i fold it like <90% for sure. but as chip leader on table its fine can put lot of pressure on opponents with rangeadvantage and that deep.

I expect he can have some better hands like KQo and QJo in his range as well.
*yeah could, but rather unlikly in my view, its just bad to reraise flop in my view.

I don’t think it’s too profitable to raise the turn. Then you isolate yourself against better.
*true. its rather a break even move.

but u agree on the bluff shove?
Thank you
pleasecallit

Originally posted by SDK1987
I would normal just fold QTo from early position, because it’s a hand that doesn’t play well out of position and I don’t think the table is tight enough that you get them all to fold often in spots like this.

I think this is true in general and agree to that, but we are forgetting the fact that this is a PKO and we could easily call a shove from one of the two shorties since the bounty will mostly make up for the needed equity for a +EV call. I expect bounty's will be interesting enough in this stage of the tournament, but since there is no info about its just speculating.

OT: I really like your analysis. It shows understanding of BB defendranges, xr ranges and combo counting. I think i would play this hand pretty much the same.

I don’t think it’s too profitable to raise the turn. Then you isolate yourself against better.

+1 with SDK here; and we would need some more reads or (barrel) stats to empower this move. That 7 is actually a very good card for us, so I think calling is better to keep all of his (semi)bluffs in.

Food for thought:
I would like bluff shove river a lot more because of two reasons:
1) it's very hard for villain to show up with a strong ace on the river, give the action pre. I mean, AK/AQ (we have blocker) would probably 3bet pre. Not sure though, since he's oop, our position and the fact that he doesn't cover us (so no bounty to win).
2) maximum FE and pressure with your stack for his tournament life

Don't know if villain is good enough to fold this though.

Originally posted by pleasecallit

Originally posted by SDK1987
I made your picture visible for you.
*Thank you. idk why i cant copy paste like i done in past.

I would normal just fold QTo from early position, because it’s a hand that doesn’t play well out of position and I don’t think the table is tight enough that you get them all to fold often in spots like this.
* i fold it like <90% for sure. but as chip leader on table its fine can put lot of pressure on opponents with rangeadvantage and that deep.

I expect he can have some better hands like KQo and QJo in his range as well.
*yeah could, but rather unlikly in my view, its just bad to reraise flop in my view.

I don’t think it’s too profitable to raise the turn. Then you isolate yourself against better.
*true. its rather a break even move.

but u agree on the bluff shove?
Thank you
pleasecallit

I don’t think I would bluff this, because I don’t think there are too many better hands that would fold on a shove/raise and he seems tight as well and we can bluff catch his busted draws as well.

Thanks guys. For your input. Helped me a lot.

The thing is we have to have some bluffs on this river...so i think this hand is best candidate for.

Cheers. And GL on the grinds.