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AQ33ds - bottom set.

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Tim64
Joined: 03.11.2008

Poker Stars, $0.50/$1 Pot Limit Omaha Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

SB: $59.15 (59.2 bb)
BB: $165.87 (165.9 bb)
UTG: $103.22 (103.2 bb)
MP: $100 (100 bb)
CO: $118.35 (118.4 bb)
Hero (BTN): $316.73 (316.7 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BTN with A♠: 3♦: 3♠: Q♦:
UTG raises to $3.50, MP calls $3.50, CO folds, Hero calls $3.50, SB calls $3, BB folds

Flop: ($15) 3♣: 6♣: 4♥: (4 players)
SB checks, UTG checks, MP bets $14.25, 3 folds

UTG is a loose aggressive player. MP seemed to be recreational, but playing a few tables
MP: 47/44, Ag 3.0

Weird spot. I expect MP's pot betting range into 3 people to be strong draws (nfd? only), sets and straights or combo draws. Ended up folding b/c
1. Felt that we're actually not doing that great with bottom set vs that range (with 66** I'm happier flipping); AND
2. There's some risk that SB or UTG could still x/r if we flat

Thoughts? Too nitty?
Thanks


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SDK1987
Joined: 12.11.2008

I would play this hand the same as PLO fish. We don’t have much outs if we are behind and he can easy have a straight or better set with flush outs as well.

Cheers,
SDK1987


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Shevtshenko
Joined: 06.12.2009

How does 47/44 show up with 66/44 here? Or 75? If he's decent, there's a low probability of him having nutted hands in his range. If he's below decent, there's way higher likelihood of him having JJ84r or QT64s to take this line...


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Tim64
Joined: 03.11.2008

"MP seemed to be recreational, but playing a few tables
MP: 47/44, Ag 3.0"

MP is a recreational player playing too many hands. I'd say there's a very decent probability of him having both sets and straights here.


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Coach
Kyyberi
Joined: 09.07.2010

4way, I don't think even the bad players pot there with JJ84/QT64. At least I haven't probably ~ever seen that happening, unless the potter is a complete maniac (100/100/100 stats).


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Shevtshenko
Joined: 06.12.2009

Originally posted by Tim64
"MP seemed to be recreational, but playing a few tables
MP: 47/44, Ag 3.0"

MP is a recreational player playing too many hands. I'd say there's a very decent probability of him having both sets and straights here.

I think I assumed based on the "he's playing a few tables" that he's likely not a whale but rather a decent but maybe too loose player. He's not flatting much, so i wouldn't assume he has many low wraps/pairs in his range. I think a hand like AA is much more likely. Player with such a small vpip/pfr -gap shouldn't really have much of a flatting range against outside of the BB.

That said, maybe his 3b is actually close to zero, which changes my whole analysis :f_ugly:


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