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Fold against River raise

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ElWooky
Joined: 19.02.2008

PokerStars Zoom Hold'em No Limit ($0.05/$0.10) Table 'Aludra' 6-max Seat #1 is the button
BTN: ($41.65 )
SB: ($10)
BB: ($14.28)
UTG: ($10.15)
MP: eclibrise ($10.17)
CO: ($10 in chips)

HOLE CARDS
Hero [9h 9d]
Hero: $0.20 to $0.30
MP: folds
CO: folds
BTN: folds
SB: calls $0.25
BB: folds
FLOP [9c Qs 4d] Pot: $0.70
SB: checks
Hero: $0.40
SB: $0.40
TURN [9c Qs 4d] [2d] Pot $1.5$
SB: checks
Hero: bets $1.10
SB: calls $1.10
RIVER [9c Qs 4d 2d] [8h] Pot $3.7$
SB: checks
Hero: bets $1.70
SB: raises $6.50 to $8.20 and is all-in
Hero: folds

The Preflop open with 3 BB is quite Standard.

With second nuts on the Flop and just one potential draw out there (JT) I just bet 57% Pot.

Villian in SB is playing 22/16 Aggression 1.4 on a low sample size of 130 hds and even with this small sample size I had to assume he is a Reg.

Turn is a blank and I bet about 75% to get value from the only draw and top pairs or smaller sets.

On the R the only draw comes in but with 3rd nuts I don't want to check it down because I still expect value from AQ.

I bet small for that reason and Villian shuffs. I don't expect him to do this with AQ. I think he would have rasied sets 4 and 2 on teh turn already.

The only Hands I have left in his range are JT and 88, but 88 would have most likely already folded on the T.

I decided to fold here becasue I did not feel I have the 32% needed for a call.

I would apreciate your thoughts on the River fold? Any thoughts about bet sizing on all the streets?


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3 replies
Moderator
SDK1987
Joined: 12.11.2008

I have moved your hand to our hand discussion board, because it’s fits better there.
In game I don’t think I can find a fold with middle set and the only logic hand we lose against is JT and a decent player isn’t calling 2 barrels with a draw like this.

Cheers,
SDK1987


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la55i
Joined: 27.01.2013

I wouldn't fold either...
You are beat vs JTs. That is 4 combos and I'm not even sure if he will chase his OESD OTT. If he does have all JTs here, he needs only 2 bluff combos and we can call this profitably.


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ElWooky Topic starter
ElWooky
Joined: 19.02.2008

I just see very rare bluff river raises on NL 10 from average players, but my River bet was maybe to small and helped to induce a bluff rasie. Thx for your comments.


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