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K2s, Tough spot on the river vs NIT

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AnXfile378
Joined: 20.07.2017

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD Poker HUD & Database

NL Holdem $0.1(BB)
BB ($4.15)
HJ ($10)
HERO ($10.15)
BTN ($10)
SB ($16.42)

Dealt to Hero 2♠ K♠

HJ Folds, HERO Raises To $0.25 (Rem. Stack: 9.90), BTN Calls $0.25 (Rem. Stack: 9.75), SB Folds, BB Folds

So this hand I am playing in the CO with some fold happy opponents in front of me, so K2s is a fine open for me here. I end up in a hand with the button who is a 15/9 NIT over 672 hands.

Flop ($0.65) 4♠ K♣ 4♥
HERO Bets $0.41 (Rem. Stack: 9.49), BTN Calls $0.41 (Rem. Stack: 9.34)

Ok loving this flop obviously. To me this is a clear cbet spot, where I can start getting value, and if my opp folds this is fine too since my hand is vulnerable to a better King. I still have a backdoor flush draw, full house potential. His fold to Cbet is 55%, so nothing really to get from that except he is honest. Anyway obvious cbet spot for me, and I do a 2/3 pot bet.

Turn ($1.47) 4♠ K♣ 4♥ T♥
HERO Checks, BTN Bets $0.93 (Rem. Stack: 8.41), HERO Calls $0.93 (Rem. Stack: 8.56)

So T♥ comes out, and this doesnt really change much for me. Now im thinking though what would he have called me with here. Well he is a NIT so his cold calling range is going to be real limited. I can rule out prob TT-AA here, because I think he would 3 bet these pre-flop especially being in the Button. TT not 100% he would 3bet of course, but he could with his 5% 3bet stat. So the only other thing im thinking maybe he could have called me with that is calling this flop is A4s. Ok so better King or A4s is what im putting him on. Well being the Nitty player he is after his call on the flop I decide to check. If he bets a reasonable amount I will call because I cant fold my King on the turn unless he gives me unreasonable odds to call. He bets close to 2/3 pot, giving me 27% pot odds to continue. Any other hand I might consider folding this one here, and maybe I should have folded the turn here... But I decide to call. I can call and then we can easily get to a check/check showdown on the river. I still think I could have the best hand here too. That being said the others players image does have me concerned I am behind.

River ($3.33) 4♠ K♣ 4♥ T♥ A♠

Well an Ace.. Worst card to see here, because if you remember one of the hands I put him on was A4s. So this would complete a boat. Now I really think im in big trouble. Prob the best I can hope for here is we get to a check/check showdown and if we do, I feel confident we will chop at the pot. No one loves a chop but in this situation I think a chop is prob the best im going to do here. So what would you do.. Do you A) Bet and hope to get a fold on the scare card, B) Check/Fold, C)Check/Call

Spoiler

HERO Checks, BTN Bets $2.25 (Rem. Stack: 6.16), HERO Folds

BTN wins $5.4


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10 replies
Dr1fter808
Joined: 11.10.2017

I think you played it fine. We don't wanna value town ourselves against a better King, that's for sure.


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Varune
Joined: 24.04.2009

Your flop thoughtprocess is a bit off.
This flop is a clear check to me. why? What are u expecting value from and how many streets? I can't see myself getting 3 streets here so i opt to check here. If you bet K2s here, that means you bet ALL your kings -> there are NO kings left in your checking range. In other words, if i am villain and you check here, i can stab 100% here and you are forced to fold alot of the times.
Furthermore you're saying your hand is 'vulnerable to a higher king', i understand what you are saying. But the phrasing is wrong. When your hand is vulnerable, it means it easily outdrawn. A higher king already has you outdrawn. Being vulnerable is having TPTK on a 89T type board.

As played x/c turn is already dicey since this'll mean you'll be x/calling all your kings, which to me isn't that great of a plan vs a nit.
river you're forced to fold, nits don't bluff(wide) and your calling for a split at best.

PS: opening K2s from CO without specific reads on the players still behind is a bit loose aswell.


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Coach
LemOn36
Joined: 07.02.2009
Coach
LemOn36
Joined: 07.02.2009
Dr1fter808
Joined: 11.10.2017

Well, yeah, the open is loose for sure whatever the circumstance I don't know if it will justify it. The worst Kx from there for me is K9o/K8s, I think... or I hope I don't open any worse.


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Mompacha
Joined: 18.08.2017

Hi AnXfile378! :f_drink:

I think it's probably a better line to c/call OTF, he will flating you with a looot of cards, any A9+, and probably 66+ or 77+. And if he is a bit loose and you Cbet much, he happily could flat you with J9+ (but isn't a comun situation).
Anyways, betting the flop, i probably lead the turn too or just play c/fold cuz you lost the iniciative, are oop and have a really awful kicker.

Hope it helps!

Cheers, Mompacha.


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Panca1605
Joined: 06.09.2017

no waz


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cardinhand
Joined: 16.12.2015

I would C/C. in this situation , I thinks its higher a chance for a chop. i dont think he has Ax,.. probably a pair in hand or Kx which will make it a chop


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Panca1605
Joined: 06.09.2017

I thinks its higher a chance for a chop. i dont think he has Ax,.. probably a pair in hand


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Mozzek
Joined: 16.07.2016

I think best option OTF is x. Personally I would bet it, because I bet nearly always on paired boards (because they´re overfolded), however I really like 1/3 bet, not 2/3. And why x? You have TP no kicker here and you need no protection, so why bet and fold out his air? Only card we´re afraid of is an A. When you bet 2/3 I think he calls with his 55+ and Ax probably. You say if he folds it´s ok since your hand is vulnerable to better K, but if he has a better K he never folds and you are pretty screwed, right? So, you shouldn´t build the pot, you should control it, that´s why you should just x or bet 1/3 only. OTT I believe we still can call, because he should have some FD to bet with there, but since we have all Kxs in our range I think we can folds K2s. OTR, just x/f, there is nothing to do.

Btw, the fact he is 15/9 preflop, doesn´t mean he isn´t aggressive postflop. And I agree K2s is too loose open pre.


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