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OESD with paired board, do implied odds make this an +EV call?

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BossYac
Joined: 29.11.2017
Legacy Member

The response I got on my last post was great, so I hoping for good advice again. Please let me know what you think of my play.

NL10 (+16.13)
~$6.00 effective size, Hero in CO

Hero: Q♠:J♦:

Preflop
UTG limps, LJ raises 0.45, Hero calls, BB, UTG complete

Flop 9♦:9♠:6♠: (1.85)
Checked around

Turn T♦: ($4.61)
BB bets $0.92, UTG calls, Hero?

Spoiler

River K♥:
BB bets $2.30, UTG calls, Hero shoves, everyone calls
Hero wins K-high straight, $16.13


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8 replies
Moderator
SDK1987
Joined: 12.11.2008
Oldschool Grinder

It looks like everyone was playing with around 60bb stack. That’s low for a cash game.

Pre-flop calling in position seems fine to me. The turn pot size looks wrong without any action on the flop and I expect villain is betting half pot. With the odds you get after the call of the BB is decent with only 4 clean outs. There are 2 flush draws possible and is the call close I think, because sometimes you are already drawing dead against a full house.

Cheers,
SDK1987


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la55i
Joined: 27.01.2013
PokerStrategist

You need 19% equity to call. You would have that if all of your outs were clean. Now full houses are possible and half of the cards that complete your straight also complete a possible flush. So you have reverse implied odds. I would just fold.


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lfcmichael
Joined: 30.10.2016
Poker Player

I’m also confused. It seems that there must’ve been a flop bet of $0.92, because the pot is bigger and one player has been lost. Depending on what happened there, I think I would probably have considered folding on the flop.


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la55i
Joined: 27.01.2013
PokerStrategist

I assumed the pot is same than OTF, but if the pot is indeed 4.61$ then it changes things. Then we need only 12%.


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nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010
PokerStrategist

If the effective stacks are around 60BB than this is a clear fold preflop!


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LacsapR
Joined: 14.07.2011
PokerStrategist

Do we really want to call here PRE with QJo with BU, SB, BB behind us that could come up with a squeeze?
Basicly vs an early position open raise we only have a good change to win this pot with a straight as villain has a lot AQ, AJ , KJ, KQ in his range that beat us?


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BossYac Topic starter
BossYac
Joined: 29.11.2017
Legacy Member

Thanks for the replies, I've taken the advice and am playing tighter preflop.


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nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010
PokerStrategist

You do not have to fight for every pot. By tightening your preflop game you will lessen the opportunity to get in an awkward situation postflop. Such situations are complicated and mostly lead to losing money.


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