QQ vs monotone flop

Originally posted by nitrol
With what part of this he will raise flop?

Well that is one of the things that makes this spot difficult. If you ask me what hands a reasonable UTG range will have that can raise on this flop, I would say probably none. If you ask me what this guy could raise, then I believe my guess is as good as yours. We have to add some random hands that at least I would normally fold pre to get some reasonable value and bluff raises to his range.

MP2 41.53% { QdQs }
MP3 58.47% { KK, JJ, AdAs, AhAs, AsAc, TdTs, ThTs, TsTc, 9d9s, 9h9s, 9s9c, 8d8s, 8h8s, 8s8c, KJs, AhKh, AcKc, AsTs, As9s, Ts9s, As8s, 9s8s, AsKd, AsKh, AsQh, AsJd, AsJh }

That could be a starting point but many of the hands are a bit wild imo.
If we make it more reasonable it could look like this:

MP2 25.19% { QdQs }
CO 74.81% { JJ, AsTs, As9s, Ts9s, As8s, AsKd, AsKh, AsQh, AsJd, AsJh }

But that range still has some hands that I wouldn't play this way. The ranges are narrow so a change of even a few combos makes a big difference. Because his range is not so easy to predict, it is difficult to exploit him and base our play on his range. We could play our own range instead, make sure we are not folding too much and being exploitable. Call the best hands and fold the worst. In this case I think QQ could be one of the worst, so no need to call that.
Also we could follow one simple rule I have talked about before and fold when we have difficulties deciding whether to fold or call. Quite often in those cases folding is a bit better option on the long run.

If we could put him on an accurate range this would be easy to solve. But so far it looks like the best we can do is make some wild guesses.

I 3bet 100 % of the time and strongly recommend you do to guys, just like the beginner strategy says

You flop an overcard most of the time invite bb into the pot and a strong hand preflop becomes a mediocre post/3 way hand just because you're afraid of a 4 bet.

Post is funny - Turn's close, usually is when there's so much heated discussion hah I don't think call or fold are much different

But I'd always check or cbet smaller in the first place

Hello guys.
I would 3bet preflop as well.
OTF I would check/call and avoid this tough spot ♦ . I have a rule, I dont cbet OOP unless I have a value bet and since this hand isnt clearly a value bet I think its easy check/call for me.
As played I would also fold OTT since I have better hands to call there I guess, but I would never be in this spot since Im not cbeting here like ever so I dont have it figured out, but I think that I would rather call here some sets than this (what are u drawing to? Flush that is gonna be dominated by his nut flush? I would rather have a set that can improve, than this QQ).
Anyway guys you are analysing the turn so much and forgetting that if you dont cbet the flop in the first place, you wont ever be in this spot and so you dont have to put so much time into analysing it.
But maybe my check/calling OTF is wrong who knows..
Good luck to you all and have a nice rest of the day.

Let me put my 2c in pot. I think your biggest mistake was betting size on flop I would bet 0.3-035 or 1-1.1because if he is agro he will be more inclined to bluff in this spot with smaller bet but with bigger bet you know I he calls your big bet you know he is ahead.

Yeah I thought quite a bit about this one
He must be very bad to raise nutflushes on the flop with such a strong lock on the board and blocking all the As X combos we continue with and we block Qx flushes that do want to raise here.

Also yeah we're not drawing to the nuts but if a spade comes he should shut down with sets (obviously) random smaller spades and every bluff in general that missed because it looks like we have so many spade hands when we start calling like this.
So if a spade falls he should check loads of the time and we can easily fold to a jam because he will have exactly As there.

And we do both beat all bluffs, and have equity vs sets and crush random spazzes

I also agree with the rest of la55i's analysis and this is still nl5, you do want to be tighter vs aggression and this is Sb vs early position so ranges are tight to begin with, we made it too small pre but he still shouldn't have hands like Asjx offsuit and fold pre.
Edit: also he didn't leave much behind, I'm in the tram on my phone so didn't check just how little

I kinda miss superheated debates of the past I must say, in 95% of cases it was a low impact close spot like this turn where you can just click buttons with minimal impact on Winrate yet there would be endless pages on various forums of people arguing to the death, same people that then leaked 5bb/100 by e.g. playing super common bb spots badly over Andover again ;p

Originally posted by nitrol
I will not read this pamphlet until you put some effort and do analyse this spot thoroughly.
I want some expertise on this, not a small novel on how you feel.

The question is: do we fold on turn after we called the flop raise?
With what range villain will raise us on flop? How do we value our hand? How can we improve?
Do we need to call the flop raise?
I see you are a coach now and I really expect every post from you to be an expert one.

Hah I have a story w34z3l told in the podcast we did together (you can still check it in videos)
We were having a discussion and suddenly he pulled up the story about this guy back in the paid evaluation hand times, who'd rarely put in heavy analysis himself, but would always ask the coach to break down the entire ranges and game trees, basically solve the entire hand for him. Pretty soon the paid hand judges started avoiding that person's threads as he was such a nuisance, even though unlike now they were paid for it

And that annoying person was.. . you guessed it. .. young me before my podcast and coaching days

Originally posted by LemOn36
Hah I have a story w34z3l told in the podcast we did together (you can still check it in videos)
We were having a discussion and suddenly he pulled up the story about this guy back in the paid evaluation hand times, who'd rarely put in heavy analysis himself, but would always ask the coach to break down the entire ranges and game trees, basically solve the entire hand for him. Pretty soon the paid hand judges started avoiding that person's threads as he was such a nuisance, even though unlike now they were paid for it

And that annoying person was.. . you guessed it. .. young me before my podcast and coaching days

And that's why they gave you to become a coach, just to stop bother their real coaches!

Thanks all to reply and share your thoughts.

It was interesting and instructing to read all of the post here.

Perhaps i’m completely wrong, but after the flop raise, there is a pot of 3,15$, we have a stack of 4$ and 11 Outs (9 for 2nd nut flush, 2 for set). Would it be wrong to consider a push?

Yes I think that would be wrong. If you push there you will just make sure villain folds all of his possible bluffs and he continues only with already made flushes and some sets. Then you have to also consider that some of villains sets, flushes or flush draws might be higher than ours. So you can't count all of the outs every time.