wonderful and exciting tale of ben002 vs the dark forces of VILLAIN

1st entry (2. April 2018, year of the dog; early morning)

First step: Designing a battle plan

This time I want to attack VILLAIN-land at it's heart, that means: playing NLHE
During the first part of the confrontation I ought to follow some strict principles, which might enable me to overwhelm major opposition when time is ripe.

1st Principle:

Thou shall play 6max from the beginning, no FR anymore!
Play rather loose then tight.

What could be detrimental to my bankroll at first might help me to play more hands, see more flops, and thus progress faster. For the above reasons, playing might also be more exciting. Furthermore a smaller number of VILLAIN's forces will enable me to study their habits more thoroughly and look out for potential weaknesses in their defense.

2nd Principle:

Thou shall not desire riches!

I had hobbies more expensive then 20$ a month. It doesn't matter if I lose my first deposit, nor if I lose my second one or my third. I should calculate 20$ for fighting VILLAIN a month. If I don't lose them, it will be considered a victory.

3rd Principle:

Thou shall only play one table at a time!

When battling VILLAIN I ought to think about every move. I ought to refrain from defaulting to automatisms and instead fight every moment in a state of utmost concentration.
This might decelerate my growth of bankroll in the beginning, but should accelerate my growth of skill. I figured, that as long as I don't play with stakes high enough to let me cash out money at times, the sole function of my bankroll is that it defines at which stakes I am safe to play.
For surviving the higher stakes however personal skill is more important then bankroll. Once the skill develops, the bankroll might follow by its own.

4th Principle

Thou shall not waste brainpower while not in hands!

While sitting at a table, one can refine ones skills to battle VILLAIN in every second. That even holds, when not personally involved in any kind of confrontation.
Whenever somebody bets, do the following:

- calculate bet-size relative to the pot
- infer pot-odds for the person to call
- infer with which frequency the betting player should bluff if he wanted to play a GTO style and if the spot would be a river situation
- Infer numbers for auto-profit and MDF

Once these things became automatic, seek for more challanges of this kind! (calculating SPR and pot-growth, assuming certain bet-sizes on each street, could be a nice task)

Also try to make assumptions about the other combattants ranges. Practice your hand-reading skills while not being involved personally!

5th Principle:

Thou shall study theory off the table regularly!

VILLAIN is a shifty crook. One needs to stay intellectually ahead of him to stand a chance in the long term.

6th Principle:

Thou shall memorize ranges and learn to count and discount combos rapidly!
Use pen, paper and head instead of Flopzilla!
Use the robot mostly to verify results!

One of the most important skills for a hero battling the forces of VILLAIN, seems to be proficiency in the art of mentally handling ranges. It seems to be the prerequisite for being able to apply a lot of the advanced strategies and will help big parts with hand reading.

7th Principle:

Thou shall regularly analyze hands, find thy weaknesses and fix them!

The way of fighting VILLAIN is a way of constant personal growth. VILLAIN can only be defeated, if one is ready to overcome one's pride and vanity and examine oneself without prejudice. Discipline and the abscence of false pride is what will conquer the dark realms of VILLAIN.

8th principle:
(the most important one)

Thou shall stay flexible and be kind to thyself!

When I sometimes don't manage to uphold some of the above principles due to exhaustion or temporary lack of discipline I shall not reproach myself. I should rather focus on a positive mindset, which will enable me to gather the strength to get back to the hero's path.
Most importantly I shall remember, that any of the above principles may be modified or removed, as well as new principles might be added. The most valuable lessons only time can teach and one shall keep ones mind open to receive these lessons and adapt accordingly.

2nd entry (2. April 2018, year of the dog; early afternoon)

One month of bloodshed
(first battle-report)

The first skirmishes with the dark forces of VILLAIN went quite to our heros satisfaction.

I. Preflop Ranges

Most of the time I was playing by the Pre-Flop charts of Master w34z3l ( https://forums.pokerstrategy.com/forum/thread.php?threadid=309916), which I copied into my Combonator trial and then screenshotted into a pdf with different colors for suggested calling and 3betting ranges.
While I first was reluctant to use another persons ranges I later figured out, that it only was bothering me as long as I had no idea about the thought-process involved for creating these ranges. As soon as I managed to gather some basic understanding of why these charts are designed how they are, I figured, that some master's ranges might be actually much better then everything I could come up with at the moment. In some months probably, when I also have e better understanding of which hands I can play profitably I might start defining my own preflop ranges.

II. Studying & off-table practice

The first weeks were marked by intensive studying and some good amount of practice, when it came to remembering ranges and calculating combos. As soon as I became less scared of the actual game and started winning a bit, I unfortunately lost some of these good habits. Also my hand reviews became much more shallow, when I practice them at all.
After having read half of "Harrington on Cash Games" I decided, that it is not really my kind of book, which is why I started reading Matthew Janda's "Applications of No-Limit Hold 'em", which I like much better so far. Although I feel, that I will still need quite a while, before I can start actually implementing some of the ideas into my game. Haven't been reading a lot these days anyway.
I defenitely should improve this aspect of the hero's path. Performing hand reviews and off-table practice is crucial!

III. Playstyle & Results

During the first days I found my heart filled with enthusiasm and zeal. This lead to some kind of maniacish playstyle. I oftentimes managed to bully opposition out of the pot, much more often then that my abundantly used bluffs got called and I lost a lot of BB. If it wouldn't have been for the many Spin 'n' Go tickets Pokerstars gave me for my first depost, I might have been very close to losing my bankroll.

I soon learned that there are other buttons then those for "bet", "raise" and "all-in", as for example the "call"-button, which permitted me to balance out my maniac style. This is how I finally assumed my
♠_evil:♠_evil:maniac-calling-station-hybrid-form ♠_evil:♠_evil:
From now on I performed a little bit worse in bullying VILLAIN's lackeys out of the pot, but as compensation I managed to do some very heroic last stands against overagrerssive assailants, which sometimes granted close victories and oftentimes a martyr's death.
I think, the real change in terms of death and body-count came with my discovery of the "fold"-button and by the idea, that bluffing might work much better when one actually can credibly represent some value hands with it.

Since this point in my career my NL2 performance started to become much better and I am proudly looking back at some nice 17.36 BB/100 for my first 5,887 hands. My biggest issues still seem to be over-calling and not getting payed for my value-hands. Contrary to a lot of things I have read, the opposition at this level seems to be quite nitty. This only might be my personal perception though, as I am still a calling-station-maniac at heart.

IV. Tasks for the near future

- restart doing hand reviews
- restart combo-counting practice
- restart studying
- improve my folding skills!

Wow!

Very interesting maniac style of poker! A raising red line and a massive BB/100 stat!

Opposite of me...

Good luck

Nice read man!
Im sure you will put fear in thoose Villains!

I Will follow your journey to glory

Hi ben002 ,
This is a great blog!

and what a graph!

All the best,
VS

3rd entry (3. April 2018, year of the dog; early afternoon)

Hi guys,

thank you very much for all the encouragement!
Just saw your blog RubbyDubby. Congratulations for your very good first NL5 session. May Fortuna keep her watch on you!

Here comes another battle-report:

The struggle continues

The most disturbing of VILLAIN's black arts might be how he manages to twist our minds even from afar and even when we are not directly fighting him. After all these very successful sessions of the last few days, I became really scared to engage in battle again, as I didn't want to spoil what was achieved, especially not the potential illusion of me being a successful player, which already started growing to my head. I once more felt, how pride can be the enemy of all those, who want to confront the evil which is lurking...

Once I dared starting another raid at the periphery of VILLAIN's acreage I felt how his witchcraft already had possessed me: There is a repeating pattern at the beginning of my sessions, in which I first have to lose 1-2 BIs due to overly daring loose play, before my performance can normalize and I start remembering the basics of combat.

In the following, there shall be an example of how VILLAIN once again managed to twist my mind into a state of frenzy:

PokerStars - $0.02 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players

UTG: $3.61 (VPIP: 25.00, PFR: 12.50, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 8)
MP: $2.21 (VPIP: 20.59, PFR: 17.65, 3Bet Preflop: 14.29, Hands: 34)
CO: $1.97 (VPIP: 50.00, PFR: 37.50, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 8)
BTN: $2.53 (VPIP: 12.50, PFR: 12.50, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 8)
Hero (SB): $2.07
BB: $2.10 (VPIP: 30.61, PFR: 22.45, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 49)

Hero posts SB $0.01, BB posts BB $0.02

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.03) Hero has 8♥ T♥

fold, fold, fold, BTN raises to $0.06, Hero raises to $0.18, fold, BTN raises to $0.56, Hero calls $0.38

Flop: ($1.14, 2 players) 2♠ 8♦ 9♣
Hero checks, BTN bets $0.66, Hero calls $0.66

Turn: ($2.46, 2 players) K♣
Hero checks, BTN bets $1.31 and is all-in, Hero calls $0.85 and is all-in

As it is nothing for the faint-hearted, I will spare you the outcome of such mindless action. But be assured, that it wouldn't have happened if it woudn't have been for the dire spell which VILLAIN had put on me!
:f_ugly::f_ugly::f_ugly::f_ugly::f_ugly::f_ugly::f_ugly::f_ugly::f_ugly::f_ugly:

That much said, I thereafter managed to rid myself from his dark influence and with Fortuna's grace (it indeed was a very lucky session) inflicted a major defeat upon the NL2-vanguards of VILLAIN's main force.

I now need to be twice as careful as before to not succumb again to the dark influence of VILLAIN and above all I should battle to restrain my pride. After all, my recent winning streak could still be due to nothing but variance and even if not: One should never let the results of a game corrupt one's integrity as a character.

I did a little bit of combo-counting practice yesterday and am planning to put in another session today. I also might aim to finish the preflop-chapter of Matthew Janda's book. There are still two more weeks in which I don't have much to do besides poker. So I am planning to use them for it. I am also planning to do from now on one in-depth hand analysis per day. I hope that I can motivate myself to do so.

I wish all the best to everybody!

Come on guys!! Thumb up this thread!

:f_thumbsup::f_thumbsup::f_thumbsup::f_thumbsup:

entertaining thread glgl

4th entry (4. April 2018, year of the dog; afternoon)

Hello again,

and thank you very much for the ongoing support!

As times became more dire for our hero and he found himself confronted with the demons of blunder, who aim to sabotage his conquests, every bit of succour will be of help!

Falling Tides
(contains EXCLUSIVE bonus-guide)

I. Results & Consequences

Still filled with the zeal of recent success, I yesterday dared two consecutive thrusts against the enemy, of which the first one can be considered a major success while the second one wasn't.

One could try to justify this defeat with the reinforcement of the enemie's lines after the onslaught of the last few days or the withdrawal of godly grace. After all one could laugh it away and wait for better times, as it only seems to be a minor defeat in face of the recent glory. In the end variance is just a fact of life. Isn't it?

The truth however is, that neither the opposition nor my luck was at a dire state when this happened. It solely has to be accredited to the demons of blunder which still are seducing and possessing me. They befogged my abillity to identify danger, lured me into situations of certain defeat and bereft me of the wisdom to opt for retreat when retreat was due (way to often folding still just doesn't come to my mind).

I consider it to be the good will of the heavens, that they no longer let me get away with all my heresy and instead grant me the opportunity to see my sins more clearly now, the chance to cleansen myself through devotion.
To purge the demons of blunder from my soul and purify myself from sin, I impose the following task upon myself:

Gather all the hands of yesterday's session in which you performed major blunders and post in-depth reviews to this thread!

I shall not revisit the tables before it is done!

II. Adjusting the approach

Since the very beginning of my campaign against VILLAIN I have been doing the following: Whenever one of his minions would join the battle, I would observe him carefully and study all the intel on him which I could gather. I almost exclusively did this under the premise to figure out how I can best pressure him and bully him out of the pot. I never conciously decided, that it would be a good idea to approach battle like this. It just seems to be my default mode to play poker, which enables itself when I don't actively decide to do otherwise. While this definitely helped a bit with my non-showdown-winnings, I on the downside hardly ever get payed off for my value hands. And, as thinking about my own security never has been part of my default mindset so far, I am still doing a lot of very stupid calls, oftentimes leading to huge losses at showdown.

Yesterday there was a key moment in my still young poker-career: One very cunning agent of the VILLAIN-breed skipped one street of value to disguise his real strength (at least it is what I suspect he intended) and thus managed to let me pay for one street more in the end. I don't know, if such play is standard and I don't know if it is advisable, but it insipred me to select a new approach as my default, whenever joining the battle:
The time is ripe to grow interest in another aspect of VILLAINS behavior. Instead of focusing my observations on hints how to make him cringe in fear, I shall devote myself to the opposite: the art of seduction. I shall use this weapon to deprive VILLAIN of even his last riches whenever I feel charged with strength. On the other hand I shall study how VILLAIN acts in moments of his own strength, to prepare myself for instant retreat whenever the signs are clear.

There is another phenomenon I got to observe on myself, which I shall call "morbid-bluff-commitment". It happened several times to me, that I was bluffing one street with the original intend to give up the hand if the bluff wouldn't go through. The problem was, that I only really was prepared to follow through with this plan, if the enemy would either 2bet or donk/float on the next street, so that I could effortlessly fold. As soon as the enemy cunningly decided to play passively after my first bluff-attempt I oftentimes felt, that for the sake of table-image I HAD to go on bluffing, as I couldn't allow this hand to get to showdown. This behavior ultimately lead to several minor and even major setbacks in my struggle against evil. After all it shouldn't really be to my peril, when VILLAIN is aware, that I will bluff at times, as it could very well help me to get value from my value-hands. I think that every table-image might be ok, as long as one stays aware of it and adjusts respectively. Table image could even be a real non-topic at the limits I am playing.

I want to conclude this chapter with a vow:

I solemnly vow, that in the future...

I shall not succumb to morbid-bluff-commitment,
I shall not bet, if VILLAIN won't fold better/call with worse,
I shall fold when I ought to fold!

III. EXCLUSIVE bonus-guide

I just recently learned, that it is considered to be somewhat unusual to have constantly rising non-showdown-winnings. Also a lot of players seem to aim to improve this aspect of their game. I am only a beginner but during my hours of study and struggles in the field I think I already have discovered one of the big secrets of poker. I think that it is time to no longer withhold this ancient wisdom from the eye of the public, but instead condensate it into my first self-written poker-guide:

QUICK and EASY guide to improve your RED-LINE-winnings:

If you never fold, the only way you can lose money is at showdown. So by definition, your red-line can't decrease. On the other hand a lot of your opponents might not have read my guide and thus might fold sometimes. Each time they fold it will be a contribution to your non-showdown-winnings.
This will give you the decisive edge when it comes to increasing your red-line!
It has worked for me and can work for you too!
It really is that simple!

IV. Praying the Rosary

Over the course of the (next few) day(s), I will cleansen myself from sinful intents by adding hand-reviews below.

Originally posted by ben002
III. EXCLUSIVE bonus-guide

QUICK and EASY guide to improve your RED-LINE-winnings:

Spoiler

NEVER fold!

Brilliant!

Anyways... I think you are doing something really well and that reading opponents.

But some opponents are reading you and they adjust. I have a special color for your guys

Originally posted by RubbyDubby
But some opponents are reading you and they adjust. I have a special color for your guys

Don't you dare exploiting me or my kin!
Just make sure to follow my guide to glory if we ever should meet at the tables!

whip-lash #1

PokerStars - $0.02 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players

UTG: $1.70 (VPIP: 22.33, PFR: 5.83, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 104)
MP: $2.20 (VPIP: 20.37, PFR: 16.67, 3Bet Preflop: 5.56, Hands: 54)
CO: $2.38 (VPIP: 22.94, PFR: 17.43, 3Bet Preflop: 5.13, Hands: 115)
BTN: $2.25 (VPIP: 26.67, PFR: 17.78, 3Bet Preflop: 6.25, Hands: 47)
Hero (SB): $3.47
BB: $3.75 (VPIP: 42.22, PFR: 15.56, 3Bet Preflop: 9.09, Hands: 45)

Hero posts SB $0.01, BB posts BB $0.02

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.03) Hero has J♦ A♣

fold, fold, CO raises to $0.05, fold, Hero calls $0.04, BB calls $0.03

Flop: ($0.15, 3 players) 5♥ A♦ Q♠
Hero checks, BB bets $0.02, CO raises to $0.07, Hero calls $0.07, BB calls $0.05

Turn: ($0.36, 3 players) 7♠
Hero checks, BB bets $0.02, CO raises to $0.33, Hero calls $0.33, fold

River: ($1.04, 2 players) 4♣
Hero checks, CO bets $1.93 and is all-in, Hero calls $1.93

I wont talk about the BB here who was cunningly min-betting every street on every hand he was in, which of course was quite deceptive as a game plan. On the other hand we should have a closer look at the CO, who was responisble for the main action anyway. With 115 hands in the database there were already some clear tendencies to behold:



This player seems to be EXTREMELY passive. He hardly EVER bets! Now we are in a three-handed situation and he raises BB's min-bet to something just above 1/3 of pot size. The sizing seems pretty small, which is remarkable and could mean several things. Much more remarkable then this however is, that this VILLAIN bets at all! Going by his stats and the three-handedness of the situation, he should have a very strong range. I give him AA, QQ, 55, AQ+, A5s.

So how should my calling range look like? As I should be pretty certain, that this VILLAIN isn't trying to bluff me, MDF is insignificant. Instead I should look at pot-odds and equity.

My pod-odds for calling at the flop are 24:7 or roughly 23%.
These however are mostly relevant for draws which could improve on the next street, namely KJ, KTs and JTs, as those are the only ones which would have made it into my pre-flop-calling-range. They all have 43:4 or roughly 9% chance to improve on the turn. As I put VILLAIN on a very strong range which should give him incentive to bet on future streets, I think I could be rather generous with implied odds. I still think that it would rather be a fold, given how small VILLAIN already bets and that the appearance of a scare card might stop his action altogether.

For every hand which is unlikely to improve on future streets, I should consider the combined pot-odds for calling all three streets, as it is very likely, that VILLAIN will continue betting, given the strength of his range.
So lets assume, that our VILLAIN will bet 1/3 pot-size on every street and make the scenario favorable enough to say, that BB will stay in the game and for simplicity, that BB wont have us beat whatsoever.
If BB and I call VILLAIN down to showdown, the pot will grow from 31 after the flop to 31*2^2 = 124 on the showdown, while we would have to pay 7 + 31/3 + 62/3 = 38 to get there. So our actual pod-odds should be considered 38/124 = 31%
(For other bet sizings they would just slightly change as long as BB stays in the pot. If BB folds however, this would be very impactful and worse for me)
So I shouldn't call with anything, that has less then 31% equity against his range. That leaves my calling range with (edit: actually not, as AA,QQ and A5 are not in my pre-flop calling-range):

AA - 97.20%
QQ - 82.80%
55 - 71.57%
AQ - 57.91%
A5 - 35.20%

I probably still shouldn't call A5 as it should be considered unlikely, that BB really will stay in the pot till the end. Especially when BB folding goes along with VILLAIN increasing his bet-sizings (actually happened), my pot-odds would worsen significantly. Now lets look at the equity of my actual hand:

J♦ A♣ - 6.99%

and calculate its EV for the flop-call according to the very generous above scenario:

0.0699*124 - 38 = - 29.3324

After appreciating, that in this highly to my favor idealized scenario I already was massively in -EV area with my call on the flop, lets treat us to my heroic call on the river:
On the river my hand has literally 0.00% equity against VILLAIN's entire range. So lets calculate the EV for this call:

0.0000*490 - 193 = - 193 !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

This call did cost me almost a full BI! And putting my opponent on a range here and estimating how poorly my hand performs against it didn't involve any kind of magic or superhuman hand-reading-skills. Given VILLAIN's stats, all should have been pretty obvious from the beginning. And during this session I was checking his stats regularly. I simply didn't think about the implications enough or completely forgot about them when filled with my passion for calling.

thoughts about whip-lash #1

I already feel, how the treatment of this case weakened the influence which the demons of blunder are wielding over my soul. It makes me confident to know, that the next time I will get into a situation like this my today's effort might very well have saved me a whole BI. If only all of the remaining cases to treat turn out as obvious as this one! The more obvious my mistakes, the easier they should be to fix. I deem myself blessed to be still at a level where this is the case!

If there are any thoughts about this hand or my way reviewing it, they are highly appreciated.
I wish only the best to you guys!

About your hand. When you will post it in the hand discussion board you will get much more response than you will do here.

About your hand:

a) I 3 bet in that spot and call with suited stuff etc.
b) How the f... can you call that shit! ♦.

Anyways... I've been listening to you and following your advise! Look at the red line of the session I played today!!

The're so tight at 5NL.. the games I played.. they kept folding and folding.... and if they did not fold I folded ( read this thread about me folding ).

Originally posted by RubbyDubby
How the f... can you call that shit! :D.

Yeah, how can I?

I mean...

...I just wanted to give you a great example of how to follow my guide of course! ♠_cool:

Apparently you did well.
Congratulations to your nice NL5 performance again!
I should check out this folding stuff you are linking.

I might post some other hands over in the other forum. I think this one was really too obvious to put it on there. In which spot would you 3bet? You mean the flop?

My castigation continues:

whip-lash #2

PokerStars - $0.02 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players

BB: $1.82 (VPIP: 21.51, PFR: 6.45, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 94)
UTG: $2.00 (VPIP: 18.18, PFR: 15.91, 3Bet Preflop: 7.14, Hands: 44)
CO: $2.28 (VPIP: 33.33, PFR: 22.22, 3Bet Preflop: 7.69, Hands: 37)
Hero (BTN): $5.39
SB: $2.01 (VPIP: 40.00, PFR: 8.57, 3Bet Preflop: 5.56, Hands: 35)

SB posts SB $0.01, BB posts BB $0.02

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.03) Hero has Q♦ A♦

fold, fold, Hero raises to $0.05, SB raises to $0.16, fold, Hero calls $0.11

Flop: ($0.34, 2 players) K♣ T♣ 8♦
SB bets $0.02, Hero raises to $0.30, SB calls $0.28

Turn: ($0.94, 2 players) J♣
SB bets $0.02, Hero raises to $0.73, SB calls $0.71

River: ($2.40, 2 players) 3♠
SB bets $0.02, Hero raises to $2.38

This hand actually happend a bit earlier then the foregoing and exactly against the infamous min-bet-BB who also participated above. I only have 35 hands on him, but also in this case we can already observe some clear tendencies:

So this guy loves to bet. And at this point I think, that I already had noticed, that he not only loves to bet, but that he especially loves to min-bet and hardly ever does anything else. When it comes to calling/folding, there aren't a lot of stats available, but he at least had proved, that he CAN fold. So as well as his post-flop betting behavior doesn't have any significance, when it comes to putting him on a range, his calling very well should be considered.

When it comes to pre-flop one should notice his high VPIP/PFR stat. So his pre-flop calling range seems to be pretty wide compared to his betting range. On the other hand, he already had 3bet one steal attempt. So he at least seems to have a range for that which despite his low PFR must not nesseceraly be very strong. As the sample size is way to small for any qualified assumptions in this regard, I will work with my default 3betting range for this situation while thinning out some of the bluffs. That leaves us with:

JJ+, AQ+, A8s-A2s, K9s-K6s, QTs-Q8s, J9s-J8s, T9s-T8s, 98s-87s

I still haven‘t worked out my calling range in this spot, which is a shame, but intuitively I will go with:

QQ-99, AJ+, ATs, KQo, KTs+, QJs-T9s, QTs-J9s

Probably I should balance this out by adding some AA and KK combos for protection. I don't think, that I should add too many of the very speculative hands, as VILLAIN's post-flop betting-pattern doesn't give hope for a lot of implied odds. My hand AQs though definitely should be a call.

Now lets look at the flop:

K♣ T♣ 8♦

In terms of equity my range (103 combos) is with 53.62% just slightly ahead of VILLAIN's range (115 combos). My actual hand only is at 42.54% percent though. Although I only have a slight range advantage I think that I can try to take back initiative at the flop and polarize my range. Another option (and probably the much better one) would have been to simply keep this hand in my calling range as a draw. After all VILLAIN was granting me wonderful pot-odds. As a starter it couldn't harm figuring out, how a balanced betting-range would look like.
Assuming, that with my value hands I would bet 2/3 of the pot on every street, a balanced betting range would include 29% bluffs on the river, 53% on the turn and 67% on the flop. So to determine a balanced amount of bluffs, I should first define my value-betting range for the flop which is:

TT (3 combos)
AK (12)
KTs (3)
KQ half of the time (4.5)
KJs half of the time (1.5)

That totals to 24 value combos and respectively 49 bluffs. So I could bluff here almost half of my total range and call/fold with only about one forth.

As my hand ( Q♦ A♦ ) has a gutshot draw together with a backdoor nut-flush-draw and an overcard as well as some blocker-effects for AA, AK and QQ, which might all be in VILLAIN's continuing range, it seems to make an excellent bluff for the first street. Now let's define VILLAINS continuing-range and calculate fold equity. After blocker-effects his range consists of still 91 combos.

which makes a total of 57 or 63% of his range, which gives me fold-equity of

0.37*36 = 13.32

Interisting enough VILLAIN seemed to 3bet in usually reasonable big sizes, despite his normal min-betting practice. So I would fold against a 3bet, which should occur 10% of the time with 9 combos. Against his calling range, which consists of 53% of his range with 48 combos I have about 35% equity. So the EV of my raise sums up to:

13.32 + 0.10*0 + 0.53*0.35*94 - 30 = 0.76

The bluff raise here indeed still has slightly positive EV. As an EV of less then 1 SB isn‘t really overwhelming, I should compare this to the EV of calling instead:

With his min-bet my opponent offers me pot-odds of 17:1 or 5.56%. If we assume the very likely case, that he also will min-bet the remaining streets, such that I would have to continue calling him down till showdown, this changes to 19:3 or 14%. With 42.54% equity against his range, the call should still be well +EV. Precisely:

0.4254*46 - 6 = 13.57

If we compare this number to the EV of the bluff-raise, we figure a difference of 12.81 !

My agressive play in this spot did cost me almost 6.5 BB!!!!!!!!!!

So now as it is established, that my flop decision was already -EV and this case starts to become fatiguing, I will skip the evaluation of my turn decision and move as fast to the river as possible to calculate the EV of my glorious jam.
The turn brings J♣, which completes my straight as well as potential flush-draws. He might have called my turn-bet with:

On the river, 3♠, I am ahead of this range with 52.17% equity. Thanks to his min-bet, calling him would be massive +EV with

0.5217*244 - 2 = 125.29

Instead I chose to jam here. If we assume, that he folds his last combo of QQ as well as half of his remaining AK combos, this would make 13% of his range, while I would get 47.37% equity against the range he is calling with. As the effective stack-size was only 80 at this spot, this sums up to an EV of:

0.13*322 + 0.78*0.4737*402 - 80 = 110.39

So jamming instead of calling yielded me an EV loss of

110.39 – 125.29 = - 14.90 = - 7.5 BB

I don‘t know exactly how it is calculated, but I guess that the jam also contributed several more BB of rake compared to the call, which would have made it even worse.

I am still uncertain about the theory here. I might be confusing some things. I wonder how my betting range on the flop really should have looked like. My actual hand already seemed to be one of the better bluffs and it still most likely wasn't the right decision to bet with it.
If some knowing person could explain to me, how the theory of a balanced betting range could have been applied in this spot or how my betting range ideally could have looked like, it would indeed be to my utmost joy!

thoughts on whip-lash #2

This stuff is exhausting! Maybe I am also a bit too acribic with these reviews. But one shouldn‘t anger the heavens and I still feel the sinister grasp of the demons of blunder tightening around my soul. This hand actually wasn‘t as bad as I initially thought. The less agressive action would have been of course much better then what I actually did, but in the end it wasn‘t as blundersome as a lot of my other performances. According to my initial plan, there are still four more whip-lashes to go before I can revisit the tables. I might send a prayer to the gods tonight, bidding for forgiveness and for the allowance to return to the tables earlier, as my repentantness should be already out of question now. I am confident that the heavens will show grace with the poor sinner who I am.

Critique and further hints are welcome as always!
(If anybody at all can be bothered to read all this shit)
May the heavens keep their benevolent eye on you guys!

Originally posted by ben002
In which spot would you 3bet? You mean the flop?

No I mean preflop. 3 bet and isolate your opponent.

But you should really put your hands in the discussion board.

About this hand above. I might have played it the same as you but probably not jammed the river.
Make a small value bet there at the river. Then if he jams you can probably fold.

Last hand I review here my friend But I'll keep reading and answering non hand related questions.

PS
May I asked which country you're from?

5th enty (7. April 2018, year of the dog, before sunset)

After all I think, that I should have played the last hand Call/Bet/Call but you are actually right about the hand-discussion forum. I should post future hands rather over there.
Just needed to fulfill my sworn duty in this thread.
I am German btw.
How about you and how are your NL5 conquests going?
Interesting challange you had going there. I guess that might help a lot to overcome potential psychological barriers which may keep me from folding. I think, that I still struggle enough with knowing when I actually should fold though. So for my case I will first continue trying to evaluate each situation by it's own before I decide if such drastic measures will be nessecary.

Return to the battlegrounds

My prayers have been heard!
The gods allowed me to delay further castigation and return to fight VILLAIN before the final whip-lash is performed. I am overly filled with joy that I once again have the chance to face the evil directly which keeps plaguing these lands.
This time I often sent prayers to the heavens and focused on remembering my vow, triying to fold when folding was due. As much as I still could feel the maleficent influence of the demons of blunder, I also felt how my practice in devotion had strengthend me and helped me to withstand some of their sweetest - and oh, so malicious - callings.

average:

Despite these latest conquests I shall keep my practice in devotion and not be fooled by success again. We all know, that fortune in battle may shift quickly. Who is favored by the gods may turn into their outcast the next day.

May they favor all of you!

I'm the neighbors, I'm dutch.
You have seen already my insane run at 5NL (partly the Gods, partly me I guess)

Your latest session is also insanely good!

Keep on playing like that!

6th entry (8. April 2018, year of the dog, early afternoon)

Originally posted by RubbyDubby
I'm the neighbors, I'm dutch.

Test of Faith
(weekly report)

The gods have put my faith to a test. After one week of unfettered succes, the enemy has lured me into ambush and injured me heavily... I just barely got away with my life...

Spoiler

Spoiler

:f_o::f_o::f_o:

Spoiler

:f_o::f_o::f_o::f_o::f_o::f_o::f_o::f_o::f_o::f_o::f_o::f_o:

Spoiler

It is now imperative for me not to lose faith in the heavens. I have been assaulting VILLAIN with the best of my capabilities and always felt the forces of rigtheousness protecting me. It is only just, that those above now long to see if also in times of dismay I will not turn my back on them.

So... what else, young braver?

Have been continuing browsing through Janda's book and still find it quite interesting. My intensive hand-reviewing during the middle of the week was a big help. Yesterday's defeat will be used as an incentive to perform my first thorough session review. I don't think, that I was on tilt. Only a pinch of bad luck, a bucket of bad play and some major stupid decisions. It's good to have something to work with now. So let's tackle it from the bright side! Shall we?
I guess I should have retreated earlier. Were quite the morning hours which already had put weight on my eyelids. Maybe that's already half of the deal. Still: Never underestimate your capabillity for stupid decision-making young hero! Tiredness only sabotages you this far! (:f_cool: that's NOT the review yet :f_cool:)

Also should retake my combo-counting drills.

May Fortuna's grace rest upon you friends!
:f_thumbsup::f_drink::f_thumbsup:

Originally posted by ben002

Spoiler

Spoiler

:f_o::f_o::f_o:

Spoiler

:f_o::f_o::f_o::f_o::f_o::f_o::f_o::f_o::f_o::f_o::f_o::f_o:

Spoiler

Brilliant! (not the results :()

Post those hands man! That is so easy.

Then we can laugh or cry about them and then you'll get for free our thoughts (not only mine).

I am actually pretty proud about my dramaturgical use of spoilers in this case !!!!
I am glad it got recognized!

I've been through all the critical hands of this session and my sole conclusion is, that I really shouldn't play sessions of 3h+ anymore and that I shouldn't play so late at night. Most of this stuff was really avoidable. I will follow your advice and post some of the hands, which are less obvious to me.