Since I'm refreshing my tan from April the 8th until April the 19th 
there won't be coaching during that time. Next coaching will be on April the 22nd.
see u then
xarry
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Originally posted by xarry2
Preflop: Hero is BU with A♦, K♦
6 folds, Hero raises to $30,00, 1 fold, BB raises to $200,00, Hero calls (All-In)For us the hand isn't pretty difficult to play. However the hand which BB showed to me inspired me for this post. He had K8o and I wondered wether his play is +EV. So let's assume we're in the BB and face a BU steal. Is such a push profitable for us???
This just fits like a glove, because I just reviewed my yesterdays session (met you at the table there very briefly 
) and I had the following hand:
We are in MP3.
CO,BU,BB are all SSS-players.
SB plays 23/12 with a 83 fold-to-cbet so far (2.6k hands).
Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $2(BB) Replayer
SB ($73)
BB ($63)
UTG ($29)
UTG+1 ($38)
UTG+2 ($37)
MP1 ($49)
Hero ($42)
CO ($57.15)
BTN ($34)
Dealt to Hero Q♦Q♣
fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to $7, fold, BTN raises to $21, fold, fold, Hero raises to $35, BTN calls $13,
FLOP ($71) J♠7♣2♥
TURN ($71) J♠7♣2♥Q♠
RIVER ($71) J♠7♣2♥Q♠3♣
Now for the analysis, which i didnt do with your new chart, but certainly someone can.
My own thoughts: BU looks at my stats, sees 8% openraise from MP, so he probably 3bets JJ+,AK, maybe TT. In any case I decide to push with JJ+,AK.
Sometimes I might give him AQ because he plays a rather aggressive style with 14/13 so I might push with TT also.
As for the showdown:
Hero shows Q♦Q♣
(Flop 85.7%, Turn 100.0%)
BTN shows 9♣A♥
(Flop 14.3%, Turn 0.0%)
Hero wins $68
I wrote "A9o??" in the chat, but noone answered, so I had to re-evaluate the hand myself
BU sees my raise and wonders: What would he (that being me ) call me with? For the sake of argument lets say he hits the needle: JJ+,AK.
What openraising range must he give me to make a push w A9o correct?
My calculations lead to about 8.8%.
This isnt such a bad guess, after all players behind me are pretty tight and I might openraise w 77+,AJ+,KQ which are 8.4%
Knowing this he could correctly push me with lots of hands, even with 53s and A5o (but not A9o).
Now lets say I also call with TT.
Even then, with my loosened openraising he could push correctly with 55+,AK,AQs,AJs,A5s,KQs,QJs.
If I get the idea that he knows he has very much foldequity in this spot, and thus is capable of raising such a range of hands, I might call with AQs for example which in turn makes his push correct only with the very same range:
TT+,AK,AQs.
In turn, if I know that he knows that I know that he knows that....wait...what did I want to say?
Well certainly, I cant push with neither TT nor AQs if he is at this level of thinking that he only push me with TT+,AQs.
In conlusion: In the spot I came in the hand above, it is a game of guessing for me at which level of thinking he currently operates.
If he is either a straight forward player or a player which knows that I refuse him the foldequity to make a play here, I should push JJ+,AK.
If he likes to make a play here I should also push TT, if he likes to make a play here very much I should definetly also push AQs for denying him the foldequity.
Well, please consider this rather long post a guest commentary and have a nice and relaxing vacation, xarry. 
Hi Xarry, i'm from community spanish xD, so sorry for my english is not my native language. I have a couple of questions. Actually i play SSS NL200 in full tilt :
1.- Until now , always i rebuy with 20bb, do you think is better not rebuy ? leave stack to 10bb .
2.- I've watching some shorstack (NL400+ ) that their preflop raise size is 2bb instead 4bb, do you think miniraise is better ?, posftlop game is more complicated with miniraise i think.
Thanks very much.
@pikota:
in general you can say that both adaptations (blinding down and smaller openraisesize) are only needed if you play against tight/thinking players. only by doing so you will get a payout from them, too. if there are still many loose/bad players on your limit I don't think its neccessary to do this.
always think of how to maximize your winnings - if you get the payout with 20BB then there's no reason to blind down. the same is for small openraises. if you constantly get called with 4BB anyway then raising to 2BB wouldn't be smart. you will just give away money.
I play with 3BB openraises and I blind down to 12BB before rebuying. I do so because this works on my limit. but! that doesn't mean its working on others, too. so you should always think whats better for you. never just copy other players style.
well, If you scroll back in this thread and take a look at the posts you will often find posts where I talk about rebuying or openraising size. anyway I can recommend my thread take a look at it. its giving you like 90% of all answers an advancing SSS players searchs for
regards,
xarry
@gonzo:
nice post! you're absolutely right. if there is no history between you and the other SSS player he can throw in such a reraise with a profitable EV. you can use the two calculators which I included in my new chart collection.
I will shortly use the FE calculator (with the point of view of BU):
pot:
7$+3$= 10$
effective stack:
34$
Equity:
well, if you just call with AK/JJ+ he has 25.2% equity with A9o.
Deadmoney:
in this cas 0 since I assume the blinds will be eaten up by the rake.
Blinds: = 0 since we're not in the blinds
The result for the breakeven FE is 62.78%. you should therefore openraise at least 8.06% (3%/8.06% = 37.22%)
Lets test since i'm still not 100% sure my calculator works perfect
EV = Pot*Foldequity + (1-Foldequity)[(eff.Stack+Deadmoney)*Equity – ((eff.Stack-Blind)*(1-Equity))]
EV = 10*0.6278 + 0.3722[34*0.252 - 34*0.748] = ~0
=> so it seems to be working
Well, imo A9o is however a very bad hand for this move. imo BTN was tilting a bit in this moment. if he makes this play with like 22+, A2s+ and all sorts of suired connectors his equity in case he gets called is much better. with 30% equity in case he gets called he just needs 57.63% FE.
what I like for this move however is that its not a blind battle/steal-resteal. thus the credit he gets by you is much higher. on the other hand there are players left which can still have monsters.
regards,
xarry
Adv SSS Coaching - 04/22
Known players: (for a description of vp$ip, pfr, ats, folded bb, af, wts, wsd or hands click here)
[tg]Position_Stack:hands/vp$ip/pfr/af/wts/ats/foldbb/w$sd;Hero$67,00:///////;BB$228,40:///////;[/tg]
2,00/4,00 No-Limit Hold'em (6 handed)
Hand recorder used for this poker hand: Texas Grabem 1.9 by www.pokerstrategy.com.
Preflop: Hero is BU with A♠, Q♠
3 folds, Hero raises to $10,00, SB folds, BB calls $6,00.
Flop: ($22,00) J♣, 9♦, T♠ (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks.
Turn: ($22,00) 5♣ (2 players)
BB bets $12,00, Hero calls $12,00.
River: ($46,00) 2♣ (2 players)
BB bets $12,00, Hero folds.
Final Pot: $58,00
BB is a pretty loose opponent. playing like 50/16. fold to cbet 43%, checkraise flop 14%.
well, with such a loose BB its probably better to raise 3BB or even 3.5BB in order to get most money preflop (when we're mostly in front).
The flop looks pretty good for us. Why didn't I make a cbet?
My thoughts were that BB doesn't fold much to bets and checkraises aggressive. This means I won't be able to create much foldequity and in addition he will often test my bet with a checkraise. Since we only have a strong draw but still a big stack left I don't want to see a checkraise.
The pot odds are:
If I bet ~14$ I have 43$ left. if he checkraises me all-in the pot odds I get are: 22$+14$+57$ / 43$ = 2.16:1 which equals 31.6% equity I need to go broke.
I will probably have enough equity to go broke vs a checkraise. Thus it wouldnt be wrong to play bet/call here. Imo the fact that BB is so loose however makes a checkbehind maybe more profitable. He just won't fold very much of his range so I only put money in the pot with a drawing hand but don't really make him fold often. Taking the free turn with many many remaining outs seems to be better for me. I have good implied odds as well if I hit.
I'm still not abolutely sure about it - as you may have noticed So if you don't feel comfortable with the checkbehind then playing bet/call is of course profitable, too. If our remaining stack gets smaller though I would also like bet/call more.
The influencing factors are always the same when it comes to cbet or checkbehind:
pro cbet:
- much foldequity
- small to medium remaining stack (like 1-2.5x pot)
- not many remaining outs (which we would have to give up against a checkraise
pro checkbehind:
- not much foldequity
- big remaining stack
- many remaining outs (and thus implied odds in case we hit)
Originally posted by Gonzo394
I'd like to add a "pro-cbet" point to Hand 1 of your previous post:- The Outs you have are rather scary.
Basically you want to hit an 8, a K, an A or a Q. Either one of these outs is an enourmous scarecard for any single pair w/o a strong draw he can have.
To add another "pro-checkbehind":
- An incoming BDFD on the turn certainly boosts your equity.
I dont know your opponent here, but I would have b/c'd here (not sure if this is the better play, like you are
Known players: (for a description of vp$ip, pfr, ats, folded bb, af, wts, wsd or hands click here)
[tg]Position_Stack:hands/vp$ip/pfr/af/wts/ats/foldbb/w$sd;Hero$68,80:///////;MP3$552,49:///////;[/tg]
2,00/4,00 No-Limit Hold'em (8 handed)
Hand recorder used for this poker hand: Texas Grabem 1.9 by www.pokerstrategy.com.
Preflop: Hero is MP2 with A♣, K♠
2 folds, Hero raises to $12,00, MP3 calls $12,00, 4 folds.
Flop: ($30,00) 2♥, 7♠, 7♣ (2 players)
Hero bets $14,00, MP3 folds.
Final Pot: $44,00
MP3 plays 16/10 and likes to coldcall.
On such a board and against a still TAGgy opponent I like to cbet small. ~1/2potsize is enough. we only need ~33% foldequity fo making profit. its is pretty unlikely that our opponent has hit. the only hands he will mostly continue here are pocket pairs. however by betting so small on the flop we can create a good spot for a second barrel on the turn - in case there's a scarecard. Why?
The pot on the turn if MP3 calls the flop would be 58$ and we have 42.8$ left which is ~74% potsize. with such a remaining stack we can create much foldequity. would we bet like 20$ on the flop the turnpot would be 70$ and we had 36.8$ left. thats only around 1/2pot and this creates much less foldequity. most hands which called the flop before won't give up to a 1/2pot 2nd barrel.
What you should do therefore is trying to plan your betsizes. Its very important to plan a hand before you make the single actions. Thus you'll gain much more control over the game and consequently win more.
I would like to add that I would bet like 32$ on the turn (if its a Q for example). Imo this looks much stronger than a push since we commit us to the pot.. Many players will read this as a sign of strenght and thus we'll get a bit more foldequity probably.
I'd like to add a "pro-cbet" point to Hand 1 of your previous post:
- The Outs you have are rather scary.
Basically you want to hit an 8, a K, an A or a Q. Either one of these outs is an enourmous scarecard for any single pair w/o a strong draw he can have.
To add another "pro-checkbehind":
- An incoming BDFD on the turn certainly boosts your equity.
I dont know your opponent here, but I would have b/c'd here (not sure if this is the better play, like you are ) and as you said I bet at least 3BB preflop against such a loose player.
Adv SSS Coaching - 04/29
For those of you who listened to the coaching:
quite successful 
Besides we had of course interesting hands and discussions!
5/10 No-Limit Hold'em (10 handed)
Hand recorder used for this poker hand: Texas Grabem 1.9 by www.pokerstrategy.com.
Preflop: Hero is BB with J♣, J♦
4 folds, MP2 raises to $30,00, 2 folds, BU calls $30,00, SB raises to $100,00, Hero raises to $242,00 (All-In), MP2 raises to $1000,00, BU folds, SB calls $900,00.
Flop: ($2272,00) 2♣, 3♠, J♥
Turn: ($2272,00) 2♠
River: ($2272,00) K♦
Final Pot: $2272,00
MP2: 17/11, MP OR 14%
BU: 18/12, 3bet% 3%
SB: 16/14, not enough hands however for a reliable 3bet% or squeeze%
MP2 is an aggressive openraiser and BU shows some loose tendencies, is however not passive. This is, even though the initial raise is from MP2, a nice spot for a squeeze. That's why I would give SB not only JJ/AK. I think of other hands like e.g. TT and mabye AQs. More reads would be nice since every single player has its own squeeze tendencies. I for example often like to coldcall TT or AQs here in order to avoid isolating me against better hands in a big pot OOP. But according to my experience most NL 1000 TAGs like to squeeze looser than I do.
How much equity do I have against possible SB ranges?:
- JJ+/AK (which would be tight), 36.6%
- TT+/AK, 43.2%
- TT+, AQs, AK, 44.2%
- TT+, AQ+, 46.9%
Most of the time I'm behind. That's why my push can definetely be seen as risky and maybe too loose. I think it can be folded. However I considered the fact that I play on NL 1000 where players do not only squeeze with value hands. I think it is possible to give SB some semibluff squeezes with hands like low pockets or suited connectors - since he plays against other aggressive TAGs this is imo very realistic. Looking at his small raisesize he can definetely throw in some since he gets a good risk/reward ratio. How much he includes such hands is unsure. I would say in 10%+. If I assume 10% low pockets/suited connectors I have usually more than 50% equity. Considering the deadmoney which is already in the pot this is more than enough for a positive EV. Lets start with an easy calculation and assume that MP2 and BU always fold and SB calls my raise with any2 he raised before and giving me 50% equity against his range.
I will use my EV calculator with the following underlying formula:
EV = Pot*Foldequity + (1-Foldequity)[(eff.Stack+Deadmoney)*Equity – ((eff.Stack-Blind)*(1-Equity))]
However no FE, thus the Pot field is unimportant.
eff. Stack is 242$, its important to take the stack at the start of the betting round since SB has to bring exactly this amount of money if he calls me.
DM is 70$, i can win the initial raise, the coldcall and the BB. The SB does not count since SB is still in the game and the 5$ are counted in the 242$ already. Equity is 0.5 and blind is 10$.
EV = 1*[(242$+70$)*0.5 – ((242$-10$)*0.5)] = 40$
Thats a nice EV (without rake). What would be my breakeven EV?
=> ~ 42.65% remaining equity in case I get called.
So even without the semibluffs I not -EV. However its still a very risky and swingy play.
Finally we can consider that MP2 does not fold. BU will fold in 99% imo. Only if he's really tricky and there's much history between those three he could trap here with a monster maybe.
I assume MP2 only continues with JJ/AK. this is 3% range (of a total of 14% this makes up 21%) and thus we have 79% FE for him. It is not easy to state if MP2 mostly calls my raise only or pushs over the top. Most of the time the latter is more likely. Just because if he calls my raise only he commits himself to the pot, even if SB pushs. And if SB also only calls the pot is so big that he can't get out of it with any of his JJ+/AK. Thus I assume he pushs in 3%. If he pushs SB will then fold his semibluffs and only go broke with top hands. Imo he should be able to fold AQ and TT, too. he didn't invest much money so far and a push from MP2 is really strong here since the pot is already protected through my all-in. If he folds JJ is very hard to say. I assume no for this hand (the difference is not that big since I already have JJ and there's only 1 possible combination left) I will give him JJ+/AK as calling range.
The situation changes though:
- in 79% I play against SB alone
- in 21% I play against SB and MP2 both with JJ+/AK
I then have ~24% equity left. And I will try to take into account that if SB folds (in ~40% when MP2 pushs) we have another 100$ deadmoney in the pot. And only play against 1 time JJ+/AK and have 36.6% equity.
The EV is now the following:
EV = 0.79*[(242$+70$)*0.5 – ((242$-10$)*0.5)] + 0.21*0.4[(242$+140$)*0.366 – ((242$-10$)*0.634)] + 0.21*0.6[(484$+40$)*0.24 – ((242$-10$)*0.76)] = 31.6$ - 0.61$ - 6.37$ = 24.62$
I hope this was correct So even with more realistic assumptions our EV stays pretty great.
After writing this I say that I like my push. But be aware to do this on lower limits or against players who are just not that aggressive. Imo below NL 1000 most players don't squeeze loose enough.
regards,
xarry
Originally posted by xarry2
- in 97% I play against SB alone
- in 3% I play against SB and MP2 both with JJ+/AK
xarry
why in 97% against only SB. MP2 open raise not 100%, but 14%, and 3% (his pushing range) will be in those 14% in 21% of cases???
Hey Xarry,
i have got one question about your ev calculator.
Hand converted with online PokerStrategy.com hand converter:
$1/$2 No-Limit Hold'em (9 handed)
Known players:
[tg]UTG2$205.25:///////;MP1$159.00:///////;MP2$200.00:///////;MP3$200.00:///////;CO$200.00:///////;BU(Hero)$47.00:///////;SB$216.40:///////;BB$283.45:///////;UTG1$224.50:///////;[/tg]
Preflop: Hero is BU with T:h, A:d.
6 folds, Hero raises to $6, SB folds, BB raises to $19, Hero raises to $47(All-In), BB calls $28.00.
Flop: ($95.00) 3:d, K:d, K:s (2 players)
Turn: ($95.00) 5:s (2 players)
River: ($95.00) 9:s (2 players)
Final Pot: $95.00.
I need 43% in this situation. The bu re steals in 18%, which would give me 49,4% equity against his total range. If i put this in your ev calculator and set the fold equity to 0% it is slightly minus ev. Why?
The variables i put in the calculator: pot: 26 effective stack: 47 deadmoney:1 (for the sb blind) equity: 49,4% foldequity: 0% blind/ bet: 0
Shouldnt it be +ev? Where is my mistake?
Do you think we could even give us a little FE in this spot?
Thank you for your help!
I think you should NOT use the EV formule P*FE+EQ*ES+DM*(1-FE) - (1-EQ)*ES
if you intend to let FE be 0% then I think you should then do the normal equity calculation (ES+OriginalRaise+Blinds)/Remaining Stack
I think BB can bluff3bet but with a very low frequency so i either give him like 5% FE or use the normal calculator
thx for the question:
if I want to examine the result I put all the values I chose fot the calculator in the underlying formula and evaluate if its correct:
EV = Pot*Foldequity + (1-Foldequity)[(eff.Stack+Deadmoney)*Equity – ((eff.Stack-Blind)*(1-Equity))]
=> EV = 26$*0 + 1[(47$+1$)*0.494 - 47$*0.506] = -0.07wrong!!!
The result is just not correct because the underlying formula (or let's say the values I defined) doesn't seem to work for this spot. The problem is that the 6$ original raise are not included. also its not included that we can risk 41$ at max.
imo we should therefore take: dm=7$, and blinds/bets: 6$
=> EV = 26$*0 + 1[(47$+7$)*0.494 - (47$-6$)*0.506] = 5.93$
you only have to redefine blind/bet (or take a closer look at its defninition:Amount of money you've invested after the start! of the betting round.
and if you calulate it intuitively without FE you'll get this:
(6$+47$+1$)*0.494 - 41$+0.506 = 5.93$
and thats exactly the same as my formula.
you think I can leave the definitions as listed in the most actual link of my chart?
regards,
xarry
Exactly xarry! Thanks for opening my eyes! My mistake was to take the point of my initial rais as the point of interest for the formula, but its the point of my all in push! Thats why we now have more dead money! I also forgot the blind/bet as well.
I like playing around with this great calculator it realy gives you a good feel for close decisions! Which this situation obviously wasnt!
@Xarry
Do you have to take Rake into consideration on Midstakes (Nl100++)?
Or given this example, does the rake matter thát much for your EV?
@edgetrader:
you're welcome!
btw, I've chosen your hand as another instructionary example for the calculators. if thats okay for you
@gerv:
I would say if you do its best. usually its not such a big problem to do this.
I just discount the rake from the deadmoney in my formula. thus the influence is always Rake*Equity.
in edgetraders hand its therefore 3$*0.494= ~1.48$
thats not unimportant!
EV = 26$*0 + 1[(47$+7$-3$)*0.494 - (47$-6$)*0.506] = ~4.45$
Therefore I would recommend to include it if possible.
btw: I forgot to give my statement aboout FE in this hand. it will be very low but it will be there. as you say gerv, assuming like 5% takes into account possible bluffs (and disconnects or heartattacks ♦)
EV = 26$*0.05 + 0.95[(47$+7$-3$)*0.494 - (47$-6$)*0.506] = ~5.53$
regards,
xarry
Adv SSS Coaching - 05/06
2,00/4,00 No-Limit Hold'em (8 handed)
Hand recorder used for this poker hand: Texas Grabem 1.9 by www.pokerstrategy.com.
Preflop: Hero is BB with 8♥, 8♦
6 folds, SB raises to $80,20 (All-In), Hero calls $76,20.
Flop: ($160,40) 9♦, K♠, J♣
Turn: ($160,40) 9♠
River: ($160,40) T♥
Final Pot: $160,40
SB is a 7/7 shortie.
With this hand I want to compare sklansky pushes with such stacksizes with normal steals.
22+,A2s+,K8s+,QTs+,A2o+,KTo+
Thats the range one can push profitably according to the basic sklansky rankings (see http://www2.decf.berkeley.edu/~chubukov/rankings.html ) with 19BB stack.
Given that I don't know our opponents holding (which has an even more positive EV than sklansky assumes in his rankings) my best play would be to assume playing against exactly this range. i.e. always if you face a sklansky push you should take a look the opponents stacksize and conclude to the respective range then.
In our hand vs. 19BB stack e.g. 22+,A2s+,K8s+,QTs+,A2o+,KTo+. 88 has 58.3% equity against this range. thus a call is profitable. Overall I should call his push considering our estimations and a breakeven equity of 48.28% which I get through the rake discounted pot odds of 81.20$/75.80$, with 44+, A8s+, A9o+. This is a total of 11.3%. In average SB has 40.8% equity against my calling range as well as I have 59.2%.
What is interesting now is the EV of the sklansky push of our opponent. Afterwards I'll also compare it to the EV of a normal raise.
EV = Pot*Foldequity + (1-Foldequity)[(eff.Stack+Deadmoney)*Equity – ((eff.Stack-Blind)*(1-Equity))]
I will take account of rake thus deadmoney is SB with 2$ minus 3$ rake.
=> EV = 6$*0.887 + 0.113[(80.20$+ (-1$))*0.408 – (80.20$-2$)*0.592] = 3.74
and looking at the exact hand SB had in this spot: A5o and me still callingith the same range:
EV = 6$*0.887 + 0.113[(80.20$+(-1$))0.30 – (80.20$-2$)*0.70] = 1.82$
In comparision the EV's of normal 3BB steals:
FE 80% => EV = 0.8*6$ - 0.2*10$ = 2.8$
FE 70% => EV = 0.7*6$ - 0.3*10$ = 1.2$
FE 60% => EV = 0.6*6$ - 0.4*10$ = -0.4$
What we see is that we should never use sklansky if we have a high foldequity. Another important point is that the standardf steal itself maybe only has an EV of 1.2$ if our opponent folds in 70%. but as soon as he does not only reraise us in 30% but starts calling we still have the possibility to make profitable plays postflop - with the big advantage of only risking 3BB for the steal instead of our whole stack. We still have free choices over our next action. What musn't be forgotten however is that If we are not able to play a correct postflop play our EV for potflop could more often be negative than positive.
However imo only a very small percentage of your opponents is able to outplay you totally if you're OOP. Going back to the spot of our sample hand SB is right assuming he won't get my blind all the way But I won't be defending looser than 70% usually. Also this play may be good with A5o or 22. But most of the hands which make up SB's pushing range have a much better playbility and will often get a higher payout - especially If I falsely try to make moves against a tight range. I also doubt SB will push AA or AK here. since often players mostly push the weak hands but raise the strong ones. this gives me a good read and I can readjust if I know this.
Probably SB could therefore have a sklansky pushing range like this:
99-22,ATs-A2s,KJs-K8s,QTs+,ATo-A2o,KJo-KTo
I will then call with 33+, A6s+, A7o+, KJs+ which is 14.8% and have 61.1% equity in case I get called. The EV of the sklansky push changes:
EV = 6$*0.852 + 0.148[(80.20$+(-1$))0.389 – (80.20$-2$)*0.611] = 2.6$
for his overall range and for A5o:
EV = 6$*0.852 + 0.148[(80.20$+(-1$))0.329 – (80.20$-2$)*0.671] = 1.2$
I don't want to ban sklansky pushes out of the SSS. They are a helpful part for our play sometimes. But in most situations you're better off making the normal raise. Espcially if you have a normal sized stack. Besides that the variance of a normal steal is much much smaller. Thus be aware when you use SC.
Known players: (for a description of vp$ip, pfr, ats, folded bb, af, wts, wsd or hands click here)
[tg]Position_Stack:hands/vp$ip/pfr/af/wts/ats/foldbb/w$sd;Hero$44,39:///////;MP2$75,26:///////;[/tg]
1,00/2,00 No-Limit Hold'em (10 handed)
Hand recorder used for this poker hand: Texas Grabem 1.9 by www.pokerstrategy.com.
Preflop: Hero is SB with T♦, T♠. MP2 posts a blind of $2,00.
4 folds, MP2 checks, 3 folds, Hero raises to $10,00, BB folds, MP2 calls $8,00.
Flop: ($22,00) 4♥, 7♦, A♣ (2 players)
Hero bets $11,00, MP2 raises to $22,00, Hero folds.
Final Pot: $55,00
we don't have an stats for MP2. as you can see my opponent just posted his blind in middle position. that's already an information: he doesn't wait for the BB and pays a higher prize in order to start immediately. very often this is typical for bad players. another information we get is his strange buy in: 75.26$. looks like its his last money. of course this is not always the case but as well I would judge this as typical for bad players.
=> you see: even without stats its possible to get some first reads.
After his preflop check I assume he's on a pretty weak hand. thus I love to raise TT which will be way ahead of his random posting range. MP2 however decides to call my raise which doesn't reall hurt me but gives some other information: he'll often have a hand which he's too scared to raise but is nevertheless worth taking a look at the flop (in the eyes of a bad player :)) Imo those hands are often suited or connected, e.g. some low suited Aces, suited kings/queens and some mediocre suited connectors or gappers. in addition low pockets are also likely. But usually we can say that big broadway combinations or big pairs aren't that often in his post/call range.
After my flopcbet which I'll almost always make ~1/2 Pot on such a board and my decision to fold some users in the channel spoke for not giving up. Let's reevaluate my play:
If I continue I'll push. making a call just commits you and makes you feel bad when you face another turnbet. The pot odds I get for an all-in are 22$+11$+34.39$/23.39$ = 2.88:1 and I thus need 25.8% equity to be breakeven (with rake its a bit more). Now its time to evaluate our equity against MP2s total range. What stands behind his raise? Imo its often an ace. even though its not a board where MP2 needs to protect I experience often that bad players like to raise their Ace against shortstacks here. The reason is they don't fear going broke due to our small stack. Well, then the board is dry. besides 65 there is no stong draw out. thus the portion of draws will be pretty small. finally we have to take into account that MP2 could still be bluffing. with his minraise he's getting a very decent risk/return ratio and besides that this board is in fact good to raise me. Why? Well, we will make a cbet with any2 we hold on such a Ace high board but on the other hand we have a hard time calling a raise with everything which isn't an Ace. My argument was however that we don't have any information for MP2s postflop play. In such spots I tend to chose the safer and less swingy play. That's why I folded. Nevertheless we should take a closer look at our equity against MP2s likely range.
I chose:
55% Ax (no 2pair combos) => we have 8.7% equity left
10% 44/77 and 2 AA combos => 6.8% equity left
10% two pair (A7,A4,74) => 8.3%
5% strong draw (65) => 65.3%
10% midpair like 88-TT => 87.7%
10% air,weak draw (like KJ, 86o ect) => ~75%
According to this assumptions which I really just made very roughly we have:
Total equity = 0.55*8.7% + 0.1*6.8% + 0.1*8.3% + 0.05*65.3% + 0.1*87.7% + 0.1*75% = 25.83%
Our EV with rake of 3$ for calling his all-in (I assume he did raise us all-in) would be:
EV = 0.2583*64.39$ - 0.7417*23.39$ = -0.72$
In this scenario we would make loss. Of course if we add more bluffs and reduce the Ax portion we can achieve a small profit. But do we know? We would feel great if we catch a bluff. But imo we'll be way behind most of the time. IN addition we just don't have enough information to make more accurate estimations about MP2s range.
With the seven in hearts (or maybe better for us another diamond on the flop) the situation changes a bit to our favour. We could then increase the amount of possible draws in MP2s range and would have a better profit. But overall I think this board is too dry for assuming much draws/semibluffs.
I would welcome some feedback. Feel free to discuss this hand
Regards,
xarry
Next coaching on wednesday 05/13 will start 30 mins earlier => 18:30 until 20:00!
regards,
xarry
Adv SSS Coaching - 05/13
Hey, sorry for beeing late! But better late than never
Known players: (for a description of vp$ip, pfr, ats, folded bb, af, wts, wsd or hands click here)
[tg]Position_Stack:hands/vp$ip/pfr/af/wts/ats/foldbb/w$sd;BB$599,86:///////;Hero$185,00:///////;[/tg]
5,00/10,00 No-Limit Hold'em (9 handed)
Hand recorder used for this poker hand: Texas Grabem 1.9 by www.pokerstrategy.com.
Preflop: Hero is CO with Q♥, T♦
5 folds, Hero raises to $30,00, 2 folds, BB calls $20,00.
Flop: ($65,00) 8♠, 8♣, K♥ (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $33,00, BB calls $33,00.
Turn: ($131,00) J♠ (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks.
River: ($131,00) 7♣ (2 players)
BB bets $122,00, Hero folds.
Final Pot: $253,00
BB: 44/17, 120 Hands
Even though BB is pretty loose and aggressive I like to steal QT here. If we get a reraise we can get easily out of the pot. If we get called, which I think will be the case pretty often I would say we don't have problems playing our hand. I always try to think about how my hand runs against the likely calling ranges of our opponent. such a loose player will call with many many weaker hands. I may be dominated by QJ or KT but since he seems to be aggressive I don't assume he just calls with hands like AT or KQ. Thus if we make a postlfop hit our goal will usually be to get the money in - and we'll have postition and initiative.
Since the board does not offer any draws and is anyway hard to hit with out a K or an 8 I cbet around 1/2 Pot. Even though BB is loose I think we'll definetely have enough FE. For 1/2P it just need to be like 33%+ (in this hand exactly 33,67%+) to make profit.
After BB calls me I put him mostly on Kx. He could also slowplay 8x and as well I would give him pocket pairs like 22-77. More passive opponents could also have 99 or TT. However I don't think the aggressive BB will have those medium pairs after just calling preflop.
On the Turn I have the choice between 2nd barreling and checking behind. I decided to checkbehind because we gained many outs through the J. Besides that the Q and T can be good sometimes, too. I'll have like 8-10 outs remaining. In addition the only hands BB would fold are 22-77. There are no draws out as well. Thus the Kx or 8x type hands will make up the biggest part of his range imo. And he obviously won't fold those hands. If there was a flushdraw out which does not arrive on the Turn I would probably consider the 2nd barrel more.
The stacksize I have left is nice for a 2nd barrel. Its always good not to have only 1/2 Pot left to push on the turn. This does usually not create enough FE. with 122$ in 135$ pot however we could put pressure on weaker hands (but as said before these hands aren't a big part of BB range).
What I also like is that If we hit our draw on the river we'll usually get a payout from all made hands BB has. if not we can get out of the pot if he leads the river. against another check from BB I would maybe consider a bet. usually the rivercheck after the checkbehind of the preflop aggressor indicates that the opponent does not have a good made hand. he would usually valuebet it again. I'm not sure wether to bet or not however. Against tighter opponents and on boards where weak made hands or draws are more likely the bet is nice. But I could imagine BB calls with his low pockets again. Thus I would probably check behind on the river without more information.