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TPGK + FD vs shove OTF

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DannyHorsley
Joined: 03.12.2014

888 Poker - $0.05 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BB: 129.4 BB (VPIP: 20.93, PFR: 13.95, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 43)
UTG: 108.2 BB (VPIP: 32.00, PFR: 32.00, 3Bet Preflop: 20.00, Hands: 27)
CO: 100 BB (VPIP: 22.22, PFR: 22.22, 3Bet Preflop: 20.00, Hands: 9)
Hero (BTN): 100 BB
SB: 145.2 BB (VPIP: 23.08, PFR: 15.38, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 27)

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has J♦ A♦

UTG raises to 4.2 BB, fold, Hero raises to 12 BB, fold, fold, UTG raises to 32.4 BB, Hero calls 20.4 BB

Flop: (66.2 BB, 2 players) A♠ T♦ 4♦
UTG bets 75.8 BB and is all-in ....

Turn: (201.4 BB, 2 players) 3♣

River: (201.4 BB, 2 players) 7♥

filip212 and I have spent some time looking at this hand, thinking whether or not we should call or fold here.

We don't have a huge sample on villain but he does appear to be quite loose with what we have seen so far. After 4betting pre flop and then shoving OTF we put him on the following range: AhAc, AhKh, AcKc, AhKd, AhKs, AhKc, AcKd, AcKh, AcKs, KK, TT.

Against this range we have an equity of 40.3% and so a call is good with 33.56% pot odds.

Would love to hear your guys' opinions on our analysis! I might even let you see the spoiler as well ;)


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2 replies
Tonyx86
Joined: 28.03.2018

Intresting hand. I think his range is capped. I dont see him donk jamming OTF with top set. He more likely would donk half pot. AK and AQ does make the most sense to me. Maybe AT. JJ-KK...? More likely than strong hands.

All in all a call and a note on villain, because the play doesnt make much sense.


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DannyHorsley
Joined: 03.12.2014

Based on his preflop play I’m not sure we can say his range is capped here. He could be jamming because of the draws and thinking that he may still get value from AQ or AJ hands.


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