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JJ set, easy call vs huge overbet on river?

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RemiRem
Joined: 27.12.2009

PokerStars - $0.05 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 100 BB (VPIP: 33.33, PFR: 6.67, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 16)
SB: 86.8 BB (VPIP: 14.29, PFR: 14.29, 3Bet Preflop: 10.00, Hands: 21)
BB: 120.6 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 2)
UTG: 135.4 BB (VPIP: 100.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 1)
Hero (MP): 158 BB
CO: 100 BB (VPIP: 50.00, PFR: 50.00, 3Bet Preflop: -, Hands: 2)

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has J♠ J♥

fold, Hero raises to 3 BB, fold, fold, fold, BB calls 2 BB

Flop: (6.4 BB, 2 players) 3♥ Q♦ J♣
BB checks, Hero bets 4.6 BB, BB calls 4.6 BB

Turn: (15.6 BB, 2 players) 8♥
BB checks, Hero bets 10 BB, BB calls 10 BB

River: (35.6 BB, 2 players) 5♣
BB bets 103 BB and is all-in, Hero ?

I know I beat 99% hands here, but he reps T9 so well here :) Is it an easy call considering i have invested so little so far?


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7 replies
CucumbaMan
Joined: 13.10.2017

I think I'd go broke here. He could have 33 as well, maybe AQ, or maybe even QJ.


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MyFloXyBabY
Joined: 15.02.2010

I'd be really surprised if he showed AQ or QJ (that we're strongly blocking anyway) here lol. It's much more polarized.
He has to bluff more than 40% of the time for us to call here and I don't think he does.


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RemiRem
Joined: 27.12.2009

If it quacks like a duck, walks like a duck, its a duck. I folded here :/


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zetozinho
Joined: 18.06.2017

I can count on the fingers of one hand the times I've seen someone firing a bet that's 3 times the pot.
This is either a monster bluff or he has QQ /T9. Maybe QJ, that you block, and that's it.
AQ I don't think is plausible.
Can't blame anyone for calling here, it's a really tough spot.


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Ihuarraquax
Joined: 13.12.2016

For me it is a call. I would be scared a bit, but still believe we are ahead.


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la55i
Joined: 27.01.2013

We need to win about 43% of the time, more if we count in the rake. I think this line is too value heavy. I wouldn't take the risk.


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MLima1984
Joined: 19.05.2015

Probably would go broke here :/


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