
Flop cbet is mandatory imo. When he raises I think he has a wide range to do it from the BTN given the board.
Decided to 3bet and put pressure on him. Size is my main doubt here. I think a call is meh.
Turn is blank. He could have J9 and I was already beaten OTF but that's it.
Pot is the size of my stack so I shove this. Maybe strong draws call this? QT?
I didn't want to bet, get raised again and be on a very tough spot. Is shove fine?
KK, QQ, TT probably 3bet pre. 88 doesn't really look like it.
You could check/raise that flop, he isn't supposed to check back troublesome hands for you (the best candidates for a check back are combos such as low PP that are no threat to you and wouldn't call a cbet anyway).
As played it's ok but note that if shoving is fine it's because betting lower and getting raised wouldn't get you in a "though spot". Or if it did then shoving would be problematic too.
Your relative hand strength in not great. Flop 3bet is a terrible overplay. It's better to bet/call OTF and reevaluate OTT. Bet OTF to protect against Jx, FD.
Be carefull on 3 broadway boards. Many straights are possible. AJs, AJo, J9s [20 comb]. 2 pair like KQ crushes you. You are ahead of T♣:x:club: and A♣:x:club: flush draws only with 60% equity [which is only about 12-15 combos, so not enough]
One pair combos - zero, none. Unless KJ (pair + GS) [6 comb], but against that you only have ~50% equity.
Look:
Board: K♣T♥Q♣
Equity Win Tie
MP2 33.95% 32.94% 1.01% { KdTs }
BB 66.05% 65.04% 1.01% { AJs, KJs+, J9s, AcTc, JcTc, Ac9c, Tc9c, Ac8c, Jc8c, Tc8c, 9c8c, Ac7c, Ac6c, Ac5c, Ac4c, Ac3c, Ac2c, AJo, KJo+ }
You are fu**ed! Only 33% equity and you 3bet vs that.
PS. Even misplayed AA vs you have 40% equity.
I believe flop sizing is quite bad. You should use overbet (I use 150%). I don´t like xr as a default (but that´d would change with high freq of BTN´s stab) with 2p, I think sets would do much better with that line. As played I like it, maybe a bit bigger 3b OTF, so pot OTR is 75 and we shove only around 68 (it "looks" smaller).
Athletic: Im missing at least QT and QJ in your ranges. I think AJo would still 3b very often preflop at NL2 (more often than it should) and AJs I would expect to see in cc very rarely.
Yeah AthleticAZ range is quite pessimistic but he's supposing villain isn't too fishy and all I guess, as I clearly wasn't.
Mozzek you are too picky with exact combos whereas even great players don't agree on how much AJ we should or shouldn't 3bet pre BU vs CO (for the record Matthew Janda proposes in his last book to flat every AJo and 3bet every AJs whereas our dear coach Lemon just 3bet each and every Ax he plays and argues that there isn't any problem with that) so expecting NL2 random players to follow your own trend is quite optimistic.
We have to deal with the fact that there is some randomness and uncertainty in our making of ranges. (We can eventually put weights.)
Well, I just wanted to say, that if I was to construct ranges, I would completely remove Ajs and put in AJo with 50% frequencies (and that should turn odds into our favor). Also ppl will have much wider cc than they should, which will also work in our favor. That´s my view .).
How do you play OTT after a bet call OTF? Check and pray? Check-raise all in seems non sense to me. Donk?
OOP is very difficult to manage this, as it is in most spots.
Yes, u´re right, it´s difficult, that´s why I´d fast play it :). I think when others suggested xr, they meant regular sizing, like 3x raise.
Originally posted by Mozzek
Athletic: Im missing at least QT and QJ in your ranges. I think AJo would still 3b very often preflop at NL2 (more often than it should) and AJs I would expect to see in cc very rarely.
QT shouldn't ever raise this flop as well as QJ. At least for me it doesn't make sense to raise those hands. QT is a clear mid-strength hand and is a mistake to raise. QJ, the same, but with a good draw component, so we don't want to fold too much equity if Villain re-raises.
As for AJ, sure we can weight those combos, where some 3bet and some cold call.
Originally posted by zetozinho
How do you play OTT after a bet call OTF? Check and pray? Check-raise all in seems non sense to me. Donk?
OOP is very difficult to manage this, as it is in most spots.
x/c OTF and then reevaluate OTT. This spot sucks, but it doesn't mean we have to bet/3bet OTF.
Yes, it is going to be hard decision OTT. That's life.
EDIT: I meant bet/call.
I don´t know, if it should raise or not, but that´s not my point. I´m saying, that ppl at NL10 raise it very frequently. I got no evidence tho, so I cant provide you with pool analysis. QJ I can take back, not sure about it.
OK, I see your point. At 10NL anything is possible, sure.
While this might be OK for 10NL, later on higher stakes this will be a huge mistake. For that reason we can assume that perhaps getting it in OTF might be OK against some opponents (fun players), but we have to be very careful about this.
I'm asking specifically what you would do when the 8 comes OTT supposing you did bet/call OTF and that BTN is a world class player.
Check or bet?
Originally posted by zetozinho
I'm asking specifically what you would do when the 8 comes OTT supposing you did bet/call OTF and that BTN is a world class player.
Check or bet?
I'd bet/call OTF, and x/c OTT since 8s is not the worst card for us and most of Villains bluffs did not improve OTT. I'd x/f any
turn, f.e.
My main target in this hand is to keep Villains range wider. With bet/3bet we accomplish the opposite, but with b/call OTF we keep his bluffs in. OTT I'd check to let him keep bluffing.
EDIT: Why so serious? World class player? ♦
Originally posted by AthleticAZ
My main target in this hand is to keep Villains range wider. With bet/3bet we accomplish the opposite, but with b/call OTF we keep his bluffs in. OTT I'd check to let him keep bluffing.
EDIT: Why so serious? World class player? ♦
Now tell me, isn't a world class player capable of knowing this?
He'll know you want to keep his bluffs. So, checks back OTT and your pretty much playing the guessing game OTR. He has position, so he's in heaven at that point.
That's not so simple. And if he checks back a lot on the turn we are happy too. We are seeing all the board cheaply.
Originally posted by MyFloXyBabY
That's not so simple. And if he checks back a lot on the turn we are happy too. We are seeing all the board cheaply.
Good point. Always nice to see free cards OOP.
Despite the fact that any A, J, 9, Q completely demolish what's left of our dignity ♦
What does a solver say about this? I haven't one, but it would be nice if someone could reproduce this up there.
Well, but seing every street is for our hand bad isn´t it? Bunch of cards kills us and only on few we improve. If you xc OTF, I´d xshove OTT. We have really good blockers: we don´t block set (TT) and we don´t block his AT of clubs (maybe even AcTx), which might be very good bluff/value hand. And at the end of the day, QT will stack off there all day as well (sorry but I still cant imagine NL10 player folds it), AJ we agreed are sometimes 3b, so he doesn´t have all of them in his range.
Ultimately I like xc flop and xshove turn the most (I mean if we were to check, as I still prefer overbet OTF). He will very often continue OTT imo here. Also if you wanted to xc again OTT, keep in mind ppl dont bluff enough OTR, so I don´t think you wanna bluffcatch.
For starter, no it's not really bad for our hand if "a bunch of cards kills us", you should really not reason like that, any dangerous card for us is also dangerous for him (us too can make flushes or straight, it's not easy for him to bluff/value thin) and anyway his strong draws won't fold if we bet so we might as well keep the pot small and ranges wider.
That's for our hand but anyway I was talking about our range. If you deny villain the possiblity to second barrel a decent amount IP you've accomplished something (or rather he might have done something wrong but whatever). I was reacting to the "I can't just flat on the flop because he's gonna check back on a lot of turn cards" which is a nonsense. The more he doesn't apply pressure later the more you make profits with your flop call, realizing your equity, denying his positional advantage and all.
Well, but when J comes for example, we get no more value of QT. So there is a lot of cards, that kills the action. You wanna keep the pot small because you are afraid that KT is not in fact strong enough to play for stacks here I guess? Because otherwise, I wanna build the pot to charge his equity.
Right.