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(FR) cbeting overcards IP in non scary board, 3 bet pot pre

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pguest
Joined: 01.04.2009

I still find very hard selecting the spots to bluff.
I didn't have any postflop stat for that villain.

$0.02 NL - Holdem - 9 players

SB: 115.5 BB (VPIP: 18.18, PFR: 6.06, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 34)
BB: 102.5 BB (VPIP: 7.14, PFR: 7.14, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 14)
UTG: 117.5 BB (VPIP: 17.20, PFR: 16.13, 3Bet Preflop: 6.67, Hands: 93)
UTG+1: 40 BB (VPIP: 50.00, PFR: 42.86, 3Bet Preflop: 25.00, Hands: 14)
Hero (MP): 103 BB
MP+1: 95 BB (VPIP: 15.56, PFR: 15.56, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 46)
MP+2: 99 BB (VPIP: 18.97, PFR: 10.34, 3Bet Preflop: 1.69, Hands: 176)
CO: 100 BB (VPIP: 16.55, PFR: 11.51, 3Bet Preflop: 6.25, Hands: 140)
BTN: 151 BB (VPIP: 17.96, PFR: 4.64, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 328)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has A♠ K♣

UTG raises to 3 BB, fold, Hero raises to 9 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, UTG calls 6 BB

Flop: (19.5 BB, 2 players) 4♠ 9♣ T♠
Thoughts and questions:

Spoiler

should I go for it with overcards + bd fd? The board doesn't look scary, but I'm not sure how well that board hits villain range...
Thinking in retro, I guess he could have something like AQs+, AKo or JJ-QQ? Maybe 99-TT?

UTG checks, Hero bets 9.5 BB, UTG calls 9.5 BB

Turn: (38.5 BB, 2 players) A♥
Thoughts and questions:

Spoiler

Well, there is no point of bluffing OTF, if I don't cbet when I hit, so...
At this point, should I fold for a villain check/raise (a possible TT-99) or should I continue (villain could do that with AQo or even AK)?

UTG checks, Hero bets 18.5 BB, fold

Spoiler

Hero wins 37 BB


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1 reply
Mozzek
Joined: 16.07.2016

This is very bad flop for your range. Villain will have TT-99 (some stations even 44). You have no sets on this flop = you have no stack off range on this flop (apart from QsJs, 8s7s). I would kick off with a check here on the flop (the other option might be big bet - 3/4 - pot size, but I don´t like this that much). We have As, so aren´t afraid of spade. By checking we also keep in his range hands, which we dominate (eg. KQ, AQ...), so if K comes, we can get some extra value. T is tricky, I don´t see many hands we get value from, so TBH I don´t know what to do (because I wouldn´t cbet OTF :)).


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