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Facing raise all-in on river with a set

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Bruenorx
Joined: 15.09.2014

Hi,

one hand from 4.40$ tournament. So I raise a bit looser from UTG with 55, but it was 7 handed. Flop, doesn't hits me, so it goes check-check and it definitely hits BB more than me with UTG range. On the turn I hit set. But there is a possibility of straight or flush. I bet, got call. River A might be good to get some value even though I have more Aces in my range. But after my bet I receive all-in raise. I need to call just 16bb to pot of 56. Needs like 30%, so it feels ok. Tried it in equilab as well and it says I have like 66% againts his range which I think might be something like this - all flashes shavs on river, all two pair hands and some tens - 88, 66, A8s, A5s, KTs, QTs, 86s+, KhQh, KhJh, QhJh, Ah9h, Kh9h, Qh9h, Jh9h, Ah7h, Kh7h, Qh7h, Jh7h, Th7h, 9h7h, Ah6h, Kh6h, Qh6h, Jh6h, Th6h, 9h6h, Ah4h, Kh4h, Ah3h, Kh3h, Ah2h, Kh2h, AJo-ATo, A8o, A6o, KTo, QTo, JTo, 97o. So even if his shav on river would be much tighter than I think it should be profitable to call. What do you think about it?

PokerStars - 100/200 Ante 20 NL - Holdem - 7 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

MP: 44.52 BB (VPIP: 40.74, PFR: 11.11, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 27)
CO: 34.66 BB (VPIP: 20.18, PFR: 16.36, 3Bet Preflop: 7.32, Hands: 114)
BTN: 15.99 BB (VPIP: 13.64, PFR: 4.76, 3Bet Preflop: 11.11, Hands: 22)
SB: 27.58 BB (VPIP: 11.54, PFR: 8.00, 3Bet Preflop: 14.29, Hands: 26)
BB: 27.65 BB (VPIP: 33.33, PFR: 14.81, 3Bet Preflop: 14.29, Hands: 27)
Hero (UTG): 33.7 BB
UTG+1: 33.08 BB (VPIP: 25.93, PFR: 3.85, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 27)

7 players post ante of 0.1 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.2 BB) Hero has 5♦ 5♣

Hero raises to 2.25 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, BB calls 1.25 BB

Flop: (5.7 BB, 2 players) 6♠ T♥ 8♥
BB checks, Hero checks

Turn: (5.7 BB, 2 players) 5♥
BB checks, Hero bets 3.5 BB, BB calls 3.5 BB

River: (12.7 BB, 2 players) A♦
BB checks, Hero bets 5 BB, BB raises to 21.8 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 16.8 BB

Spoiler

BB shows 2♥ A♥ (Flush, Ace High)
(Pre 34%, Flop 48%, Turn 77%)
Hero shows 5♦ 5♣ (Three of a Kind, Fives)
(Pre 66%, Flop 52%, Turn 23%)
BB wins 56.3 BB


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SDK1987
Joined: 12.11.2008

It's again tricky, but I doubt you would barrel often on the turn with an ace.
Anyway you get so good odds on the river that it's tough to fold with any set and if he's better it's a cooler for me. Especially against most likely a weak player based on his stats.

Cheers,
SDK1987


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