Stack off! My poker goals, vision and improvement

Poker Stars, $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players

SB: $53.90 (215.6 bb)
Hero (BB): $25 (100 bb)
UTG: $35.39 (141.6 bb)
MP: $28.52 (114.1 bb)
CO: $71.89 (287.6 bb)
BTN: $45.02 (180.1 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BB with Q♣: Q♥:
3 folds, BTN raises to $0.50, SB folds, Hero raises to $2, BTN calls $1.50

Flop: ($4.10) Q♦: 6♦: 7♦: (2 players)
Hero bets $3, BTN calls $3

Turn: ($10.10) A♣: (2 players)
Hero bets $8, BTN raises to $40.02 and is all-in, Hero calls $12 and is all-in

Villains preflop 3bet calling range: 99-22,AQo-ATo,KQo-KJo,AQs-A2s,KQs-K8s,QJs-Q9s,JTs-J8s,T9s-T8s,98s-97s,87s,76s

OTF: There are multiple chances that Villain would raise some Flushes and sets OTF and some chance that he would slow play. Can’t know for sure, so I’ll explore optimistic and pessimistic range constructions OTT.

OTT: I’m given 24% equity OTT to call for BE result. I’ll assume that I need 30% to make profit. (because of rake)

Hands that I beat: 77, 66, AQs, AQo
Hands that beat me, but I have some equity: Diamond flushes
Hands that completely crush me: 0

OTT raise evaluation: It is likely that Villain might not play AQ this way, so I need to consider weighting it down heavily in pessimistic scenario, but upwards in optimistic scenario. The same with 66 and 77.

Scenario #1: Villain raises all made flushes and sets OTF, but call with AQ, therefore leaving room for AQ only shoves OTT.

Board: Q♦7♦6♦ A♣
Equity Win Tie
MP2 11.36% 11.36% 0.00% { AQs, AQo }
BB 88.64% 88.64% 0.00% { QhQc }

Scenario #2: Villain only raises flushes OTF, but calls AQ and 66, 77.

Board: Q♦7♦6♦ A♣
Equity Win Tie
MP2 5.30% 5.30% 0.00% { 77-66, AQs, AQo }
BB 94.70% 94.70% 0.00% { QhQc }

Scenario #3: Villain raises all value hands OTT: AQ, 77, 66 and flushes

Board: Q♦7♦6♦ A♣
Equity Win Tie
MP2 53.96% 53.96% 0.00% { 77-66, AQs, AdJd, KdJd, AdTd, KdTd, JdTd, Ad9d, Kd9d, Jd9d, Td9d, Ad8d, Kd8d, Jd8d, Td8d, 9d8d, Ad7d, 9d7d, 8d7d, Ad6d, Ad5d, Ad4d, Ad3d, Ad2d, AQo }
BB 46.04% 46.04% 0.00% { QhQc }

I need 30% equity and call is +EV.

Scenario #4: Villain raises all set OTF as protection, but decides to trap with flushes and can’t jam AQ OTT, because wants to keep bluffs (+AK) alive vs Hero

Board: Q♦7♦6♦ A♣
Equity Win Tie
MP2 78.28% 78.28% 0.00% { AdJd, KdJd, AdTd, KdTd, JdTd, Ad9d, Kd9d, Jd9d, Td9d, Ad8d, Kd8d, Jd8d, Td8d, 9d8d, Ad7d, 9d7d, 8d7d, Ad6d, Ad5d, Ad4d, Ad3d, Ad2d }
BB 21.72% 21.72% 0.00% { QhQc }

This scenario gives us around 20% equity to improve with 1 card to come. If we make a mistake calling in this scenario it is not that dramatic. This can be a sweet spot from where I can assume my worst outcome and then add hands into Villain’s range.

Cool scales

Let’s see what happens if I add sets and AQ . By combinatorics we know that we have 6 set combos and 3 AQ combos. So here we have a table of 9 possible outcomes:

Scales are smart:

Conclusion: We need Villain to only have 2 combinations of sets or 2pair, which is quite realistic. There is also a possibility that Villain would fast play non nut flushes (for value + protection reasons vs single AdXx).
Note: Our worst hand in scenario like this should be sets. Next best hand - AQ doesn’t have re-draw opportunities and draw only for 4 outs max.

You think people always 4bet TT-JJ pre here and never call 56s, 86s, 75s ?

I don't know. It's quite random (meaning TT-JJ). On this board and turn action this part of the range doesn't play a big role, so I didn't really need to be that precise pre-flop.

Probably TT-JJ call more often in regular 6 max games and 4bet more often in ZOOM games.

Yeah no interest in that spot I was just curious.
Funny I would have said the opposite about regular and zoom tables, I'd expect people to be nittier pre in zoom.

Nice hand analysis, very detailed.
Keep up the great work

Deleted most graphs from this blog. I don't see much of a purpose of those. In fact, I think they are great tilt inducers.
They are also boring. Like, if there isn't going to be a trend to go up, right?

Interesting fact. I used to play poker for fun at start. Then I got better and it became a slightly less fun game with a chance of a small profit. Now, I can win stuff, but it's not fun to play. I like the money, though. I mean, playing process just sucks very often. Most fun part is ... learning something and understanding concepts that I didn't grasp before.

Returned to Optimizing Ace King. Nice book. I'd say it's one of the better books that I have read about poker. Mostly in a way that keeps me thinking about possibilities of ranges and hands that I'd need to prefer when bluffing/semi-bluffing (or not bluffing). Most importantly, it makes me question stuff that I used to do before (still do) and it's good in a way that it's always better in poker not to be a robot, but rather be creative.

i can understand that. even as a quite decent pre-rakeback winner, poker is very stressful, isn't it?

at some point, one realizes that they have reached some point where the idea of poker as a "job" actually becomes rather viable. there, you need to be honest with yourself.
do you actually want to play for a living or not? while it's tempting to think "yes", i have realized that the answer for me is probably a "no"... but it's still very nice to have it as supplementary income or a backup option.