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5$ | FR | T |bubble| A2o

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Coach
maniac
Joined: 29.03.2006

hi,

bu is a loose passive player with on the bubble stats of 36/10/0 on 14. He suddenly wakes up and I knew I have to go all the way if a make some action. I most likely need to hit my flush he and thought thats not worth is risking my position at the table. Party, $5 Buy-in (80/160 blinds, 20 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 4 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

SB: 4,453 (27.8 bb)
BB: 2,392 (15 bb)
Hero (CO): 4,758 (29.7 bb)
BTN: 1,897 (11.9 bb)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 2♥: A♣:
Hero raises to 320, BTN calls 320, 2 folds

Flop: (960) J♣: 4♣: Q♣: (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets 960, Hero folds

Results:

Spoiler

960 pot
Final Board: J♣: 4♣: Q♣:
Hero mucked 2♥: A♣: and lost (-340 net)
BTN mucked and won 960 (620 net)

greets

maniac


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9 replies
Moderator
SDK1987
Joined: 12.11.2008

I would most likely bet around half pot on flop and if he's shoving you can still fold, but it's tough fold when you are drawing to the nuts with 2 cards to come.

Cheers,
SDK1987


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koiota1
Joined: 09.12.2017

I like stabing this flop good and win the hand here.
I'd even go for an overbet push here considering his stack, and the bubble factor get the maximum fold equity from all the Jx, Qx hands wich he has in his range .

Once checked I'd fold to this pot bet and almost no stack left behind him.
Like if had a bit more than 10bb on flop and had bet something like a 1/3th I would go check raise push but like that I'll fold too.

That's just my humble oppenion, how I'd play the hand but I'm a bit of a donk sooo ...πŸ˜‚πŸ˜‚πŸ˜‚


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Coach
maniac
Joined: 29.03.2006

thats what I ment If I stab I have to call it off.


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ghaleon
Joined: 17.10.2007

Is it surprising that 36/10 guy finds call button? I would expect that to happen decently often even though BU should have no flatting range. Which is why I would prefer to just open fold to not get called from position and having really crappy hand playability wise. Lot better to open this if we don't have calling machines behind.

As played we actually get fairly good flop even if villain quite often hits QJ part of flop. For me this would be clear bet-call with nut flush draw and overcard.


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koiota1
Joined: 09.12.2017

# ghaleon What would you think the correct cbet sizing would be here?
Considering villian stack?
I already said I'll overbet ( cuz I come from donkland πŸ˜‚ lol ) my 2nd favorite is gonna be potbet .
It's an interesting spot tho.


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ghaleon
Joined: 17.10.2007

Originally posted by koiota1
# ghaleon What would you think the correct cbet sizing would be here?
Considering villian stack?
I already said I'll overbet ( cuz I come from donkland πŸ˜‚ lol ) my 2nd favorite is gonna be potbet .
It's an interesting spot tho.

My plan would be to bet around 400 and shove any turn with this hand if villain call and go allin versus flop raise. E.g. if we bet 400 and villain shove it will be around 1.1k to call for total pot of 4.1k so we need 27% cEV wise and not much more with ICM. We will have that versus villain range.

In general I would not want to shove huge amount of value hands in this spot (even though its sensible with some on monotone board like this) so I would tend to bet same sort of size with semibluffs and bluffs as well. You can argue that shove or committing size will create more fold equity which might or might not be true. This monotone board does make some sense to shove hands like good top pair or overpair without club as value hand to protect versus awkward club on turn. But in many cases when people make overshoves as cbet or as some donk bet its more commonly with semibluffs than value hands. So idea to "create max fold equity" might also backfire if villain starts to think in line of "why is this guy betting so big...?".

Also if we bet like 400 and shove turn villain does possibly get into two different spots where he can fold. Plus if we decide to bet with AhTs here to try take pot down relatively cheaply we have option for it. I am not saying balancing is important in itself in this particular spot but balanced ranges has lot of good things in them (if having solid ranges) like I tried to explain above. If you think that versus this player in this spot shoving this hand and perhaps some other is best option its totally fine. You might have best reads on opponent type on this player pool.


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Coach
maniac
Joined: 29.03.2006

lets discuss a 3rd option. How about a check shove flop? If we want to bet call anyway. A freecard doesnt hurt us at all. This should widen his range. Hands that would have folded to a cbet. since he got money in the pot he is likely to stack of lighter or make a ridiculous fold.

greets

maniac


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ghaleon
Joined: 17.10.2007

Check-shove has some problems like you can face big enough bet that you cannot expect fold equity like happened now. Also while you definitely can slowplay some strong hands like big flush or AcAx etc. checking will still cap your range somewhat. Meaning it will likely decrease your fold equity and allow villain to realize equity for free.


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Coach
maniac
Joined: 29.03.2006

oh I dont think I have fe anyway. I just want make his range wider. Due to checking. We just want to bet monsters to protect and even the fd one doesnt need protection. This guy is a fish I dont need to balace my ranges. You are correct vs a reg.

greets

maniac


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