Hi,
I played yesterday about 2.1K hands and like to talk about variance. Of course the amount of played hand is not even close to make a good judgement, but i can show you with some simpel math that variance is always in the air.
Well in the 1ste course of statistics i learned that chances of red or black (roulette) is per each time 50%, but it differs if you calculate over amount of times.
So lets see my hands yesterday:
I had AA with ship pre versus 88 (80% favorite), versus KQo (87% favorite), versus AQ (87% favorite)
I had AK vs J9s (62% favorite), vs AQo (72%).
And etc. etc..
But we only know now what are the indivudual chances, but lets calculate what chances i had to win all these hands mentioned above:
Chance to win all 5 hands = 0,80*0,87*0,87*0,62*0,72 = 27%
So Im lucky i won all these hands, because i only win all of them in ca. 30% of the time. So I kind of should lose one or more of the hands, feels different isn't it?
So more big hands you get dealt more chance you gonna lose. Feels sick, but we just can't argue with math of stats.
At fast poker tables/zoom we can experience this more frequently because we get dealt big hands much faster.
So what is remedia? What can we do?
I believe we must focus on following plays:
more thin value bets, we have to get all the value we can now we probably have the best hand
more squeeze plays vs late postions opens and callers
Abuse the button/CO position with opens and 3betting
Make more notes on villains
What do you think, let me know, did I mis something?
