River sizing w AA when board pairs

Can you explain your reasoning here. As I see it most of his range on river consists of 9X and TX hands. With 2 T on board he must have 9X whey more often, so he is just folding to 3rd barrel, no matter how small it is. If you X many of those 9X will become bluffs so, for me, it makes much more sence to X/C river in this spot.
Secondly, if river bricked why would you like to shove. All one pair hands have to fold to a shove on this board, and 2 pair and better have you beat. I would actually like your bet if river bricked, because then he can have much more TX hands that have to call.
Maybe I’m wrong here, I would like your opinion on this.

Bet river will receive call by only one combo that you are winning, JJ. I think that x/c it's a better decision.

Originally posted by romanista06
Bet river will receive call by only one combo that you are winning, JJ. I think that x/c it's a better decision.

I wouldn't expect a reg to 4b QQ from CO, so I think we need to put that in his range too. I also think he is very likely to xb JJ, maybe even QQ on the river.
He also has the range advantage with all flopped sets which we have neither of, so I guess that is an option for him to have OTR too.

Some regs will allways 4bet QQ here, and some will allways flat. I have almost same stats as your villain (it could be me ;-) ) and I usually 4bet 50% of QQ and flat 50%, so QQ are possible but you can’t count on many of them. He also can have 3 combos of XsJs that can call flop and turn, so that about evens out with QQ combos. I also think good reg should raise all his 2 pair + hands on this turn, so only question is how many 9X hands he has. All in all I think shove would be bad here no matter what comes on river.
P.S. I also must say that I personally have 0 9X hands in this spot (except 99) and I would call you with big part on my range, so your bet is actually perfect against me ;-)

Will you take the same line with nothing? Probably not, your range has a lot of tens, overpairs and sets, your river bet looks like "crying for some value". If I was the villain I will fold even QQ, because you have KK+ almost all of the time. If I was you I would check the river and let him represent the ten and bluff his missed draws.

Is it possible that both plays are reasonable? The Check/Call as explained above is wise. But, if Hero's AA is still best, by betting he is picking up more chips if Villain calls with a worse hand. If Hero decides to bet, the modest 21 BB River bet size seems fine. Hero does not want to invest too much if he ran into trip 10's at River. This scenario challenges me often. I sometimes play it Check/Call. Sometimes, I bet small and call. I hope to not face a large River bet or raise. So, again my question is. Are both plays are reasonable?

Yap, both players are good regs. Question is what worse hands are in villains range that can call.
As I already said I don’t have any 9X hands in my range (that are obvious bluffs) but I have 6 combos of JJ, and 6 combos of KK/QQ, that I’m calling suca a small bet with, so his bet is perfect against me. And semiramiRNMD said he is basicly folding all but TX, and probably has some bluffs if hero checks, so against him X/C would be much better play. It’s obviously very opponent depending spot, so there is no right or wrong play. But I think we can all agree that if that river bricked it would be wrong to shove (as hero said he would do that). Right?

Shoving with a River brick just scares away your Villain when you probably have the best hand. I would bet 25 to 35 BB to lure a Call. Obviously, the bet size is debatable. It is always difficult to bet the most possible to lure a Call without over betting which causes the unwanted fold.

I love it when villain feels married to AA and put all of his money on the table.