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Sometimes You Get Lucky

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srichards
Joined: 26.11.2012

Villain’s strong Turn Raise is clearly telling me that he has a flush. PokerTracker states that I have a 16% chance of winning and a 30% call odds. I knew that the odds were not attractive. But, the implied odds intrigued me. If the River is a Spade, I know Villain will bet and I will raise to win a big hand. At the River, I did not Raise All In because I feared that Villain would fold. I am not sure if I misplayed this hand. However, I am sure that it is sometimes better to be lucky than to be smart. :)
Ignition - $0.25 NL - Holdem - 7 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (UTG+1): 97.2 BB
MP: 123.36 BB (VPIP: 15.00, PFR: 5.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 21)
CO: 7.8 BB (VPIP: 14.29, PFR: 5.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 21)
BTN: 212.56 BB (VPIP: 33.33, PFR: 14.29, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 21)
SB: 40.36 BB (VPIP: 75.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 4)
BB: 144.48 BB (VPIP: 33.33, PFR: 9.52, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 21)
UTG: 51.24 BB (VPIP: 28.57, PFR: 14.29, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 21)

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has Q♣ A♠

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) BB has 7♠ 2♠

UTG raises to 3 BB, Hero calls 3 BB, fold, fold, fold, SB calls 2.6 BB, BB calls 2 BB

Flop: (12 BB, 4 players) 4♠ 8♥ K♠
SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, Hero checks

Turn: (12 BB, 4 players) 9♠
SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets 8.56 BB, fold, BB raises to 29.96 BB, fold, Hero calls 21.4 BB

River: (71.92 BB, 2 players) T♠
BB bets 27.2 BB, Hero raises to 59.4 BB, BB calls 32.2 BB

BB shows 7♠ 2♠ (Flush, King High)
(Pre 35%, Flop 48%, Turn 84%)
Hero wins 182.72 BB


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SDK1987
Joined: 12.11.2008

The implied odds on the turn aren't decent with in mind you started with less than 100bb. If you had 144bb starting stack this would be abetter argument to call the turn. Now it's a easy fold I think.

Cheers,
SDK1987


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