Folding Straight on river here?

Easy rivercall.

He's playing not 100BB, so probably not the best.
With A, K, 10 suited cards already on the table there aren't that many suited hands possible that he should/could call the 3 bet pre.
And you only have to be right like 1 in 6 times.

Preflop 3 bet is pretty light as you said, but is not horrible I guess.

BU Preflop Range after my 3-bet call: JJ-99,AQs-ATs,KTs+,QTs+,J9s+,QJ

BU range after check on flop: JJ-99,AJs,ATs,KTs+,QTs+,J9s+,QJ
- AQ wouldve bet flop?

BU range after Turn Call: JJ,AJs,KTs+QTs,J9s+.QJ
he would probrably raise AT,TT,99, because of straight and flush draw possibilities 88-22,

whats his all in range on the river, hands I beat versus hands I lose too?

I put this info into Equilab and got an equity of 84%. is that where your getting the 1 in 6 times?

If he has 15% equity versus my 84% that means

84:15= 5.6:1 or 6:1 so i need to be correct 1 out of 7 times to be profitable?

The total pot including the .53 call is $3.01 so we can run an equity calculation to find the break even spot, .18 x $3.01 - .53 = +0.0118 , so you need to be good around 1/5.5 times.The formula for the equation is equity x total pot - call = ev.

Then you can do some range analysis with equilab to see if your getting the 18% needed to make the call.

i would probably bluffbet the flop since utg+1 probably most of the time doesent have the Ax,
also you can easily rep the Ax here and Btn can fold better hands a lot of times.

As played i would never fold the river. He will have the FD sometimes thats true, but you getting really good odds on the river for a call.
I think its always + ev to call here. Also i dont see how folding with the str, against a probably not so good player on the river with very good odds can be an option.
He will have the flush sometimes thats certain. But i would call probably all day long the river here and make +ev.

I think if he has the flush here thats just poker. I would still call probably all day long. The only reason to not to call here is if he only ever raises allin with the flush, but thats very unrealistic, since he can have bluffs and worse hands also.

Originally posted by RedsYNWA
The total pot including the .54 call is $3.01 so we can run an equity calculation to find the break even spot, .18 x $3.01 - .54 = +0.0018 , so you need to be good around 1/5.5 times.The formula for the equation is equity x total pot - call = ev.

Then you can do some range analysis with equilab to see if your getting the 18% needed to make the call.

Thank you I understand what you did now thank you very much.

Is what I am doing completely wrong?
I’m trying to convert our range equities numbers from Equilab into pot odds or lowest form so I can compare them to actual pot odds

I have 85% equity versus his 15% based on the hand ranges I assigned him.

85:15= 5.6.

Does this mean I can say I am winning 5.6 times out of 6.6 times or that I need to be correct 1 out of 5.6 times ? Do you see what I’m trying to do at least if it’s wrong?

If I am winning 5.6 times out of 6.6 does this mean I only need to be right 1 out of 6.6 times to make a good call?

1/6.6= 15% his original equity?

Wait so what I’m doing is only simplifying our equities so 85/15 = 5.6 :1

I’m winning 5.6 times out of 6.6.

The required equity tells us I need to win 1/5.5 times so we are far above that number. Is that what I was mixing up and getting confused over?

yes you only need to win around 16 % of the time at least to be break even. ( i didnt read the numbers ).

Your pot odds are the pot divided by your call 2.48..53 = 4.7 so you need to be good around 21% of the time.Our equity calculations said we we needed to be good around 18% of the time so it's a very close decision.Now you can run some ranges in equilab to see if we can get the required equity.Hopefully i haven't made a pigs ear of the calculations i think they are correct.

I understand now thanks for clearing it up for me .

$0.01/$0.02 No Limit Holdem
PokerStars
9 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by WeakTight Poker Hand History Converter

Stacks:
UTG ($2.37) 119bb
UTG+1 ($1.44) 72bb
MP1 Hero ($1.99) 100bb
MP2 ($3.98) 199bb
MP3 ($1.30) 65bb
CO ($1.57) 79bb
BTN ($1.41) 71bb
SB ($2.25) 113bb
BB ($2.41) 121bb

Pre-Flop: (0.03, 9 players) Hero is MP1 Q♥: J♣:
1 fold, UTG+1 raises to $0.06, Hero raises to $0.16, 3 folds, BTN calls $0.16, 2 folds, UTG+1 calls $0.10
Flop: A♠: 5♣: 9♥: ($0.51, 3 players)

UTG+1 checks, Hero checks, BTN checks

Turn: T♠: ($0.51, 3)
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $0.24, BTN calls $0.24, UTG+1 folds River: K♠: ($0.99, 2)

Hero bets $0.48, BTN goes all-in $1.01, Hero calls $0.53

Final Pot: $3.01
Hero shows a straight, Ten to Ace
Q♥: J♣:
BTN shows a Royal Flush
J♠: Q♠:

BTN wins $2.90 (net +$1.49)

UTG+1 lost $0.16
Hero lost $1.41

i fold this pre. The rest is fine as played.

I think this is a fold pre, QJo is too weak, QJs would be fine to RFI here.

I was thinking the same irzuk. This is a very weak preflop play Casey.

I don’t really see why we bet the turn either.

Originally posted by yadijavadi
I was thinking the same irzuk. This is a very weak preflop play Casey.

I don’t really see why we bet the turn either.

Yes its not the best, I was just getting back into poker after being out for years, this is a month old also

Yeah, this is one of those “meh” hands. QJo isn’t a particularly deceptive hand here, nor is it a powerful hand. It’s just, “meh”.

If you try to play these hands your money will usually just end up as dead money and you’ll need to fold. If you do hit big, like you did here, you’ll often get owned by bigger hands.

Aim to miss the villains range preflop, or aim to own his range for value. Don’t even play these weak value hands or bad things will happen.