thin value shove ?

Maybe he could call with top pair, but most of the time he has a missed draw or something I guess. I don't think he would check often better hands on the river and is shoving not to bad I think.

Cheers,
SDK1987

Hello Reds,

It's not a clear spot imo, and I think it's very close without any reads on villain.
I'd check behind but value shoving there does not seem wrong to me. The mainly reason I'd check is because I don't believe we will get payed a lot with worse hands and in that case I prefer to see villains hand and take a note to know with which hands he does that move on the turn.

Cheers.

Originally posted by Torcato
Hello Reds,

It's not a clear spot imo, and I think it's very close without any reads on villain.
I'd check behind but value shoving there does not seem wrong to me. The mainly reason I'd check is because I don't believe we will get payed a lot with worse hands and in that case I prefer to see villains hand and take a note to know with which hands he does that move on the turn.

Cheers.

It's a hand i did end up taking a note on but checking for the soul intention of taking a note passed me by so that's a really good point.

SDK, you say that the villain won’t check the river with anything stronger than the hero, but answer me this: What hands are we representing on the river?

In regards to the villains range:

That turn raise looks nutsy as fuck. You think he has lots of draws but I’m not so sure...

The J of hearts being on the board takes a lot of the heart draws from his range. You’d expect him to raise the flop often if he had hearts too. And so that leaves nearly no heart flushes in his range.

The turn card brought some more straight draws but would TQ really call the flop bet? Perhaps. Would he then raise the turn with QT after we barrel? Unlikely. It’s very unlikely that this dude will make two dubious plays with a straight draw. And so we can take most of them out too.

He could have floated the flop with two diamonds but again, with the Ace and 9 on the board he can’t have many of these hands in his range. It’s quite possible that QT of diamonds floated the flop, but it still doesn’t make much sense to raise this hand on the turn.

His raise on the turn is pretty small too, this, again, takes many of the draws from his range. I’m almost certain this guy doesn’t have a draw.

Now onto the value hands in his range:

If this guy had a AQ or AK you’d expect a raise preflop. If he had AT or below you wouldn't OFTEN expect him to raise on the turn. That basically leaves no likely single pair hands. The only real possibility I see is the AT that wants to take a little extra value off draws. This is a bit of a crazy play but it is BB vs Button on an A high board which makes crazy plays somewhat justified.

AJ and 44 often raise the flop. 99 usually folds on the flop.

There is only one hand in this guys range that makes perfect sense to raise on that turn: A9o. Draws don’t really make any sense but 44 still does. And so I think our best strategy is to fold to the turn raise.

Originally posted by yadijavadi
SDK, you say that the villain won’t check the river with anything stronger than the hero, but answer me this: What hands are we representing on the river?

In regards to the villains range:

That turn raise looks nutsy as fuck. You think he has lots of draws but I’m not so sure...

The J of hearts being on the board takes a lot of the heart draws from his range. You’d expect him to raise the flop often if he had hearts too. And so that leaves nearly no heart flushes in his range.

The turn card brought some more straight draws but would TQ really call the flop bet? Perhaps. Would he then raise the turn with QT after we barrel? Unlikely. It’s very unlikely that this dude will make two dubious plays with a straight draw. And so we can take most of them out too.

He could have floated the flop with two diamonds but again, with the Ace and 9 on the board he can’t have many of these hands in his range. It’s quite possible that QT of diamonds floated the flop, but it still doesn’t make much sense to raise this hand on the turn.

His raise on the turn is pretty small too, this, again, takes many of the draws from his range. I’m pretty sure this guy doesn’t have a draw.

Now onto the value hands in his range.

If this guy had a AQ or AK you’d expect a raise preflop. If he had AT or below you wouldn't OFTEN expect him to raise on the turn. That basically leaves no likely single pair hands. The only real possibility I see is the AT that wants to take a little extra value off draws. This is a bit of a crazy play but it is BB vs Button on an A high board which makes crazy plays somewhat justified.

AJ and 44 often raise the flop. 99 usually folds on the flop.

There is only one hand in this guys range that makes perfect sense to raise on that turn: A9o. And so I think our best strategy is to fold to the turn raise.

Thanks for the reply just a few things to consider firstly you need to be a little bit careful raising draws on Ace high flops.Because AJx hits my mp range very well so if you get shoved on it leaves you in a very awkward spot having to fold a lot of equity.The other thing is A9o even in a bb defending range vs an mp raise ? it's possible but it would be quite a loose defend for this spot.

You were on the button, so you don’t often have AJ and A9 does defend to this small open.

This dude almost always has a value hand. It’s only AT that we beat and we lose to all the rest of his value hands with A9 being most likely.

This is a fold on the turn.

Me misreading my own hand history i should of got more sleep. i don't think we can fold 2 pair on the turn though blocking 44 , JJ should 3bet pre and i think villain could have some draws and a value hand like J9 on the turn.Appreciate the feed back though it's all food for thought.

Usually when villain x-r turn he has A9, J9 or some sort of combo draw like e.g. Q♦:T♦:. or K♦:Q♦: AA or JJ should 3bet preflop and same for AQ+. AJ could go preflop either way but usually x-r flop especially as its BUvsBB with wide ranges. 44 should always x-r flop. 99 might 3bet preflop sometimes but probably folding flop. Also Its NL5 so really its not absurd to assume sometimes villain having some weird overplayed Ax single pair. Without decent sample on villain or if he is fishy I would always keep some space for "weirdo factor".

Anyway on river I would be checking back. You need to beat more than 50% of his x-call range so even though I think we are quite often good here on river versus his check it doesnt mean value shove would be +EV.

Villain turn size is fine whatever its for bluff or value as it creates SPR 1 for river.

You still left those draw combos in there but they would raise bigger on the turn, if at all.

Fold to the turn raise, save yourself some money.

So he had 44 then?

He didn’t have a draw...

Originally posted by yadijavadi
So he had 44 then?

He didn’t have a draw...

Why would villain check a set on the river ?

I’m not gonna say it because it’ll cause you all to suffer from cognitive dissonance and then you’ll all give me a load of shit.

Solve this and you’ll find your answer... What range are we representing on the river?

I thought the shove was a little to thin and i didn't like the idea of value betting smaller so i checked and villain had Kh9h.

We are losing to A9,AJ and sets,

I think AA,JJ are 3 betting preflop
99 probrably folding flop.

Maybe villain check raise with Jxdd like JTdd,J4dd, QTdd,KJdd, Axhh, QThh,

KQs of diamonds or hearts has gutshot + FD.

are losing to A9,AJ and 44, and 99 if they somehow called flop

We can bet for value on the river an get called by J9,J4, Maybe KJ and single paired aces , aces with heart draws may have check raised

We will get called by and lose to A9,AJ,44 but are any of those checking the river? I don’t think we rep a broken draw when we call villains check-raise if that’s what you meant why he’s checking to induce bluff. AJ would sometimes raise preflop I would think and 44 would probrably bet river but maybe not? I see more than half of his check calling range losing on the river here. He also has a bunch of broken draws he could’ve been check raising with but some of those can have pairs . Maybe value bet and fold to a raise is best imo. Maybe half pot on the river ?

K9s!! Urrrgh, ok ok, so the villain sucks lol... Ghaleon wins the day for mentioning the “weirdo factor”.

You still didn’t answer my question. You wanted to know why the villain might check the river with a set. To find out, you gonna give yourself a perceived range??

Took me long time make that post when I entered it and refreshed u guys had answers before me lol, didn’t see the k9 til now, that villain was troll

He was, the reasonable vpip numbers threw me off and so I gave him too much credit... I should have known to be fair. This is 5nl. You need a very good reason to fold a strong 2p in such low stakes games.

Btw Galeon, his SPR was not quite 1, but regardless of that, he’s giving us 4-1 on the call for the turn!! This raise is way too small for a draw.

... bloody kicking myself. I did think that if he had the nuts on the turn he would have paid more attention to his raise sizing.