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Fold a full house?

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Really not sure what to make about this one,thanks in advance for your thoughts.

villain unknown 50 vpip but only 6 hands.

SB: $11.36 (227.2 bb)
BB: $5.00 (100 bb)
UTG: $7.08 (141.6 bb)
MP: $5.07 (101.4 bb)
Hero (CO): $5.02 (100.4 bb)
BTN: $5.00 (100 bb)

SB posts $0.02, BB posts $0.05

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.07) Hero has 5 5
2 folds, Hero raises to $0.15, BTN raises to $0.44, fold, BB calls $0.39, Hero calls $0.29

Flop: ($1.34, 3 players) 3 T 3
BB checks, Hero checks, BTN checks

Turn: ($1.34, 3 players) T
BB bets $0.68, Hero calls $0.68, fold

River: ($2.70, 2 players) 5
BB bets $3.00, Hero ?


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20 replies
Super Moderator
VorpalF2F
Joined: 02.09.2010

double paired boards are scary, esp when you don't have the highest FH

But perhaps we need to back up to the turn.
What do people think of the call there with only 2nd pair on a paired board?

I'm curious...


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Moderator
SDK1987
Joined: 12.11.2008

Turn call is already tricky multi way with 2 outs and a decent change you are drawing dead. The river is the best card you can hit. That makes it tough to fold. Otherwise you shouldn't call the turn if you think you are beat now. Off course the change he has a T is decent and is folding river still better than calling, but in the end I would fold the turn for sure.

Cheers,
SDK1987


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zetozinho
Joined: 18.06.2017

Calling preflop for set mining is ok. Better do it with 22-55 rather than 77-TT or so because you don't block so much suited-connectors and stuff on both BTN and BB ranges.
I'm not sure if donk/folding OTF is not a decent option, but checking is ok too.
Turn call tricky indeed. You can't really improve and having BTN still to act is nasty.
I wouldn't fold OTR as played. Doesn't make sense to call OTT and fold OTR when you improve to beat flushes and 3x fulls (that only BB can have).


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My intention wans't to call river bets but were ip and i thought villain could be betting a good chunk of Ax on the turn.And we get to check back for showdown on the river quite often but maybe i'm wrong about that.But ye with the btn still to act i guess finding a fold here is probably a pretty good option.


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yadijavadi
Joined: 31.01.2018

Definitely not folding. He could do this with air and he has a lot more air in his range than Tx.

Call and write the notes.

“Attacks checked flops with air... fires two barrels”
“Attacks low dbl paired board with air”
“Pot river bluff”


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Originally posted by yadijavadi
Definitely not folding. He could do this with air and he has a lot more air in his range than Tx.

Call and write the notes.

“Attacks checked flops with air... fires two barrels”
“Attacks low dbl paired board with air”
“Pot river bluff”

Thanks,my notes definitely need working on.


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arthurbentley
Joined: 12.10.2010

Is calling 3/bets with 55 at 1/15 implied odds a good call? You have 2-1 pot odds also but I don't like the call.

I never call 3/bets with small pairs with such low implied odds. I will fold 80% of the time and 4/bet bluff if the 3/better is a solid player and is a bit of a 3/bet monkey.

The Villain could have anything. He could check the flop pot controlling 88/99. He could also have A 10 suited if he's the type to 3/bet light. Pocket tens and flopped quads. Or two pair on turn, AAKKQQ/1010 and then decided his hand was good after you checked the flop.

I am calling the river after calling the turn and improving. If he wins at least you can then update your notes on the player.

He's never checking the river after you showed weakness on the flop. He knows you don't have a 10. So if you call the turn and fill up, you have no choice but to call.

I think you took your baby pair too far. Starting preflop, and the turn.


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yadijavadi
Joined: 31.01.2018

The implied odds on that preflop call are like the legs of Margot Robbie, nobody ever looks at them because they are attached to the roundest, pertiest bu....

The odds we’re getting on the call preflop is 3.5 - 1.... And we’re hitting a set 1 in 7 times!!

We don’t even need to look at the implied odds to know that they are sexy as f***


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arthurbentley
Joined: 12.10.2010

Originally posted by yadijavadi
The implied odds on that preflop call are like the legs of Margot Robbie, nobody ever notices them because they are attached to the roundest, pertiest bu....

The odds we’re getting on the call preflop is 3.5 - 1.... And we’re hitting a set 1 in 7 times!!

We don’t even need to look at the implied odds to know that they are sexy as f***

Hit a set 1 in 8 times. It's unprofitable to call with implied odds of less than 20.


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yadijavadi
Joined: 31.01.2018

Sorry, I meant 7-1 ... The 20x number you read is a GTO number making your statement nonsense... Dont believe everything you read.


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arthurbentley
Joined: 12.10.2010

Originally posted by yadijavadi
Sorry, I meant 7-1 ... The 20x number you read is a GTO number making your statement nonsense... Dont believe everything you read.

Put up your stats from your database. Filter 3/bet pots, baby pairs 22-77, effective 100bb stacks, and show any profit if you can. :f_thumbsup:

I learned about call 20 on Pokerstrategy 8 years ago before anyone heard of GTO.


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ghaleon
Joined: 17.10.2007

Preflop call is fine especially with 3way pot as your implied for set mine improve. Its lot closer with BB folding imo as 55 has very little postflop playability and BU range can be fairly wide. Meaning even if you hit set implied odds are not going to be as good than versus tighter range.

I would not have donk bet range on flop as we really dont have that many strong hands. So hero checking should not remove any Tx from his range. Most likely player to hold 3x here is BU that can go for light 3bet with hand like A3s. BB should never have one.

Would fold turn as you have no good rivers really and BB is leading in 3way pot. When BB bet pot on river he is not repping 3x or flush, Its Tx or air if villain happens to have brain activity which is unknown. Any overpair would be better call on river probably as it would block some Tx combos. People are probably overplaying those broadway hands preflop so I would not be surprised to see some QT etc. But yeah if I made turn call I would likely call river and hope for best.


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yadijavadi
Joined: 31.01.2018

Originally posted by arthurbentley

Originally posted by yadijavadi
Sorry, I meant 7-1 ... The 20x number you read is a GTO number making your statement nonsense... Dont believe everything you read.

Put up your stats from your database. Filter 3/bet pots, baby pairs 22-77, effective 100bb stacks, and show any profit if you can. :f_thumbsup:

I learned about call 20 on Pokerstrategy 8 years ago before anyone heard of GTO.

Lol I was talking the other day about when that number changed. I was taught 12x in a poker school back in 2010. I think my teachers were behind the times because by then 15x was the standard.

I suspect you have been misreading those stats on HM... HM shows the profit from the whole hand. When Calling a 3bet you are already around 3bbs down. Anything above that is your profit number.

I’ll try to remember to check that number next time I boot up my computer. I could call with as low as 8x effective lol, but I bet I make money.

I’m not sure my sample will be good enough though. I only have around 100k hands on my comp atm.


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arthurbentley
Joined: 12.10.2010

I am not misreading any stats simply because I don't use any third party poker software other than the free basic HUD which I discovered only a few weeks ago.

I would like to see stats of 3/bet pots while holding a baby pair when 100bb deep. To see if calling is worth my while in the future. The training videos I have watched say fold in this spot and occasionally 4/bet if the villain is 3/bet happy. According to the well known coach calling is the worse option.


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yadijavadi
Joined: 31.01.2018

Here you go, I did 22 - 99

The sample is from 120k hands I played in the micro-low stakes for a challenge. I called with these hands vs the 3bet a massive 75% of the time lol! 🤮🤮🤮

And yet it’s break even.

Ok so I’m not winning with these hands, but it is a small sample and I had been running like shit. B/E with a 75% call rate still clearly shatters the 20x theory though...

If you want to learn Poker you gotta understand something...

The human mind desperately attempts to grasp onto strategies that we teach it are correct. This is mankind’s ONLY mistake. When we find ourselves in situations, or are presented with evidence, that that challenges this trust it results in us experiencing cognitive dissonance. Our minds reject the evidence, we get angry. Plato spoke of this in his “allegory of the cave”. Buddha spoke about it when he spoke of grasping onto ideals. This CogD is what people in history named demonic. It’s only this that is stopping you from becoming a godlike strategist.

Some minds are more open to change than others. You may only feel a little resistance when accepting the clear evidence presented in this post that proves the 20x rule is complete nonsense. Other will be less open to changing their view. The reason they are less open isn’t because they are generally closed minded, it’s not just one of those things, instead, there is a specific thing that closes the mind:

The more trust a player holds onto for plays in a specific game, the more difficult it will be for them to surpass any of that trust for that game. This is consistent throughout all games. I can prove it happens to poker players, but all poker experts trust in many strategies and so their demons work hard to silence me.

The Poker world is grasping onto a very, very dark strategy called GTO. Most experienced players will use all the power in their means to convince you to use GTO and not exploitation. These people are not usually consciously aware of what they are doing. Their inner demons are tricking them into promoting the GTO style.

Anytime you read any book, or any article from anyone in that says “it’s correct to... 3bet 12% of the time... call 35% of cbets... play 21vpip...” If anyone ever gives you any strategy that they claim to be correct, right or optimal, you can be confident that the only reason they are promoting the strategy as such is because they are suffering from cognitive dissonance.

The minds of experienced players are naturally corrupted, so treat their lessons tentatively because the wrong knowledge will hinder your strategic ability.

FWIW... In life, I’m starting to become pretty sure that GTO is the “middle way” described by Buddha as the perfect strategy. In Poker we are using our minds to exploit others and so GTO is dark relative to our goals. In life, it’s only the deceptive who try to exploit. Without deception the rules all seem to flip around making GTO great.

And so I don’t think GTO is dark after all. It’s just another trick of the Devil. The real problem is only the trust we place in strategies.


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Moderator
SDK1987
Joined: 12.11.2008

That picture looks better. Try to discuss only about this hand.

Cheers,
SDK1987


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yadijavadi
Joined: 31.01.2018

It was a call 3bet with 44... Arthur said he’d follow the 20x rule... I showed clear evidence that the 20x rule wasn’t true, I then explained why strategies like this are all untrue.

There was nothing wrong with my post SDK... That anger you’re feeling is not my fault... Have mercy.


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Casey55
Joined: 19.07.2010

Originally posted by arthurbentley
Is calling 3/bets with 55 at 1/15 implied odds a good call? You have 2-1 pot odds also but I don't like the call.

I never call 3/bets with small pairs with such low implied odds. I will fold 80% of the time and 4/bet bluff if the 3/better is a solid player and is a bit of a 3/bet monkey.

I think you took your baby pair too far. Starting preflop, and the turn.

Profit = (% of the time you make a set) X (amount won with a set) - (% of the time you won't flop a set) X (amount lost when you don't flop a set)

You can use this formula when determining if you should call pre-flop or not with PP looking to set-mine, Effective stack sizes are very important, the effective stack size is always the smallest stack in the hand.

whatever the answer is from this equation is how many BB you will win on average in the long run which is the most important factor.


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The 20x rule i believe refers to pure set mines and hands like 99 are clearly not pure set mines.Take out say 77-99 and i think you will see a significant drop off.When you start getting down to hands that rely more on pure set mine value to continue postflop.

The over call from the bb does give me increased implied odds here which is why i called.If the bb doesn't over call i think we should probably find a fold with 55 oop co vs btn preflop.Whether or not 20x is correct i think i remember it used to be 15x years ago.


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