[Closed] nl200 FR good bluff?

I would strongly recommend that you fold the flop.

This guy has a 10% openraising- range overall and opens UTG+1.
Then he bets into 4 opponents.
You expect him to have {QQ+,AK} here.
You are not last to act.

That are 4 reasons to fold the flop.

Of course your point that he can't call you down with AA/KK makes sense, but in general i think it is a very bad idea to try to move people off of TPTK or even an overpair since these people constantly make (theoretical) mistakes - it just happens that these mistakes are the perfect play against your hand in this spot.
Whether he should call you down with KK+ or not doesn't matter at all - it just matters if he does (or not).

Furthermore if you look at the combinations of hands he got 3 combinations of QQ, 6 combinations of KK and again 3 combinations of AA since you have one ace.
So if he folds 25% of the time if he is able to fold an overpair in this spot.

Let's look at the amont you bet now:
You can't expect him to ever c/f the turn with KK or AA, so you are prepared to fire 2 barrels (so you are all in by the river):
You risk $29 + $60 + $143.45 = ~$230 (your bets at flop, turn and river) to win $42 + $29 + $60 = $131 (the pot on the flop + your opponents bets on flop and turn) 75% of the time. $230 * 0.75 = $172.5 (this the amount you need to win on average to break even).

So you lose $31.5 every time you make this move.

Of course your opponent might make a move like donking the river with QQ so you'd fold and lose less vs his set, but he will also call you down with his AA sometimes.

What do tribun and twicet whink? Is it really that pointless bluff? I especially chose this situation because this guy's wtsd is small, like 23 and i kind of think when i choose the situations carefully this is a good move, but i want to know what others think?

i like the play to some point, but: if u re an agro plr u can just sligtly more than minr such pots ip a lot.. they just at most call with overpairs after longer thinking and u can take it down on turn already with another barell and its less expensive.. also shows more strgth bcs 1 other person still in the pot.

u d be given much less respect when also doing this with your monsters then, which is also very good and everybody will just fear u oop, so will play really tight and expectadly which is the most exploitable.

i like this line also, but it has higher risk, of investing full BI into it, where he might call with KK,AA due to good odds and knowing that the board is floatable, depends on how much of a thinking plr he is and what reads u have. but generally a float here is very good imo. /u also have some backdoors, so u can still win legitiemelly and gain some crazy image for the session

this is the funny part of playing fr: people fold a lot, especially such a (little passive) thinking reg

as played i think its more a betsizing problem. if u decide to float in such a multiway spot with even 1 player behind, utg might put u on a strong Q or a monster that slowplays this dry board, sometimes 97.
the pot on the river after your shove is 329 and he has to pay his rest of 109. he gets 3:1 and needs 25% eq. if he has AA its rly tough to fold here since he doesnt need to be ahead often. if u play vs a station like me, i call getting 3:1 w/ an overpair
if i decide to float here, i might bet 38 - 47 on the turn and shove the river. that way he will always call the turn and you generate way more fe with your river shove because he didnt invest half his stack into a rly big pot by the river. its much easier to fold for him. ofc, this betsizing is not balanced cuz we want to bet 50-60 with our monsters in order to have a smaller pot on the river where a shove will get more calls.

my conclusion: if u float (which is reasonable in general and u even have nice backdoors :f_biggrin:) a smaller turn bet and then a river shove is better. however, since his utg range is that strong with his stats and after cbetting in such a bigh field, u rly need to know that he is capable of folding KK, AA to your monster line. if u think thats likely, then go for it.

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whats your plan if he bet the turn? u can rep rly a lot. if he bets, u could easily shove and get him to fold every 1 pair hand, but the problem is he may just bet sets on the turn again?
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what do u think about raising the flop small to rep a monster. if he then calls KK, AA i might bet the turn small and shove the river or just shove the turn. it depends on the stacksizes. i think w/ 100bb, we have to ship the turn for max fe since the stack/pot ratio on the river would otherwise be rly bad and he has to call everything on the river

♠_thumbsup:

well, ya, we re not deeper, sorry not noticed too much, so y, betsizing essential more than anything else.. i still prefer r on flop and shoving in turn tho, bcs it just shoves that much more strength and dividing into turn and river with just flop call gets dangerous for the reason mentioned.. i think a reasonable plr will actually call KK,AA here very very often.

As Twicet said it's a stack size problem and therefore this bluff will not work all that often.
Second: I don't really like the whole idea of complete bluffing here. People are often simply not good enough to fold AA. I want to have some outs to float and complete bluff.

Best regards,
TribunCaesar