[Closed] Anybody know the odds?

As a statistics student, I feel the need to point out several flaws with this whole OMG odds thing. Your situations are so specific that of COURSE the odds are going to be ridiculous. I could get dealt 10 random hands - ie: 9T, 38, etc. and the odds of those hands occurring, irregardless of order would still be astronomical.

And just so you know, the # of combinations aren't THAT different.

# of possibilities for 2 different cards = 16
# of possibilities for a pocket pair = 6

But I mean, you need to look at it this way. The odds of getting dealt JJ or higher is approximately 1/55. The odds of getting 4 hands like that in a span of 5 is 1/55 * 1/55 * 1/55 * 1/55 * 54/55 = 0.000000107

*EDITED TO MAKE THIS MORE CORRECT*

This probability is part of what's called a binomial distribution. To get the correct estimate for any order, you need to multiply this number by '5 choose 4' (5c4), = 5

This gives you roughly a probability of 1 in 1869158.

Originally posted by MisterHomes
As a statistics student, I feel the need to point out several flaws with this whole OMG odds thing. Your situations are so specific that of COURSE the odds are going to be ridiculous. I could get dealt 10 random hands - ie: 9T, 38, etc. and the odds of those hands occurring, irregardless of order would still be astronomical.

That's what I tried to point out in an earlier post with a little sarcasm.

I noticed that, I just tried to shed a little light on the situation

Originally posted by luitzen
How come you're playing NL100 and you're still silver and how come you're playing NL100 and don't know how to calculate this yourself? Really, it's very simple maths.

ill grab this one because its the first one i saw scrolling up critisizing my BRM

im not playing at these limits with starter $50

I deposited $1500 of my cash at absolute worked it to 2k and dabbled in NL100 and NL 50 both werever the games were softest

I play alot of different limits at alot of different rooms some i play Nl4 because thats what my bank allows there

NL100 is highest i play and at absolute i am around $2900

Cake i play Nl4 and NL 10

My cake and full tilt accounts are tracked here thats why im still silver well gold soon

as far as it being simple maths i was haveing a toough time wraping my head around this as i have some troubles with probabilitys however i would venture to guess i am above par with most other math functions

thanks for your input

Originally posted by MisterHomes
And just so you know, the # of combinations aren't THAT different.

# of possibilities for 2 different cards = 16
# of possibilities for a pocket pair = 6

Actually from a poker player's perspective, for hand reading purposes, IMO that's a very big difference since it shows it's more then twice more likely for your opponnent to gealt different cards than a pocket pair.

Originally posted by MisterHomes
This probability is part of what's called a binomial distribution. To get the correct estimate for any order, you need to multiply this number by '5 choose 4' (5c4), = 5

Can't we just keep it simple?