PokerStars - 15/30 NL (2 max) - Holdem - 2 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4
Hero (SB): 17.67 BB
BB: 15.67 BB
Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has A♥ K♠
Hero raises to 2 BB, BB calls 1 BB
Flop: (4 BB, 2 players) 8♠ K♦ 5♦
BB bets 1 BB, Hero raises to 3 BB, BB calls 2 BB
Turn: (10 BB, 2 players) A♦
BB checks, Hero bets 4 BB, BB calls 4 BB
River: (18 BB, 2 players) 7♣
BB checks, Hero checks
Spoiler
BB shows 6♠ 8♥ (One Pair, Eights)
(Pre 36%, Flop 22%, Turn 5%)
Hero shows A♥ K♠ (Two Pair, Aces and Kings)
(Pre 64%, Flop 78%, Turn 95%)
Hero wins 18 BB
Let's say that his flop donking range is pair heavy: most likely 8x, some Kx and some 5x as well.
After calling my raise, I expect some 5x to fold and pretty much all of 8x and Kx are calling (altough I block some TP combos).
Usually they don't bluff very often with this line (my assumption again, could be wrong) and I rarely see draws in their donking range (when we make it all the way to the showdown).
Therefore I still think, that we might be good majority of the time (like 80-90 % approximately?) - again, just guesstimating, like usual. 8x should call smaller sizing again and Kx is definitely calling. If he still has some 5x hands in his range, he will fold almost all of them, unless he is a calling station.
And river gets really interesting. There is t540 in the middle and effective stack is t200.
And I am not sure whether river is too thin of a bet or not. Because when villain donks, his range is not clearly defined. I mean, I am trying to figure it out, but there are some guys who open shove over pair in the first hand right on the flop no matter what. Then some guys donk bet using pot size with air. And it is really hard to get a sample on this scenario, as I rarely make it to showdown.
What do you think?
Thank you.
Axif
