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mild stack strategy 9 max fold turn ? scare card on turn

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SkillfulAlex
Joined: 28.04.2012

PokerStars - $0.02 NL - Holdem - 8 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

MP: 107 BB
MP+1: 100 BB
CO: 103 BB
BTN: 134.5 BB
SB: 157 BB
BB: 159.5 BB
UTG: 130.5 BB
Hero (UTG+1): 34 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has T♣ T♥

fold, Hero raises to 3 BB, fold, fold, CO calls 3 BB, fold, SB calls 2.5 BB, fold

Flop: (10 BB, 3 players) 7♠ 4♣ 5♣
SB checks, Hero bets 7 BB, CO calls 7 BB, SB calls 7 BB

Turn: (31 BB, 3 players) K♥
SB checks, Hero checks, CO bets 17 BB, fold, Hero raises to 24 BB and is all-in, CO calls 7 BB

River: (79 BB, 2 players) A♥

Hero shows T♣ T♥ (One Pair, Tens)
(Pre 54%, Flop 48%, Turn 5%)
CO shows Q♣ K♣ (One Pair, Kings)
(Pre 46%, Flop 52%, Turn 95%)
CO wins 76 BB

flop: bet for value

turn: i think the check is bad, i'm commited i think i do push turn maybe some f draw and midle pair call me

i'm thinking process is good or i'm worng ?


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VorpalF2F
Joined: 02.09.2010

you have only 11BB in the pot OTT, so a fold should be OK.
Even if you bet out on the turn, what do you do if CO puts you all in?

These are tough spots even playing 100BB.

Sometimes you just have to let 'em go...


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SkillfulAlex
Joined: 28.04.2012

But if i push first in turn maybe some draw and midle pair call me what do you think? Thank for your Time and conversation


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Pokamon
Joined: 15.04.2006

how much equity do you have vs a range of draws and Kx? how often do you win the pot uncontested?


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Swish29
Joined: 06.04.2009

As played, I would shove turn for the reasons you said - it's difficult to imagine that CO would run a bluff 3 way to try to get QQ- to fold, or a pair from SB. It's catastrophic to let SB have a free card with 87s/66/A3s type of hands so I am never checking here.

But I would consider shoving flop (I know it's probably not what the "articles" say), it's "only" 3x the pot, and there are quite a few bad cards turn: any 8 or 3 gives 6x a straight, meaning you can't get the stack of SB if he has A7 for instance, a 6 gives 8x/3x a straight, a 2 gives A3s a straight (not the thing I would worry about the most though, but it's def in SB's range), then J through A is an overcard (although only the A is that bad) to your pair, 7/5 gives 76s/65s/7xcc trips so basically you are only happy when there's a non club 9, a 4 or a T turn, which are only 8 cards. Let's say we add the K/Q/J/2 that are not of clubs, and your hand is fine (if you are fine with overcards that is, which is apparently not the case) with 20 turns, which is quite low.

When you bet, you have to check/fold 27 out of 47 turns (suppose villain bets at least 50% like he did here), sometimes there's a 6 turn and you miss a massive amount of value vs A7/99 because these hands won't put more money in the pot, or you can fold the best hand if villain bluffs a busted flush draw etc. so in order to fully realize your equity, and given that many turns make it obnoxious for your range to put more money in the pot, I am shoving. If I don't shove, I check flop, because I don't want to increase the pot size with a hand that's unplayable most of the time on the turn (but if you go all-in, unplayability is irrelevant), not to mention that even when there's a "good" turn like a K/Q/J it can scare 88/99/87s etc and although you are happy to see these cards (happy as in it's one of the best turns you could hope for overall), it makes you lose value vs made hands that would have called flop.


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Tomaloc
Joined: 17.01.2011

your stack-to-pot ratio is just really awkward here.
my first thought was also "jam flop", but i'm unsure on what calling range to give villains for calling 3x jam. if you're being called mainly by sets (and villains can have pretty much all of them) then it's pretty bad, and i'd guess that it's a decent portion of villains ranges.
if they're wide preflop, even if you're some underdog when called, then there's a lot of value in the times that you take down the pot right there. could be fine.

i feel that i like check/evaluate flop, as played probably jam turn yourself.
your line doesn't make a lot of sense, since villain's betting range should be pretty strong (definitely stronger than the range that's going to call your jam).
both villains just call flop, which caps them a little bit, and you might win against 66/88/99/86/65. it's unlikely that they hit the K unless it's with a club flushdraw.


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