NL100 or I quit poker

Originally posted by VorpalF2F
I hear so often in the forums that "I can't beat zoom" yet you seem to be doing OK -- well done.
Any idea regarding the NL 10?
You seemed to be doing fine for the first 1200 hands or so

It's a mix of running bad in AI-ev, playing bad, getting it in with low equity after villains made a terrible call and 4-outed me etc. I had an EVbb/100 of 16 at NL2 and now 10 at NL5 so I don't think I would be suddenly a loser at NL10

I hope the next shot will get better, I'm getting a bit tired of playing NL5

Originally posted by Swish29
I hope the next shot will get better, I'm getting a bit tired of playing NL5

It is tough to play your A-Game when it starts to get boring.
When I played exclusively hold'em I did OK up to NL 10, but failed every NL 25 shot I took.
Playing NL 10 day after day stopped being fun, so I branched out and started playing all the other variants.
Now 8 or so years later I'm trying to get back into hold'em, but I'm just making it at NL 5

But it is a challenge again...

Looks like this month's theme is "wasting time at NL5"

This is the graph since yesterday included, I was 5BI away from shoting NL10 again and this shit happens:

Mentally challenged regulars are running extremely hot vs me and I find it quite irritating. I will have a small break and go back at it because I am super close to getting the Bronze level chest on PS, and I thought that as long as I would win one chest every 28 days my level would eventually go up but that's not the case, I need to win 10 chests in 28 days, and if I don't win 1 chest within 28 days I go down in rewards, now I am at 8.5 chest and I have a bit of time these days so I should go for it.

PokerStars - $0.05 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 100 BB
SB: 406.4 BB
Hero (BB): 164.6 BB
UTG: 154.6 BB
MP: 100 BB
CO: 66.2 BB

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has A♣ A♠

fold, fold, CO raises to 2 BB, BTN raises to 8 BB, fold, Hero raises to 22.4 BB, fold, BTN calls 14.4 BB

Flop: (47.2 BB, 2 players) 8♦ 8♠ T♠
Hero bets 12.4 BB, BTN raises to 33.4 BB, Hero calls 21 BB

Turn: (114 BB, 2 players) 2♠
Hero checks, BTN bets 44.2 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 44.2 BB

River: (202.4 BB, 2 players) 4♣

Hero shows A♣ A♠ (Two Pair, Aces and Eights)
(Pre 78%, Flop 13%, Turn 23%)
BTN shows 8♣ 7♣ (Three of a Kind, Eights)
(Pre 22%, Flop 87%, Turn 77%)
BTN wins 194 BB
Rake paid 8.4 BB

Edit: It looks like I've spewed some buy-ins in the last 400 hands but that is not the case, my 10 biggest pot lost in the last 400 hands are:
1) QQ vs AA
2) The hand above
3) KK vs AK
4) I bet folded a set river on 4 straight board (95437), villain cbets, xc, and xr so I think he has 66 100%
5) Missed draw vs strong range in 3bet pot
6) TPTK in 3bet pot vs set (and I lose only 2 barrels)
7) Missed draw vs strong range in 3bet pot
8) KK vs AQ on QxxxA, villain xr flop, bets turn and checks river
9) AK I 3bet, cbet and xf turn
10) Missed flop in squeezed pot with SC IP 3way

Biggest pot won is only 15bb

Edit 2: Pretty curious about the 87s, I wonder if the call preflop is bad, but I think the flop raise with a massive range disadvantage is obnoxious

Agreed.
If CO had not open-min-raised, the call with 87s from BTN vs BB 3Bet seems standard.

.

Well 88 for sure -- and LAGs will play suited connectors as I mentioned.

Is there any merit in such a situation to making the 4Bet larger?
You basically turn your hand face-up if you do, and the end result is the same anyway...

Tough hand!

Originally posted by VorpalF2F
Is there any merit in such a situation to making the 4Bet larger?
You basically turn your hand face-up if you do, and the end result is the same anyway...

Well at the end of the day I want him to make this call preflop, if I find a sizing where he folds it's not ideal. I think I 4bet OOP quite large already (x2.8), when you 4bet you need to look like you may fold over a 5bet shove otherwise you won't really face 5bet bluffs from a reg that understands pot odds. In this case I could do x3.5 without looking committed vs villain but then it would a) look very strong and b) I would commit myself vs CO who still has an uncapped range the moment I cold 4bet (not committed with my sizing because of rake I guess, but it's close).

Also I forgot to mention that 3betting a fish with 8 high while being 66bb deep is never something I would do.

I recovered the losses after my last graph ♦

I made some fish and chips at home as well (cool story bro):

For the fries, I did it in the oven following this recipe:

Basically, you need to boil the potatoes with baking soda before roasting them, the baking soda will react chemically with the pectin of the potatoes and break down the surface, meaning there will be more surface that will roast when you bake it since it won't be as smooth as when you peel or cut them

Nice graph -- and I'll try the roasted potato recipe, although I'm a bit surprised you need to boil them so long.

Here's the NL5 graph since I restarted:

Had 250$ again, got destroyed at NL10, lost 27$ in 265 hands. Initially I thought I would do a 2BI stop loss but f*ck that, I don't want to play NL5 anymore and waste my time there. I think it's safe no assume that no one in the history of poker 10bb/100'd one stake to lose at the next one so I'll just play NL10 without any stop loss, if I bust my roll, I will deposit, anyway net depositors get more RB on PokerStars ♦

Playing NL10 will mean the next level of rewards will be easier to reach and also I will play with antes, it's better to study the game with antes than without for now because there are antes at NL16 and NL25 as well, and if PokerStars thinks this is a good idea to implement at higher stakes (and they probably will do it since it's more rake for them), it will be at NL50 and above as well.

Originally posted by Swish29 I think it's safe no assume that no one in the history of poker 10bb/100'd one stake to lose at the next one so I'll just play NL10 without any stop loss, if I bust my roll, I will deposit, anyway net depositors get more RB on PokerStars ♦

I did exactly that a couple of times trying to go from NL 10 to NL 25 on PartyPoker way back when.
I think there is an adjustment required -- and it is mostly mental.
I never actually managed to continue at NL 25.
Then I switched to other variants, and more-or-less lost any edge I ever had even at NL 10

Your graph is looking good!

You'll eventually do this!

Cheers,
VS

Originally posted by Swish29
OK, he has 10 pages of videos though, what should I start with in your opinion?

Red line rampage imo

Originally posted by Laci24

Originally posted by Swish29
OK, he has 10 pages of videos though, what should I start with in your opinion?

Red line rampage imo

Yeah maybe I will take a look one day but if you play vs. calling stations you will have a red line that goes down and the Zoom pool is full of them. In the 75k hands since I started playing I lost 9500bb at NSD, but won almost twice that in EV at SD.

After my last post I took a small break and had my best session since the start of this blog, bankroll is 300.50$ after today:

I made quite a hero call:

PokerStars - $0.10 Ante $0.01 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 187.8 BB
SB: 150.8 BB
BB: 145.5 BB
Hero (UTG): 396.7 BB
MP: 124.3 BB
CO: 219.5 BB

6 players post ante of 0.1 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.1 BB) Hero has J♣ A♥

Hero raises to 2.5 BB, fold, CO calls 2.5 BB, BTN raises to 10.1 BB, fold, fold, Hero raises to 28.3 BB, fold, BTN calls 18.2 BB

Flop: (61.2 BB, 2 players) Q♦ 2♠ J♦
Hero checks, BTN bets 29 BB, Hero calls 29 BB

Turn: (119.2 BB, 2 players) 7♥
Hero checks, BTN checks

River: (119.2 BB, 2 players) 7♦
Hero checks, BTN bets 130.4 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 130.4 BB

BTN shows 4♦ 4♠ (Two Pair, Sevens and Fours)
(Pre 54%, Flop 13%, Turn 5%)
Hero shows J♣ A♥ (Two Pair, Jacks and Sevens)
(Pre 46%, Flop 87%, Turn 95%)
Hero wins 365 BB
Rake paid 15 BB

The PokerStars reward system is annoying, I need to win 10 chests in 28 days to get one tier above, and I've been stuck on "9/10 Chests to upgrade" for a while, I guess because 28 days ago I earned a chest and it does not count anymore, but it's ridiculous that I cannot know when. So tomorrow I will again try to win these 2850 points and I hope it will be okay this time, because I go on holidays on Friday so I don't have a lot of time to get this damned chests

Originally posted by Swish29
The PokerStars reward system is annoying, I need to win 10 chests in 28 days to get one tier above, and I've been stuck on "9/10 Chests to upgrade" for a while, I guess because 28 days ago I earned a chest and it does not count anymore, but it's ridiculous that I cannot know when. So tomorrow I will again try to win these 2850 points and I hope it will be okay this time, because I go on holidays on Friday so I don't have a lot of time to get this damned chests

Oh man it sure is.
I have long since stopped even considering promotions in how or when I play.
One thing I've noticed recently is that all poker rooms have programs to promote "responsible gambling" -- but all have promotions that encourage and reward excessive play.

333 today yes no cu

It's time for the goal review;

Originally posted by Swish29
September 2020 goals:

-Reach Gold status
> Done
-Play 30k hands again. Although I played 30k this month, in September it will be much more challenging because I will be away from my place 2 weekends
> Done, 48k hands. I had more time than expected and my goal was not very high, nothing to brag about
-Figure out what is happening with people 3betting over x4 IP: do they know something I don't know? Are they terrible? Same for the people that overbet 4bet IP
> Done? I guess it's a mix of not wanting to see a flop, for wrong (can't play postflop/scared to miss a flop?) or good (rake?) reasons, thinking that everyone at NL<=5 is a station so they should do that, being worried to have a 4bet called and missing the flop, etc.
-Study the preflop power-up of w34z3l, it's a 1 year-old course, I have high hopes
> Not done. I watched some parts but not enough, and I am not convinced that I want to have cc ranges PF elsewhere than in the BB so I have been thinking of a linear 3bet/fold startegy, but I don't know yet how to come up with these ranges (any pointers?)
(optional) -Finish the Lemon36 video on antes if things go really well and I expect to shot NL10 w/ antes
> Done, would have liked to see the part about overlimping/cc'ing take into account the rake
(optional) -If I'm not happy with the preflop power-up course for SB/BB defense, find something else and study that
> Done, not because I was unsatisfied, but I did study other stuff

So that's for the goals I can control, for the goals for which I have less/no control I would like to:
-Make more $ in September (made 77.53$ in August)
> Done, graph says I made 228$. I lost 55$ in MTTs (-100% ROI), spent 50$ on a course and plan to buy Stars Helper (35$), still happy with this month
-Flop over 11.8% of sets (11.8% is how many times you get a set with a pocket pair on average)
> Done ♦ 12.25%

Here's the month:

I'll think about the October goals. I guess it'll be about finishing that other course I bought, come up with a linear 3bet/fold strategy, play 40k hands, don't spend more than Stars Helper for poker, shot NL16, stuff like that.

Since I started:

:f_confused::f_confused::f_confused:

Together with MTTs and CGs I played 90k hands since I started again, and in my HUD and report, I was using the stat "fold to 3bet".

My ft3bet BT is quite high, I thought because I open wide vs nits and thus fold when they 3bet me, at least that's the story I was telling myself. Then I started playing with filters in PT4, and noticed that when the pot was unopened, my ft3bet BT was sub 50% (it was at over 63% before, so clearly something was not working as I thought), then I realized that this stat I was using was taking into account postflop actions as well, so I put the ft3bet PF in my report - there was still something wrong. What I should have used this whole time is "fold to pf 3bet after raise", and suddenly this drops at 39% for all positions, whereas before it was 66%.

As a consequence, I was quite sticky preflop because I thought that I was folding way too much ♦ but that was not really the case. I was also 3betting from the blinds vs BT because I thought BT had a much higher ftb3et than the reality...My ft3bet SB went from 87% to 61% when it's after a raise, which is fine for me because a) I open super wide and b) I'm OOP vs tight ranges (or tighter than they should be).

Other than this, I lose money in MP when EP open so clearly I must be doing something horrible. I also need to work on my BT game because my winrate is ~24bb/100 in EV, which is quite low given the WR I have in other pos except MP.

I guess I should also take a look at my Ft4b stat ♦

So to my goals in previous post I add these:

-Fix HUD with ft3b/4b
-Fix MP vs EP play (super vague - let's say I should have a > 0 WR when EP opens). Maybe I should simply 3bet or fold from this position to avoid paying rake + multiways, getting squeezed etc.
-Investigate reasons for low BT WR and fix as many as possible. I guess I could be losing money with the bottom of my opening range (I open 61% at NL10). Maybe I should open over 2.5x, after all giving villains less incentive to call is fine too: I'd pay no rake and collect 2.1bb PF. I probably have issues with cold calling and not 3betting enough. When I face a raise, my EV WR in BT is 10.19bb/100 and on the CO it's 24.80bb/100

At NL5, when I raise/called PF from the BT I was at -168bb/100, which is okay because raise/folding would have meant -240bb/100, but at NL10 it's not going that well (small sample though, but I guess regs are more aware of the things I do, and I could be losing money with the bottom of my r/c range instead of breaking even)

I was also considering implementing a SB limping strategy vs decent regs, folding is a shame with so much dead money in the pot, but on the other hand there's high rake and denying equity is nice so all things considered I have no idea what to do - given that I have bigger/certain leaks I should probably focus on these.

It's went so well at NL10 since my last shot that I already have the roll to play NL16 as per my BRM (440$), but I think I'll wait a bit, 3 weeks ago I was still playing NL5 after all, so playing 40-50$ pots might be too intense for now. I guess I'll just think about it more and prepare myself mentally, and I am likely going to try NL16 next weekend.

Almost done with FTGU, it's a good purchase. I guess I'll take a break from watching strategy content after this and instead play and study the areas I wrote above.

Originally posted by Swish29
It's went so well at NL10 since my last shot that I already have the roll to play NL16 as per my BRM (440$), but I think I'll wait a bit, 3 weeks ago I was still playing NL5 after all, so playing 40-50$ pots might be too intense for now. I guess I'll just think about it more and prepare myself mentally, and I am likely going to try NL16 next weekend.

Almost done with FTGU, it's a good purchase. I guess I'll take a break from watching strategy content after this and instead play and study the areas I wrote above.

I think I am being far too conservative with my BRM -- my BR on two sites is about the same, but I'm only playing NL 5.

Does FTGU mean "From the Ground Up"?
That was the name of the book I studied when getting my private pilot's licence -- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/From_the_Ground_Up_(book)
https://www.amazon.ca/Ground-Based-Original-Sandy-MacDonald/dp/0973003634/ref=sr_1_1?dchild=1&keywords=from+the+ground+up&qid=1602388990&sr=8-1

Originally posted by VorpalF2F

Originally posted by Swish29
It's went so well at NL10 since my last shot that I already have the roll to play NL16 as per my BRM (440$), but I think I'll wait a bit, 3 weeks ago I was still playing NL5 after all, so playing 40-50$ pots might be too intense for now. I guess I'll just think about it more and prepare myself mentally, and I am likely going to try NL16 next weekend.

Almost done with FTGU, it's a good purchase. I guess I'll take a break from watching strategy content after this and instead play and study the areas I wrote above.

I think I am being far too conservative with my BRM -- my BR on two sites is about the same, but I'm only playing NL 5.

Does FTGU mean "From the Ground Up"?
That was the name of the book I studied when getting my private pilot's licence -- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/From_the_Ground_Up_(book)
https://www.amazon.ca/Ground-Based-Original-Sandy-MacDonald/dp/0973003634/ref=sr_1_1?dchild=1&keywords=from+the+ground+up&qid=1602388990&sr=8-1/blockquote >

FTGU means this indeed, and in this case I was referring to a course on RIO. Not only for 50$ you get the course - on top of that you also get 1 month of Essential membership.

About your conservative BRM - it's difficult for to me to advise you, but I can tell you what I would consider when moving up:

-Assuming you have a bankroll that's big enough to move up: was this bankroll built thanks to the stake below the one you are aiming to shot? For instance, if I have 15k$ on PS and it's because I won the Sunday Storm or because I grinded it at NL200z, it's different, in the first case, I'll continue playing my stakes, maybe get some coaching/buy trainings, and in the other one, I may consider playing NL500z (provided that I am ready to move down - 30BI isn't a lot for what is arguably the toughest games online). In your case, if you acquired this bankroll with mixed games/MTTs, it's another story than if you made at least 1/3 of it playing NL5
-Do I crush current stakes/do I have reasons to believe that I would be a winner at higher stakes? For me it's yes/yes, here's my graph since I re-started:

I would even have over 500$ if I hadn't played MTTs.

If you have a more modest winrate of let's say around 3bb/100 then it's not conservative to want to move up at 50BI. You could still move up, but should be ready to face brutal swings and move down if needed.

-And finally: do you really want to move up? For instance, Tomaloc, despite crushing NL25 and below for a very long time, does not want to, he explains why here and here. It's not wrong in itself to not want to move up despite meeting the 2 "requirements" I made up above. It's like if you play a video game casually/destroy your friends, sure you could work harder, play more and try to turn pro, but do you really want it? Same if you play an instrument, do you want to play at a professional level? You like listening to music, do you want to take it further and create an audiophile YouTube channel and do hardware reviews etc.?

You should not feel pressured to move up because I move up, our situations are likely different, hopefully this wall of text can make you feel comfortable with your decision, whether you want to stay at NL5 or move up at NL10

Thanks for the tips on moving up.
Very instructive.
Both of the Tomaloc links point to the same post, but I read his blog anyway, so no matter.

My PokerStars bankroll comes from 5-Card Draw, not NLHE. Oh -- and a couple of big MicroMillions finishes.
On the other sites, my bankrolls come from MTTs and PLO8 (mostly).
I'm just trying to get back into NLHE
Not doing all that well, tbh
So I'll stick w/ NL5 from the moment.
I do much better at NL 5 than NL 2 actually

Originally posted by VorpalF2F
Both of the Tomaloc links point to the same post, but I read his blog anyway, so no matter.

Thanks, it's fixed just in case someone else read this

Obviously, the day after I brag I run and play not so good:

A few annoying hands, here villain is a rec, it's not the first time he does that, I guess he just ran good:

PokerStars - $0.10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

MP: $14.50
CO: $12.30
BTN: $12.28
SB: $10.05
Hero (BB): $20.85
UTG: $10.15

SB posts SB $0.05, Hero posts BB $0.10

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.15) Hero has A♥ Q♠

fold, fold, CO raises to $0.30, fold, fold, Hero raises to $1.05, CO calls $0.75

Flop: ($2.15, 2 players) K♥ A♦ 4♣
Hero bets $0.68, CO calls $0.68

Turn: ($3.51, 2 players) 5♣
Hero bets $2.34, CO raises to $10.57 and is all-in, Hero calls $8.23

River: ($24.65, 2 players) T♥

CO cashed out $19.07 for a fee of $0.19

Hero shows A♥ Q♠ (One Pair, Aces)
(Pre 59%, Flop 76%, Turn 18%)
CO shows 5♥ 4♥ (Two Pair, Fives and Fours)
(Pre 41%, Flop 24%, Turn 82%)

Here villain is a mentally challenged reg, his sizing flop triggers me:

PokerStars - $0.10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

CO: $22.52
BTN: $19.14
SB: $19.97
Hero (BB): $10.15
UTG: $13.28

SB posts SB $0.05, Hero posts BB $0.10

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.15) Hero has K♥ K♦

fold, fold, BTN raises to $0.22, SB raises to $0.86, Hero raises to $2.15, fold, SB calls $1.29

Flop: ($4.52, 2 players) 2♠ 3♠ 6♠
SB checks, Hero bets $2.16, SB raises to $6.50, Hero raises to $8.00 and is all-in, SB calls $1.50

Turn: ($20.52, 2 players) T♣

River: ($20.52, 2 players) Q♣

SB shows K♠ T♠ (Flush, King High)
(Pre 15%, Flop 98%, Turn 100%)
Hero shows K♥ K♦ (One Pair, Kings)
(Pre 85%, Flop 2%, Turn 0%)
SB wins $19.60
Rake paid $0.92

Here I just thought that villain would have air (high cards with a diamond mostly) so I decided to call with a pair and the nut blocker, since he would not take this line with an overpair or a set. When taking note of the hand and writing the board, I saw that he had a full house, in game, if I had seen the paired board I probably would have folded. I guess I should not start a session when I have a massive headache.

PokerStars - $0.10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (CO): $10.02
BTN: $10.00
SB: $14.65
BB: $19.68
UTG: $2.34
MP: $10.00

SB posts SB $0.05, BB posts BB $0.10

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.15) Hero has A♦ 8♣

fold, fold, Hero raises to $0.25, fold, SB raises to $0.40, fold, Hero calls $0.15

Flop: ($0.90, 2 players) 8♦ 7♣ 3♦
SB bets $0.20, Hero calls $0.20

Turn: ($1.30, 2 players) T♦
SB bets $0.60, Hero calls $0.60

River: ($2.50, 2 players) 3♥
SB bets $9.90, Hero calls $8.82 and is all-in

SB shows T♥ T♠ (Full House, Tens full of Threes)
(Pre 72%, Flop 75%, Turn 82%)
Hero shows A♦ 8♣ (Two Pair, Eights and Threes)
(Pre 28%, Flop 25%, Turn 18%)
SB wins $19.23
Rake paid $0.91

This hand is so sad - the preflop sizing of villain is horrible, his 2nd barrel is horrible, he gets action only from 9sXs, Jx and some combo draws. I shoved turn mostly because fuck it and I thought I had a ton of outs but that was not the case. His "shove" turn is such a spew vs my range and he miraculously happened to run vs the weak part of it, all while having a hand that removes some of my outs. Just ran a quick sim, his TT has 25% vs my calling range (let's say he shoved)

PokerStars - $0.10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

CO: $5.61
BTN: $9.36
SB: $15.79
BB: $14.37
Hero (UTG): $10.00
MP: $19.31

SB posts SB $0.05, BB posts BB $0.10

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.15) Hero has T♠ 9♠

Hero raises to $0.25, fold, CO calls $0.25, BTN calls $0.25, fold, BB raises to $1.00, Hero calls $0.75, CO calls $0.75, fold

Flop: ($3.30, 3 players) J♣ 9♦ J♠
BB bets $1.98, Hero calls $1.98, fold

Turn: ($7.26, 2 players) 7♠
BB bets $4.37, Hero raises to $7.02 and is all-in, BB calls $2.65

River: ($21.30, 2 players) 3♣

BB shows T♣ T♦ (Two Pair, Jacks and Tens)
(Pre 82%, Flop 84%, Turn 72%)
Hero shows T♠ 9♠ (Two Pair, Jacks and Nines)
(Pre 18%, Flop 16%, Turn 28%)
BB wins $20.34
Rake paid $0.96

Edit: I guess the T9s is a fold on the flop though. Also, regarding the KK hand, I guess I'll start to 4b more than 2.5x vs SB because since they play a linear range I don't have much FE I guess. I'll check my db tomorrow to see how much SBs fold to 4b after 3bets.

Edit 2: I'm super salty when I lose, I guess I should really go read the Tendler books again, mental coaching is too expensive ♦