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Flop Shove with Flushdraw?

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TheDudeRoyale
Joined: 19.03.2008

PokerStars, Hold'em No Limit - $0.02/$0.05 - 6 players

UTG: $5.71 (114 bb)
MP: $6.76 (135 bb)
CO (Hero): $7.50 (150 bb)
BU: $5.06 (101 bb)
SB: $5.15 (103 bb)
BB: $5.15 (103 bb)

Pre-Flop: ($0.07) Hero is CO with Q T
2 players fold, Hero raises to $0.15, 2 players fold, BB calls $0.10

Flop: ($0.32) 8 K 2 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $0.21, BB raises to $0.65, Hero ??

Can you help me with my odds & outs? Fold, call or shove?

Random villain Range: 22, 88, 99, KQ, 8c7c (not sure how to construct a proper range in this case for Equilab without going overboard)
9 Outs on my flushdraw + 1 backdoor straight - 1 (Kd) against 22,88
Pot Odds of 27%
Equity against villain range: 42% / Against his shove-calling range (88,22,KQ): 40%
I do think he can bluff those spots, so I give myself 30% fold equity on a shove
Odds for a call with 9 Outs ~19%

With those assumptions, a shove would be marginal +EV but also balance nut shoves. Calling in position should be easy to realize the required implied odds.

1. What do you think about those assumptions?
2. What would you do?
3. How would you evaluate this situation on the spot with little time left?

Thanks!!


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9 replies
Moderator
SDK1987
Joined: 12.11.2008

I would most likely just call. Shove would be to much with in mind you can still 3bet to like $1,50. You have still 2 cards to come and you have position on villain.

Cheers,
SDK1987


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Talisker74
Joined: 17.08.2009

I would fold here
You just have 3rd Nut flush draw and a gutshot
I guess villain has Herr Sets with 88 & 22
Some KQ KJ combos
Maybe some Kx flush draws and some Nut flushes
Not easy to call a Turn bet on a blank card
Even if flush completes and villain shoves... What will you do?


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TheDudeRoyale
Joined: 19.03.2008

Good point. It's not that many combos, though. Nut flush draw is just A9 and A3-A7, and I doubt villain would call all of those oop. Same with Kx suited.

I do think, villain has a bluff checkraising range here, so a fold seems weak to me. Running against a better flush is possible but unlikely and it's a lot to ask to fold a good flush draw every time villain makes a move.

Originally posted by Talisker74
Not easy to call a Turn bet on a blank card
Even if flush completes and villain shoves... What will you do?

Turn call depends on pot odds. Shove would be a call, otherwise there's no point in calling the flop.


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londonsystem
Joined: 19.11.2008

I would fold here.

This is one of my adjustments these days in NL5. In NL5, I don't think you need equity calculation on this type of spots.
When opp calls PF, x/r K-high Flop from OOP, how often he has a bluff? In most cases, you don't need all the ranges. He has a K about 50% of the time.

You could represent AKx or KQx with re-reraise against a specific opp.

Or, you could bet 1BB sometimes against unknowns.


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Tomaloc
Joined: 17.01.2011

you're in position and villain's raise is most likely very polar (2p+/draws/backdoors), i don't think he's raising a lot of Kx. call your entire continuing range and reevaluate turn.
sometimes you hit, sometimes villain gives up and you bluff him... folding flop is pretty insane. turn depends on villain's bet sizing and how you estimate your implied odds.


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TheDudeRoyale
Joined: 19.03.2008

Originally posted by londonsystem

When opp calls PF, x/r K-high Flop from OOP, how often he has a bluff? In most cases, you don't need all the ranges. He has a K about 50% of the time.

Actually, my CO open raising range misses this board a lot, so a bluff x/r isn't a bad move especially against weaker players.

Originally posted by londonsystem
Or, you could bet 1BB sometimes against unknowns.

What would be the plan?


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marcvz
Joined: 03.04.2012

I would call or shove.
I don't see a lot of check raising with draws on NL5. Mostly sets of overpairs.
If you hit, you'd probably take the whole stack, cause people rarely let go of sets.

My initial idea would be to shove the non ace flush draws and call with the ace flush draws in this spot.


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londonsystem
Joined: 19.11.2008

Originally posted by londonsystem
Or, you could bet 1BB sometimes against unknowns.

What would be the plan?

It is a cheap shot, not working against most players. Some NL5 fishes, tends to bet 1BB when they hit a pair or with a good draw. And by betting 1BB here, we are pretending to be such a fish, saying that we have a pair or flush draw. Somehow, some fold often to this 1BB. And he would raise with strong flush draw or a K-pair. So we spend just 1BB and narrow the opp's range, sometimes picking up the pot.

If you have never tried this trick in NL5, just test it when you have no Equity but good table image and POS.


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Super Moderator
VorpalF2F
Joined: 02.09.2010

In the olden days, this was called a "post-oak bluff"
The problems are:
:diamond:  you give opponents superb odds to call with bottom pair and so on.
:diamond:  if you have showdown value of some kind, you trap yourself if opponent shoves.
:diamond:  if you fold after such a bet repeatedly you're just chucking money away.

I do agree that it does work sometimes -- especially when the 4th card to a suit falls on the river.


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