PokerStars, Hold'em No Limit - $0.02/$0.05 - 6 players
UTG: $5.71 (114 bb)
MP: $6.76 (135 bb)
CO (Hero): $7.50 (150 bb)
BU: $5.06 (101 bb)
SB: $5.15 (103 bb)
BB: $5.15 (103 bb)
Pre-Flop: ($0.07) Hero is CO with Q♦ T♦
2 players fold, Hero raises to $0.15, 2 players fold, BB calls $0.10
Flop: ($0.32) 8♦ K♣ 2♦ (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $0.21, BB raises to $0.65, Hero ??
Can you help me with my odds & outs? Fold, call or shove?
Random villain Range: 22, 88, 99, KQ, 8c7c (not sure how to construct a proper range in this case for Equilab without going overboard)
9 Outs on my flushdraw + 1 backdoor straight - 1 (Kd) against 22,88
Pot Odds of 27%
Equity against villain range: 42% / Against his shove-calling range (88,22,KQ): 40%
I do think he can bluff those spots, so I give myself 30% fold equity on a shove
Odds for a call with 9 Outs ~19%
With those assumptions, a shove would be marginal +EV but also balance nut shoves. Calling in position should be easy to realize the required implied odds.
1. What do you think about those assumptions?
2. What would you do?
3. How would you evaluate this situation on the spot with little time left?
Thanks!!