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AA - river play vs unknown

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Pokrovec
Joined: 07.01.2010

Only have 25 hands on the villain
Vpip/Pfr: 12/4

Also, he does not have a full-stack , but it might be a trick to rebuy to something like 99bb

PokerStars - $0.05 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by Holdem Manager 3

SB: $4.98 (99.6 bb)
BB: $10.91 (218.2 bb)
UTG: $5.00 (100 bb)
Hero (CO): $10.39 (207.8 bb)
BTN: $7.13 (142.6 bb)

SB posts $0.02, BB posts $0.05

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.07) Hero has A A
fold, Hero raises to $0.12, fold, SB calls $0.10, BB calls $0.07

standard open raise, the villain is cold calling from SB so my estimation for his range is: TT-22, ATs, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, T9s, 98s, 87s, AJo, KQo

Flop: ($0.36, 3 players) 5 K 6
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets $0.23, SB calls $0.23, fold

flop hits his range quite hard, there is Kx, FD, and SD's, so I am betting for value and protection 2/3
my estimation for his updated range: TT-55, KTs+, 87s, QcJc, AcTc, QcTc, JcTc, Tc9c, 9c8c, KQo

Turn: ($0.82, 2 players) 4
SB checks, Hero bets $0.59, SB calls $0.59

straight is here, but there are still some pairs and FD's I am ahead of, so I am betting again
Board: Kd6c5c4h
Equity Win Tie
CO 71.71% 71.71% 0.00% { AdAs }
SB 28.29% 28.29% 0.00% { TT-55, KTs+, 87s, QcJc, AcTc, QcTc, JcTc, Tc9c, 9c8c, KQo }

River: ($2.00, 2 players) 8
SB checks, Hero bets $1.27, SB raises to $2.84, Hero folds

he check-raised me so let's count his bluffs vs value hands here
bluffs: QcJc, AcTc, QcTc, JcTc, Tc9c (5 combinations)
he would probably call these as a bluff catcher for me barreling that FD: TT-99, KTs+, 9c8c, KQo (37 combinations)
and the rest is beating my rockets: 88-55, 87s (28 combinations)

so I guess I finally made a good fold with rockets, or am I missing something here?
what about bet sizing?

Spoiler

Results: $4.54 pot ($0.19 rake)
Final Board: 5 K 6 4 8

SB wins $4.35


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7 replies
KoningAlbert
Joined: 09.06.2009

I think I would play the hand similarly.
The hands that you do beat, will probably not turn their hand into a bluff on the river.
So I think that you only beat bluffs here and I don't see players bluffing in that spot very often. So I think it's ok to fold, but then again, I've never played these stakes before...

edit: I might play check call on the river, but I assume that I'm missing some value here then?


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Pokrovec
Joined: 07.01.2010

Hmm check call according to my analysis you will miss value from TT-99, KTs+, 9c8c, KQo (37 combinations).
But definitely I can be wrong


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Zaratras
Joined: 03.01.2009

.

Als add some more Axs and Kxs indeed.

I know I make mistakes sometime by call these hands, but my experience on the microstakes is that you lose these hands.


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Talisker74
Joined: 17.08.2009

I guess the calling Range is much to wide.
Mandy players 3bet a lot and just call a feeling hands.
22-tt
45s-t9s
Maybe k9s q9s J9s...

Other hands are 3bet Ort fold


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Pokrovec
Joined: 07.01.2010

.

Originally posted by Talisker74
I guess the calling Range is much to wide...

you guys are killing me here :f_biggrin::f_biggrin::f_biggrin:


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Pokamon
Joined: 15.04.2006

the SB is a recreational.

his VP / PFR has a large gap and he has a callling range in the SB. while in both cases we rely on a small sample, for me this is combined enough evidence. thats why i agree w herrmutig. the range is too narrow. i would even add more hands esp 43s+ and 53s+.

that said, OTR i would either x behind, or bet 5bb /fold.


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