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PLO25 AA92ss 3bet pot turn barrel?

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ghaleon
Joined: 17.10.2007

So we are around 150bb deep at start. BU is somewhat tight player in general. I checked flop spot and solver seems to use 2/3 size for cbetting preferably. Anyway I used half pot with plan to fold to raise. Wanted to protect my hand which is most of time best. Turn is unlikely to help villain and give me shitload of equity so I thought its perhaps best to pot and call shove? Protection as main reason and if I am beat I still have around 30-40% equity versus villain range. 30% versus slowplayed set also.

Versus float happy players turn x-r might be nice but I think this guy is not betting without having me beat most of time. So any reason to pick alternative line?

Game #1573497226: Table €25 PL - 0.10/0.25 - Pot Limit Omaha - 17:01:49 2021/10/21
Seated players
Seat 4: FUandSUMYCOC (€27.68)
Seat 5: Mirulo (€46.98)
Seat 6: migeluu (€33.32)
Blinds and button
migeluu has the button
FUandSUMYCOC posts small blind €0.10
Mirulo posts big blind €0.25
Hole cards
Dealt to Mirulo A♥:9♠:2♣:A♠:
Preflop
migeluu raises €0.85 to €0.85
FUandSUMYCOC folds
Mirulo raises €2.40 to €2.65
migeluu calls €1.80
Flop 8♥:K♠:3♦:
Mirulo bets €2.70
migeluu calls €2.70
Turn 4♠:
Mirulo bets €10.80
migeluu raises €27.97 to €27.97, and is all-in
Mirulo calls €17.17


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Coach
Kyyberi
Joined: 09.07.2010

Solver uses 2/3, if in the sim it has the option to use that. If you would run a sim with options to 1/2 and full pot, solver would use half a pot with this hand. And I am quite sure the EV is around the same. It's all about how the sim is done. Although I have a feeling you have checked the strategy from 100bb stacks sim, not 150bb.

I like half a pot on the flop, full pot on the turn.


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tranceactor
Joined: 09.11.2006

I don't like potting the turn in a vacuum. There are a lot of one pair holdings with dominated draws that you want to keep in the pot. You still want to give them a bad price but pot does too much here and isolates you against all the hands that are in front


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ghaleon
Joined: 17.10.2007

I can see issue in potting from that view. Though is visibility not an issue in river oop if we induce more action with smaller bet?


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tranceactor
Joined: 09.11.2006

It is good that you have that thought but visibility is OK. He usually has nothing to valuebet except of rivered top2+ which is rare. But he has a lot of potential bluffs. So, you have an easy checkcall on basically every runout (or sometimes a valuebet) after you bet 2/3-3/4 OTT and he calls. You will lose the hand more often than with potting of course but it has more EV.


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Kyyberi
Joined: 09.07.2010

We shouldn't be thinking the exact hand, unless the opponent is non-capable to adjust to our strategy. What would we do here with dry AA? AA+fd? Naked nfd? AKxx? On the flop he has one pair or a set, and against a set it doesn't matter what we bet. Vs one pair that turn rarely improves to 2p+, so putting pressure on Kxxx, 8xxx hands is required with the weaker part of our range, AA with As for starters.

If I had to choose just one sizing for this turn, I would pick pot instead of 2/3 or 3/4. We shouldn't have that many bluffs in that range, but a loads of hands that are vulnerable.


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tranceactor
Joined: 09.11.2006

@ kyyberi

That's why I wrote in a vacuum. But yes I definitely don't think that a lot of players on PLO25 or PLO50 are capable of adjusting accordingly. Also no need to limit yourself to just one betsize ;-)

You can argue that you want to be balanced in order to not be exploited. That's fine if you play very good opponents in a small player pool.
But OP is posting a new screen name every other day, it is microstakes and it is a pretty rare spot. Would you read anything into seeing that OP uses this sizing for his specific hand in this specific spot while you are playing multiple tables?
I certainly wouldn't.

I don't worry about this on midstakes where my screen name stays the same in a somewhat small pool and I rarely have the feeling that someone figures me out.
GTO-thinking gives you some kind of safety as you can always conclude "I guess I played it right according to the solver" but you miss out on way more money by exploiting than being exploited because of playing unbalanced would cost.

Just my 2 cents on balancing at PLO microstakes ;-)
I have to say though that I don't know these stakes. But I can't imagine players on AVG there being more receptive and better than on midstakes


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Kyyberi
Joined: 09.07.2010

Unless you have reads on opponents, they are unknown too. You should treat them as averages by some standards.

Versus unknowns you should have your default strategy. And in that default strategy your 3bet game should have either fixed sizing or mixed sizing on certain board textures.

So we can limit ourself as default to 1 or 2 sizings, and it's not about being balanced. It's about playing with default strategy.

Of course we can change the sizings according to our hand strength, if an average opponent doesn't pay attention to our sizings nor ever thinks about what we are doing.

I would turn the question this way:

If opponent is assumed to be bad, who doesn't really think about ranges, equities and strategy, what part of his range would call 3/4 bet but fold to a pot bet on the turn? His flop range is Kxxx, 8xxx, 3xxx.


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Coach
Kyyberi
Joined: 09.07.2010

Oh and I am the one who has talked for years about how we make money at small stakes by exploiting opponents, instead of trying to mimic gto'ish solver strategy. :)


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tranceactor
Joined: 09.11.2006

Originally posted by Kyyberi
Of course we can change the sizings according to our hand strength, if an average opponent doesn't pay attention to our sizings nor ever thinks about what we are doing.

I would turn the question this way:

If opponent is assumed to be bad, who doesn't really think about ranges, equities and strategy, what part of his range would call 3/4 bet but fold to a pot bet on the turn? His flop range is Kxxx, 8xxx, 3xxx.

Yes, that's what I am saying. The average opponent does not get a read here as they see people doing all kind of sizes in these spots. They would specifically need to think about what you are doing. The odd one might do but the vast majority won't.
I also don't expect most to be thinking in ranges or maybe to a very basic degree. The question it comes down to is if you get more calls from Kxxx with 2/3-3/4. From my experience population tends to call them more often against smaller bets (reason being that potsize is usually perceived way stronger than smaller sizes and rightly so as there is a tendency from people to size up with strong hands and size down with weaker hands and the additional monsterhand. So, Kxxx will perceived be stronger against 2/3-3/4 than against potsize Vs population and you get more calls).


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