River Fold?

Tricky spot. There’s 1 ace left the Ah.

We can give him maybe A2hh-AJhh pre-flop which is 9 combos

Then he can have 55,22 3 combos each

We are ahead of 6 combos of Axhh

We are losing to A5hh,A2hh and AJhh is split pot

We lose to his sets 55 and 22 for 6 combos total

So we behind to 8 combos and beating 6 combos (splitting 1 w AJhh)

14 combos total
6 we are beating

We are winning roughly 1 of 3 times which is about 33% if we give him this range and we sre being laid pot odds of 2:1 so I think its an ok call, assuming he plays all Of his suited Axhh this way. I don’t really think he has many flushes in his range because of the turn raise after the bet sizes you have made . If you think villain is wider and would play offsuit Ax that would change things but I don’t hate the call if we think he is capable of playing all his Axhh this way.

I deleted the post before because I realised afterwards that the post was not necessary.

I can only say this much about you hand, the pool there is very fishy.

I would rarely give the villain A9o/A8o. From A10o+ it often becomes 3bet I think. And not in calling range from villain.

Whereas I think that A10s/AJs in BU against CO open raise mostly belong to the 3bet range and not to the calling range.

Maybe I would over play my hand, but i would most likely stack off the turn for value and protection. If villain has a full house or weird played straight it's just a cooler I think. As played the river is a really nasty card and complete the flush and now I would most likely fold or you have some reads on the villain in this hand.

Cheers,
SDK1987

Does beluga theorem still apply in 2021?

I would rarely give the villain A9o/A8o. From A10o+ it often becomes 3bet I think. And not in calling range from villain.

Whereas I think that A10s/AJs in BU against CO open raise mostly belong to the 3bet range and not to the calling range

We can study as many pre flop calling/raising charts as we want, the person on the other side of the screen will decide what he is going to call/raise or 3bet with. Is this opponent a fish or a reg. If fish what kinda fish or reg what kinda reg, everyone is different.

I can only say this much about you hand, the pool there is very fishy.

You say the pool is very fishy then you have to include flushes into his range.

For me personally, it matters the most what kind of player I am up against, as they rarely change their tendencies.

Originally posted by jiffybag
Does beluga theorem still apply in 2021?

For those that don't know the baluga whale theorem, see: https://forums.pokerstrategy.com/forum/thread.php?threadid=70170
There is a few others in that thread.

My answer to the question is: yes it still applies, and perhaps even more so.

If you bet the turn this big, its obvious you have an Ax or similar hand, also from which hands you expect to get value ?

BTN range contains 55, 22, A5 sometimes.

He can call his FDs on the turn, i dont see him bluffing here tbh. With this line multiway i dont see AJ good enough, so i think folding turn is ok.

If opponent is big fish, i think its ok to get the stack in. But only against big fish

Originally posted by SDK1987
Maybe I would over play my hand, but i would most likely stack off the turn for value and protection. If villain has a full house or weird played straight it's just a cooler I think. As played the river is a really nasty card and complete the flush and now I would most likely fold or you have some reads on the villain in this hand.

Cheers,
SDK1987

Unfortunately, I don't have any reads. Except that I marked the opponent as a fish.
Do you always see a fold here at the river in the spot?

Originally posted by jiffybag

We can study as many pre flop calling/raising charts as we want, the person on the other side of the screen will decide what he is going to call/raise or 3bet with. Is this opponent a fish or a reg. If fish what kinda fish or reg what kinda reg, everyone is different.

Yet you still have to give the villain a certain hand range?

You say the pool is very fishy then you have to include flushes into his range.

For me personally, it matters the most what kind of player I am up against, as they rarely change their tendencies.

Yes, if the pool is very fishy he can of course hold some suited hands in his hand range.
But why should he first raise the turn like that on my bet? And not on the flop?

Originally posted by LMcrow
If you bet the turn this big, its obvious you have an Ax or similar hand, also from which hands you expect to get value ?

BTN range contains 55, 22, A5 sometimes.

He can call his FDs on the turn, i dont see him bluffing here tbh. With this line multiway i dont see AJ good enough, so i think folding turn is ok.

If opponent is big fish, i think its ok to get the stack in. But only against big fish

Do you really see a fold at the turn?
As already mentioned, there are a few hands in his hand range where I don't see a fold on the turn and I'm still ahead often enough.

Yet you still have to give the villain a certain hand range?

Of course you still give him a range. But is he the type of opponent who fast plays strong hands (range) on wet flops, if he is then his range would be A5, A2, 22, 55. Fish panic when they see flops like this and don't want to be out drawn.
If he had check raised you on the flop are you still calling? A3-A4-A6-A7-A8-A9-A10 this range may raise the turn for protection/value, but on the river I doubt it shoves. You guys are also kinda deep. You have to know what kinda fish you eating before you make that call.

Yes, if the pool is very fishy he can of course hold some suited hands in his hand range.
But why should he first raise the turn like that on my bet? And not on the flop?

You don't think he would bluff with a spade flush combo str8 draw here? I get why you called the turn, I call turn as well and hope I boat up or get a free showdown or cheap showdown. But when he shoves, especially on that damn K. I tilt ballz and fold.

Nice call by the way

Originally posted by jiffybag

Yet you still have to give the villain a certain hand range?

Of course you still give him a range. But is he the type of opponent who fast plays strong hands (range) on wet flops, if he is then his range would be A5, A2, 22, 55. Fish panic when they see flops like this and don't want to be out drawn.
If he had check raised you on the flop are you still calling? A3-A4-A6-A7-A8-A9-A10 this range may raise the turn for protection/value, but on the river I doubt it shoves. You guys are also kinda deep. You have to know what kinda fish you eating before you make that call.

Yes, if the pool is very fishy he can of course hold some suited hands in his hand range.
But why should he first raise the turn like that on my bet? And not on the flop?

You don't think he would bluff with a spade flush combo str8 draw here? I get why you called the turn, I call turn as well and hope I boat up or get a free showdown or cheap showdown. But when he shoves, especially on that damn K. I tilt ballz and fold.

Nice call by the way

I think Fold is also better here at the river.
You also have to consider that I can also have flushes in my hand range and why should the villain then push river all in when the flush comes if not full house?
That means he would probably check all Ax.

I think Fold is also better here at the river.
You also have to consider that I can also have flushes in my hand range and why should the villain then push river all in when the flush comes if not full house?
That means he would probably check all Ax.

Yes you right, I am obsessing over villains range I forgot what your range must look like from his pov.