3bet pref flush river

If I would check the flop like now I would bet the turn for value for sure against a unknown.
Now with checking turn you can indeed bluff catch.

Cheers,
SDK1987

WIth no BDFD solver checks this combo on the flop, but reads/stats on the opponent would be really helpful here. Against a NL5 unknown I think an aggressive line can put pressure on their wide 3-bet calling range. Against some of the population a small c-bet will take it down immediately and a double barrel on a favorable card like an A,K,Q can will extract value from stations which we are filtering for with the c-bet.

i like the flop check a lot. turn play is also fine.

the 9♦ is a really bad river card though. not only it completes the flush, but also some straights and two pairs.

therefore i would fold our specific combo and rather call w A♣ Q♦ and other hands of that category.

I would almost always C-bet the flop here. The 9:d is the worst river card and such a nice card to bluff on. There is really not much you can beat here except a bluff. I would fold.
I'm wondering what the outcome was?

Outcome was:

isnt it beautiful ?

by calling w A♣ Q♦ you could have doged that spot.

From OOP solver likes to cbet pretty frequently from OOP, checking is ok but if we check too much OOP its difficult to defend our checking range on 3 possible streets of aggression so sometimes its nicer to bet to end up with less junk on later streets but as played turn bet seems mandatory

It seems quite obvious to me now. Even I still like the check OTF, I should definitely bet the turn. There is the biggest mistake IMO.

Originally posted by Casey55
From OOP solver likes to cbet pretty frequently from OOP

sorry, but this is as wrong as it gets:

the solver suggests a range check here, as we are a dog EV-wise.

the turn is a good card for us and the equity shifts in our favour. thats why we start betting here w a 50% frequency:

Originally posted by mjez1
I should definitely bet the turn. There is the biggest mistake IMO.

as you can see, the EV of betting and checking is the same. OTT no mistake was made.

more than half ot the deck will bring a bad river card for you, not holding or blocking a flush. so keeping the pot small is fine.

Originally posted by Pokamon

Originally posted by Casey55
From OOP solver likes to cbet pretty frequently from OOP

sorry, but this is as wrong as it gets:

the solver suggests a range check here, as we are a dog EV-wise.

the turn is a good card for us and the equity shifts in our favour. thats why we start betting here w a 50% frequency:

Originally posted by mjez1
I should definitely bet the turn. There is the biggest mistake IMO.

as you can see, the EV of betting and checking is the same. OTT no mistake was made.

more than half ot the deck will bring a bad river card for you, not holding or blocking a flush. so keeping the pot small is fine.

Depends on the ranges you give it and the sizings, I did not check this specific hand and Im away from my computer for a few days. In general C-betting in a 3-bet pot from OOP in most cases is fine. Solver likes to do this, I’ve watched poker coaches explain this and show examples and I’ve ran sims myself to verify. I try to play an implementable strategy not a perfect gto strategy, its impossible to play perfect gto you don’t get to bring solvers to the table and when you start checking from OOP in 3-bet pots your checking range gets to trashy to defend alot of times.

At the lowest stakes checking the turn seems very unfavorable.

Show me the range you gave villain in that sim. Checking JJ-AA is terrible terrible terrible here

Solver likes a split frequency on the flop, and my solve has overpairs choosing the larger size more than checking, in real time against micros checking over-pairs on this flop seems just bad.

Originally posted by Casey55
From OOP solver likes to cbet pretty frequently from OOP

"sorry, but this is as wrong as it gets"

not really, I'm sharing info I've learned coming directly from Johnathan Little, he just released a new masterclass and most of his content is in depth solvers as is his new class, he shows solves and explains everything and why solver does things, he also goes in great detail and showed multiple sims on different flops of 3-bet pots from OOP comparing the results and it showed on many flops solver just frequently c-bets in 3-bet pots especially from OOP. From there we can adjust based on how our opponent are playing etc. and at the lowest stakes I would not be checking JJ-AA here ever I want value .

we could check some range on this flop but if I'm not balancing my checking range including over-pairs in it I'd rather bet with my best hands and bluffs and check my junk, if I check all my ace-highs here and villain bets alot of my range is going to be folded by the river and opponents over-fold to c-bets on the flop so I'd rather just bet half pot OTF myself with much of my range and check my middling Jx and worse PP's if we have close equity.