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Nut flush draw OTF

 
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Last Post by FriskyArt 5 years ago
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FriskyArt
FriskyArt
Joined: 27.10.2009
Posts: 405
29.12.2021, 16:23

So this is one of those situations we've all encountered so many times but I'm still not sure what the best play is. The nut flush draw + 2 overcards vs all-in bet.

Poker Stars, $0.01/$0.02 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

SB: $2.13 (106.5 bb)
BB: $1.46 (73 bb)
UTG: $2.17 (108.5 bb)
Hero (MP): $4.27 (213.5 bb)
CO: $2.26 (113 bb)
BTN: $2 (100 bb)

Preflop: Hero is MP with A♦: Q♦:
UTG folds, Hero raises to $0.06, CO calls $0.06, 2 folds, BB calls $0.04

Flop: ($0.19) T♦: 3♦: 2♠: (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $0.10, CO folds, BB raises to $1.40 and is all-in, Hero calls $1.30

Spoiler

Turn: ($2.99) 3♠: (2 players, 1 is all-in)
River: ($2.99) 3♥: (2 players, 1 is all-in)

Results: $2.99 pot ($0.10 rake)
Final Board: T♦: 3♦: 2♠: 3♠: 3♥:
BB showed 9♠: 3♣: and won $2.89 ($1.43 net)
Hero showed A♦: Q♦: and lost (-$1.46 net)
CO mucked and lost (-$0.06 net)

Did I made the correct long term play here or not? Considering these facts:

1. 6-hand micro cash game (lot's of weaker players)
2. Not too many reads on villain but I've seen him play pretty loose earlier
3. If he had an absolute monster like AA or a set I was pretty certain he would not play his hand like that
4. A normal smaller sized bet would definitly made me call to see the turn

EssentialIy I put him on a draw or a single pair type of hand but in the last case it's still a coinflip. I would be suspicious vs any 3bet but I guess the real question I'm asking here is this: Isn't this almost always a call to see the turn card because of the implied odds?
Of course since he's all-in so no implied odds but remember this are micro I see players like that do that with any draws or any pair (like he had).

So please help me out on this one because I'm confused. Equilab gives me ~52.73% equity and HM2 even 55%? These precentage don't change with any T in his hand except for AT in which case I still have 47.47% equity. But that's only because of the crazy all-in bet.

Thanks a lot.


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10 replies
Pokamon
Pokamon
Joined: 15.04.2006
Posts: 410
29.12.2021, 17:03 +1

you cant to go wrong w so much equity... unless you fold.


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monteCarlol
monteCarlol
Joined: 24.08.2019
Posts: 1,063
29.12.2021, 17:09 +1

Pot odds are 44% and the odds to make the flush are 35%. That's why this should probably be a fold.
On the other hand the stack size tells us that Villain is a fish. So in the end it depends on how many top pair hands and flush draws (or air) you give them. But it stays close so maybe a fold is still better.
If you had seen this player show up with a hand like this before, it is a no brainer call.


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monteCarlol
monteCarlol
Joined: 24.08.2019
Posts: 1,063
29.12.2021, 17:20

I think Pokemon is right.
Vs a balanced range it is a call (but this doesn't apply here).
Vs a fish range that is merged and contains a fair amount of junk it is a call (applies here).
Vs a Nit with a very value heavy range this gets close.


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FriskyArt
FriskyArt
Joined: 27.10.2009
Posts: 405
29.12.2021, 17:58

First of thanks for the reply's. Now you kind of make me believe that I made the correct decision here to call that off even though I lost a huge pot. It sure feels that he acts like such a huge fish. And my hand sure looks way too strong to fold here.

However If you look at pot odds i have about 52% chance of winning the hand. However, I need to pay $1.30 to win a $1.69 pot. That gives me 77% pot odds, meaning I have to win 77% of the time to make this a profitable call in the long run. I will only win 52% of the time with no implied odds since player is all-in. So in the long term spots like these are not worth it? And folding would actually be the better play after all? Or am I way off here?

Sure it's just micro's but you don't usually see these kind of plays at higher stakes. But even though I have a strong hand that will win a significant amount of time, I'm still not sure about this.


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monteCarlol
monteCarlol
Joined: 24.08.2019
Posts: 1,063
29.12.2021, 18:19 +1

Your pot odds calculation is not correct.
Pot odds = risk / (risk + reward)
Risk = 130
Reward = 169
Pot odds = 130 / (130 + 169) = 43.5%
(Pot odds can never be greater than 50%)


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monteCarlol
monteCarlol
Joined: 24.08.2019
Posts: 1,063
29.12.2021, 18:21

Btw. I think, you will see these kind of plays at most stakes.


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FriskyArt
FriskyArt
Joined: 27.10.2009
Posts: 405
29.12.2021, 18:33

You're absolutely right! That makes much more sense now. Seems like I was way off overthinking this too much and made crucial errors in the process. Thank's for clearing that out!

I need to take math classes again :f_ugly: :f_biggrin:


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SDK1987
Moderator
SDK1987
Joined: 12.11.2008
Posts: 43,850
30.12.2021, 16:07

I would play the hand the same as you did against a short stack. Off course you need to hit to win, but there is a decent change your over cards are life as well.

Cheers,
SDK1987


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FriskyArt
FriskyArt
Joined: 27.10.2009
Posts: 405
30.12.2021, 16:11

Thanks SDK, that was exactly what I was thinking at the table.


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