Hi guys,
I'm very curious about this hand, I would really appreciate if someone could use GTO+ or something similar to ckeck the lines.
Ok, so I guess this is a nobrainer and at the very least I should have folded his river raise. Villain is a LAG 29/25 with 101 hands. I am on that site a 30/27 with 10 3-bet.
So i guess preflop is okay as he's raising something like 55+, AJ+, KQ+, ATs+, KTs+, QJs, JTs. Still, I checked this out in flopzilla and, even though with 101 hands we need to take the positional raising nubers with a grain of salt, it shows that my equity against this range is only around 43% which is way less than I expected with this hand. Anyways, I didn't check his RFI from EP when I did the 3bet, I just checked his overall PFR and it looked like I could very well play this hand in position against him and gain some profit.
In the flop I think I just should have checked behind with second pair, but it was such a dry flop and my range usually hits it and I guess I felt unconfortable playing a 3 bet pot with a marginal holding and I wanted to end the hand right there representing the ace, which usually works in 3 bet pots. I also want to take the betting lead so he checks the turn and maybe the river and get a cheap SD. When he calls his range (checked in flopzilla again, assuming he would 4bet AK+ and QQ+) is mostly top pair (16%), middle pair with the Q (13%), sets (6,5%) and two pair (16,3%) assuming he doesn't continue with anything less than second pair like TT or JJ.
Turn goes check ckeck and it's essentially a blank. At this point I would be happy to use my little SD value or just give up if he bets.
When the river pairs the Q I convinced myself he was a LAG and was betting his Ax for value and raied him for value and when he went all in I thought "well, I have really good odds" which is the poorest argument ever. Assuming my ranges are okay his range here is superstrong and he would not bet his Ax for value or turn into a bluff for that matter. Still, I attach the flopzilla image because he does have some trush into his range (which would never shove over my river raise anyway as he doesn't have any Fold Equity at this point)


