[Closed] shortfuse, an aspiring economist's view

Originally posted by shortfuse
@Jonnym32

I'm glad you find this easy, but please don't just say it's common sense. I'll repeat: Not everyone understands it.

If you don't appreciate how important it is for poker, then that is fine but I suggest others don't make the same 'mistake' and pay attention!

may i ask why it isn't common sense? I'm sure the majority of poker players have been on holiday and have used the bureau de change for the currency. From that, they must be able to grasp the basics of exchange rates ie that a high exchange rate means the products they are buying are cheaper...

Also, in my opinion, if you're going to use it as an important point in poker then why not just go and invest by buying and selling currencies? surely that's a more effective way of using exchange rates to your advantage. Using exchange rates does nothing for your game of poker

Originally posted by Jonnym32

Originally posted by shortfuse
@Jonnym32

I'm glad you find this easy, but please don't just say it's common sense. I'll repeat: Not everyone understands it.

If you don't appreciate how important it is for poker, then that is fine but I suggest others don't make the same 'mistake' and pay attention!

may i ask why it isn't common sense? I'm sure the majority of poker players have been on holiday and have used the bureau de change for the currency. From that, they must be able to grasp the basics of exchange rates ie that a high exchange rate means the products they are buying are cheaper...

Also, in my opinion, if you're going to use it as an important point in poker then why not just go and invest by buying and selling currencies? surely that's a more effective way of using exchange rates to your advantage. Using exchange rates does nothing for your game of poker

Saying it is common sense is patronising, there are people who don't realise the importance of it's effects on cashouts (including you by the sounds of it!)

Trading currencies is not what I advise, that would be going off-topic! The article is about REALISING THE IMPORTANCE of exchange rates! Trading currencies for pure gains is NOT poker, it is trading.

Originally posted by shortfuse
Saying it is common sense is patronising, there are people who don't realise the importance of it's effects on cashouts (including you by the sounds of it!)

Trading currencies is not what I advise, that would be going off-topic! The article is about REALISING THE IMPORTANCE of exchange rates! Trading currencies for pure gains is NOT poker, it is trading.

No it's not really patronising because it actually is common sense lol. When i was 13 and went on holiday with my parents, i was able to figure out that the previous year - goods were much more expensive in comparison to my currency (wasn't inflation) - and it was due to the exchange rate rising. If a 13 year old can figure that out just through observation and experience of going on holiday, i'm 100% sure someone 18+ will be able to figure it out.

Also exchange rates will of course increase your cashout value or decrease it but so what - it's a pretty poor reason for cashing out. You cash out when you need/want the money and letting an exchange rate determine that for you is just stupid. What if the exchange rate is rising and rising and rising? do you suddenly cash out to prevent a "loss"? It's just stupid

Wow, shortfuse, the stuff you can do with exchange rates is pretty frightening!

Now, I wasn't meaning to say exchange rates have no impact on one's profit margin. Just that their impact is - I would say - a lot smaller than the impact of an increase in poker skill is likely to be.

You asked:

Roughly think about how much you cashout in a lump sum every month!

The answer is nothing at the moment. And I'm guessing it's nothing for a great many of the players on this site who are trying to build a bankroll where it actually becomes feasible to make a cash out. That is, the issue of exchange rates only becomes really important when you're pofitable enough to make regular cashouts which financially support you and the impression I get is the number of people who make a living from poker is tiny compared to the total number of players.

Now, to illucidate my point further:

Say a player has a winrate of 1bb/100 hands (1bb = $1)

If he plays 100k hands in a month, he increases his BR by $1,000

Now, say he does lots of study on poker (not on exchange rates) and increases his winrate to 1.75bb/100 hands (entirely feasible imo). Well then his winnings jump by $750. And it would take a huge shift in exchange rates to make that kind of a difference to his profit margin, in my opinion.

Anyway, good luck with your studies - you seem to know your stuff!
Tim

Originally posted by Tim64
Wow, shortfuse, the stuff you can do with exchange rates is pretty frightening!

Now, I wasn't meaning to say exchange rates have no impact on one's profit margin. Just that their impact is - I would say - a lot smaller than the impact of an increase in poker skill is likely to be.

You asked:

Roughly think about how much you cashout in a lump sum every month!

The answer is nothing at the moment. And I'm guessing it's nothing for a great many of the players on this site who are trying to build a bankroll where it actually becomes feasible to make a cash out. That is, the issue of exchange rates only becomes really important when you're pofitable enough to make regular cashouts which financially support you and the impression I get is the number of people who make a living from poker is tiny compared to the total number of players.

Now, to illucidate my point further:

Say a player has a winrate of 1bb/100 hands (1bb = $1)

If he plays 100k hands in a month, he increases his BR by $1,000

Now, say he does lots of study on poker (not on exchange rates) and increases his winrate to 1.75bb/100 hands (entirely feasible imo). Well then his winnings jump by $750. And it would take a huge shift in exchange rates to make that kind of a difference to his profit margin, in my opinion.

Anyway, good luck with your studies - you seem to know your stuff!
Tim

I agree absolutely about focusing MORE time on studying poker rather than exchange rates!

However, my view is that both aspects should be considered (but not equally), one can still study poker 99% of time but pay 1% attention to exchange rates. This way the player can understand, as much as he/she wants, and benefit more! More knowledge is better I think.

It could also be the answer to why a player may think they aren't cashing out as much as they thought they would, and similarly also bring the player back down to earth once they realise they probably aren't as brilliant as they thought they were!

I think you have the right attitude, in that you have given this thought (but not too much) and have gained a little bit more knowledge which is what I was hoping for!

OK I realise I may have sounded like a bit of a dick but it is only because I am so passionate about trying to allow people to realise the importance of this external factor, something which I think many players neglect! Again just to reiterate, I am suggesting not to try and second guess the market, but appreciate the volatility of the market and how it will AFFECT yout cashouts. Not how to prevent it or exploit it, because it is too risky.

That should conclude the first topic.

Bankroll management

After a fortnight of playing of just over 10k hands, i have built the original $5 up to $170 (peaked at $180)

I play 9 tables at a time for just over an hour a day.

I currently play 4 tables of NL25 SSS and 5 tables of NL4 BSS

I hate to say it, but I've become 'bored' and playing poker isn't 'thrilling' anymore, I play like a robot most of the time (micro stakes so ABC poker is best).

I was thinking, would it be wise to open up NL10 BSS table in place of a SSS table bacuse:

1) I can get a feel for NL10 before my bankroll grows big enough to accomodate all NL10
2) It doesn't jeapordise my bankroll too much, since if i lost a $10 buy in, my bankroll would still be $160 (more than enough for NL4 BSS)

i.e

would playing:
3 NL5 SSS, 5 NL4 BSS, 1 Nl10 BSS be a good idea with $170?

as for multitabling, it is not the issue I can play conformtably. The issue is my bankroll?!

I posted this in 'self study and management' forum too

I think your marginal utility of playing at those stakes is still high and, therefore, profitable. I also think that your elasticity of playing at these levels is still high, you receive more compared to your time spent playing. Keep playing them to build the bankroll a bit more.

It seems you will absolutely love playing BSS, especially at the higher stakes, so my advise is to build up your bankroll first. Grind and grind again. Don't fall into the trap of playing higher limits, especially with BSS, or you'll go bust in a heartbeat.

Just keep grinding and building your bankroll.

Originally posted by MigArt
I think your marginal utility of playing at those stakes is still high and, therefore, profitable. I also think that your elasticity of playing at these levels is still high, you receive more compared to your time spent playing. Keep playing them to build the bankroll a bit more.

It seems you will absolutely love playing BSS, especially at the higher stakes, so my advise is to build up your bankroll first. Grind and grind again. Don't fall into the trap of playing higher limits, especially with BSS, or you'll go bust in a heartbeat.

Just keep grinding and building your bankroll.

I think you are right, thanks for your opinion!

It was just that the marginal profit, in comparison to my bankroll, are diminishing (as is for any winning player at a fixed stake) thus it seems like I am not getting anywhere.

I guess slow and steady wins the race! I'll keep grinding until $300, then I'll hit the NL10's ♦

This has given me an idea for a next article, I'll have a think about whether it's worth mentioning or not!

Originally posted by shortfuse

Originally posted by MigArt
I think your marginal utility of playing at those stakes is still high and, therefore, profitable. I also think that your elasticity of playing at these levels is still high, you receive more compared to your time spent playing. Keep playing them to build the bankroll a bit more.

It seems you will absolutely love playing BSS, especially at the higher stakes, so my advise is to build up your bankroll first. Grind and grind again. Don't fall into the trap of playing higher limits, especially with BSS, or you'll go bust in a heartbeat.

Just keep grinding and building your bankroll.

I think you are right, thanks for your opinion!

It was just that the marginal profit, in comparison to my bankroll, are diminishing (as is for any winning player at a fixed stake) thus it seems like I am not getting anywhere.

I guess slow and steady wins the race! I'll keep grinding until $300, then I'll hit the NL10's ♦

This has given me an idea for a next article, I'll have a think about whether it's worth mentioning or not!

♦

As long as the limit played-earnings relation keeps elastic, play it. Think of the law of diminished returns. The input is you and your time spent, the output is the profit you win in each session. The costs for your output are still relatively tiny compared to the costs of your input and therefore your yield is greater, so keep at it until your bankroll is big enough that BSS at a higher level becomes less of a risk in case of continues losses.

I would advise you playing 7 tables of NL25 SSS and 2 tables of NL4 BSS, the reason being that although some dislike SSS a lot because it makes you act like a robot, the truth is that SSS is a very safe, low-risk investment that will increase your bankroll faster at lower limits and in a very short-term compared to BSS. 7 tables of NL25 SSS should boost your bankroll a lot if you keep playing well, while the 2 NL4 BSS tables will serve you more as a learning tool than an investment of profit. This way, when your bankroll has accumulated enough earnings through SSS and you feel you have a better grasp of BSS through the 2 tables of NL4 you'll be ready to play more BSS tables and have a decent bankroll as well.

And keep reading all the strategy articles. Poker is a game of probabilities, and the articles of NL really help boost your knowledge of the game, especially the silver level ones.

Originally posted by MigArt

Originally posted by shortfuse

Originally posted by MigArt
I think your marginal utility of playing at those stakes is still high and, therefore, profitable. I also think that your elasticity of playing at these levels is still high, you receive more compared to your time spent playing. Keep playing them to build the bankroll a bit more.

It seems you will absolutely love playing BSS, especially at the higher stakes, so my advise is to build up your bankroll first. Grind and grind again. Don't fall into the trap of playing higher limits, especially with BSS, or you'll go bust in a heartbeat.

Just keep grinding and building your bankroll.

I think you are right, thanks for your opinion!

It was just that the marginal profit, in comparison to my bankroll, are diminishing (as is for any winning player at a fixed stake) thus it seems like I am not getting anywhere.

I guess slow and steady wins the race! I'll keep grinding until $300, then I'll hit the NL10's ♦

This has given me an idea for a next article, I'll have a think about whether it's worth mentioning or not!

♦

As long as the limit played-earnings relation keeps elastic, play it. Think of the law of diminished returns. The input is you and your time spent, the output is the profit you win in each session. The costs for your output are still relatively tiny compared to the costs of your input and therefore your yield is greater, so keep at it until your bankroll is big enough that BSS at a higher level becomes less of a risk in case of continues losses.

I would advise you playing 7 tables of NL25 SSS and 2 tables of NL4 BSS, the reason being that although some dislike SSS a lot because it makes you act like a robot, the truth is that SSS is a very safe, low-risk investment that will increase your bankroll faster at lower limits and in a very short-term compared to BSS. 7 tables of NL25 SSS should boost your bankroll a lot if you keep playing well, while the 2 NL4 BSS tables will serve you more as a learning tool than an investment of profit. This way, when your bankroll has accumulated enough earnings through SSS and you feel you have a better grasp of BSS through the 2 tables of NL4 you'll be ready to play more BSS tables and have a decent bankroll as well.

And keep reading all the strategy articles. Poker is a game of probabilities, and the articles of NL really help boost your knowledge of the game, especially the silver level ones.

Hi, perhaps I should gave my reasons for 3:6 SSS: BSS rather than 7:2.

I am playing on partypoker beginners tables (for newbies first 45 days so more fish! and it is 10 man) so it is a matter of availability rather than choice!

There are many NL4 tables, fewer Nl10 and even fewer NL25 etc...

Perhaps I should step out of the 'comfort' of beginners tables and play more SSS in 'real' tables, ones where players are more than 45 days old!

I'll let you know how this goes... I suspect it may be tighter, but not that much since the stakes are still comparably low in the grand scheme of things.

lol so i decided to give NL10 a shot, since if I lost a BI i would still have 30+ for my normal stakes

Hand converted with online PokerStrategy.com hand converter:

Play hand

$0.05/$0.1 No-Limit Hold'em (10 handed)

Known players:
[tg]MP3$12.07:///////;CO(Hero)$9.95:///////;BU$1.85:///////;SB$16.83:///////;BB$8.11:///////;UTG1$2.00:///////;UTG2$26.61:///////;MP1$10.51:///////;MP2$1.85:///////;[/tg]

Preflop: Hero is CO with A:d, A:s.
UTG1 calls $0.10, UTG2 calls $0.10, 2 folds, MP3 calls $0.10, Hero raises to $0.60, 4 folds, UTG2 calls $0.50, MP3 folds.

Flop: ($1.55) 2:d, 6:d, T:h (3 players)
UTG2 bets $1.11, Hero raises to $3.42, UTG2 raises to $24.90(All-In), Hero calls $5.93(All-In).

Turn: ($36.91) Q:h (3 players)

River: ($36.91) 3:h (3 players)

Final Pot: $36.91.
Results follow:

Hero shows a pair of aces(A:d A:s).
UTG2 shows three of a kind, threes(3:c 3:s).

UTG2 wins with three of a kind, threes(3:c 3:s).

LOL

I HAVE CLEARED THE $50 RESTRICTED STARTUP CAPITAL!

WOOHOOO!!!

♦ :D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D

Now, still waiting for $100 bonus offer to pop up...

OK i just lost $50 (10 BI) playing SSS

I FUKING HATE IT I WILL NEVER PLAY SSS EVER AGAIN TIS FOR FUKIN BOTS

just keep at it! tomorrow you win again its like a rollercoaster

Originally posted by wowadvisor
just keep at it! tomorrow you win again its like a rollercoaster

I don't like rollercoasters

♠_frown:

I'm playing NL10 BSS now though, much tighter players (comapred to NL4) but still rather fishy ♦

The other SSS players are sooo annoying though! But at least I have a better guesstimate of their range since I too played NL10 SSS once haha!

My record is -18BI in 750 hands, it was one third of my roll at the time. I wasn't even tilting. SSS is swingy nothing you can do about it.

wow, almost a month since i've started now and the ride has been great (except the losing sessions haha)!

here's to update you:

i thought i'd include bb aswell since the dollars spikes up and is not an accurate representation since i have recently moved up to NL10!

ok so i've started playing SSS NL50 and its sooooo frustrating! Losing $10 a pop is real nasty haha!

my 99 vs 77 and the guy gets runner runner for straight

then my KK on 10,10, A board

and i thought button was bluffing but had AQ :(, so bad play but humffff

BSS still going well though!

GUESS WHOS GOLD MUAHAHHAHAHAHHAHA