[Closed] PP 55$ monsterdraw in MWP

c/c flop, bet turn , bet river seems nice. why risk this to get checked down after no-one bets the flop ?

check-raise flop, bet turn, bet river. People are not going to bet their Qx there, but they will call at least 1 bet. Same thing with all the draws.

I think there's too many players in the pot to make checkraising optimal, meaning at least one is going broke too often, also with so many players in the pot a higher flushdraw will be occurr a decent amount(which doesn't mean we're folding flushes but is a downer for us equitywise).

So I'd stick to c/c the flop too. I'd like bet/shoving or check/raising better if we were 3way or hu, which one of those depends on their aggression.
bet/shove has the advantage of having foldequity on bigger pots, but might put us in bad turnspots in a bloated pot if 1+ guy(s) call and we miss, checkraising kind of has the same problem, if someone just calls our raise we get into strange turn decisions, while with checkraising we're going to take it down on the flop more than with bet/shove(given that at least one person will bet a lot of the time).

Once on the turn, I'd be ready to fire 2 bets out whatever the river is.
Probably only calling a raise on a paired river(depending on what paired -> how likely their trips are, if toppair gets trips they're going to have it much more often than bottom pair obv).

The reason I want to check/raise here is:

1. We have very good equity ( over 50% against overpair and ~against set) so we don't mind getting called. The only hand we don't want be called with is larger fd+pair. We want to raise big anyways to get all the chips in ahead.
2. The check-raise has fold equity, we probably get flush draws to fold (Except for Adxd).
3. If we call and don't hit, we often have to give up the hand because we don't have odds to call anymore.
4. We are first to act.
5. I'd bet if we were in later position as it would look weaker that way.

Flop check-call, or bet-shove, they are probably equal in equity. Stack sizes are just too wrong for check-raising the flop, except maybe as check-raise AI, which eventho it looks somewhat ridiculous, might have the added advantage that others fold higher FDs to it.

Turn is definately lead after check-check flop. There are still flush draws, some new straight draws opened that both might pay. Altough heros flop check, turn lead into multiway looks somewhat like a flopped set, it cant be helped. Her is in a hurry to get the pot growing here, and with the exception of turned 2 pair (unlikely), flopped slowplayed set (somewhat unlikely), hero isnt going to get a bet out of anyone if hero checks the turn. Its simply too many players in the pot for anyone to take a stab at it with anything but a quality hand, which seems unlikely consdering the preflop action. But with all the draws, ppl will call with all kinds of hands, including occasionally with weak top pair etc.

As played, river is check-raise-fold or check-raise-call, dependin on the type of players. Heros line isnt very believable for anything strong, so 2 pair will defiantely call heros CR. Ofcourse,this causes the problem that hero might occasionally lay down the best hand to the bet-3bet line by villain. But if you have stats on players you can usually estimate who might pull off a 3bet bluff on the river. I think check-call or bet-call are just missed value.

Thanks for all reviews!

Originally posted by typohh
Flop check-call, or bet-shove, they are probably equal in equity. Stack sizes are just too wrong for check-raising the flop...

Turn is definately lead after check-check flop.

looking at it now, this is just too true: lead turn very important for payout by draws. if you slowplay nuts+redraw to death you wont get any richer ♦

but one thing i dont agree w/ you: c/r river. i dont think 2pair is calling a c/r on the river here, what you think?
as soon as we hit the river i was like: 2pair is gonna vbet itself. 1pair is unlikely to pay my bet off. JT might be out there as well in a 5way pot. so I decided not to lead out for 2 reasons: i must fold if reraised on river, but a bad player might make a raise with KQ here, not only JT. 80-90% of the hands calling a bet will vbet for themselves, no matter if I can beat them or not.

--> villain JT obv.. maybe if not it doesnt hurt as much and I dont post and I dont learn ♦

Originally posted by Njeng
but one thing i dont agree w/ you: c/r river. i dont think 2pair is calling a c/r on the river here, what you think?
as soon as we hit the river i was like: 2pair is gonna vbet itself. 1pair is unlikely to pay my bet off. JT might be out there as well in a 5way pot. so I decided not to lead out for 2 reasons: i must fold if reraised on river, but a bad player might make a raise with KQ here, not only JT. 80-90% of the hands calling a bet will vbet for themselves, no matter if I can beat them or not.

--> villain JT obv.. maybe if not it doesnt hurt as much and I dont post and I dont learn ♦

You're definitively giving your opponents to much credit. You have the 2nd nuts and HenTri27 is the only thinking player involved in this hand.

Hi,

I think bet/shove would be my preferred line. I hope that some FD will be folding, that reduces our reverse implied odds and I hope to get it AI against made hands on the Flop that want to protect their hand and our equity is max on the flop. And he has no Chance to fold when we improve.

The problem I see with a C/R is, that he could call on the flop and not go AI, that would cost us a lot of equity.