PLO50 TT83ss limped pot, river sizing?

I often go with smaller 1/3 sizing on these spots. When we play with limpers, we should forget solver postflop and play the opponents. Strategy versus there assumed passive and call-happy players is to extract as much value as possible and skip all balancing.

To determine the optimal sizing on the river we need to figure out his range. If his possible made hand range is quite strong (let's say on flush boards he calls with flushes, but in his eyes any flush is strong) we should use bigger sizing. But when his range is wide (including weak and medium strength hands) we should aim for the sweet spot. I miss PokerJuice as with that it was easy to calculate the sweet spot based on our assumptions. Like if we have to choose between 1/3 or 3/4 sizings, we could just calculate the EV of either sizing based on our assumption of his calling range on either sizing.

The sweet spot is as big bet as possible, with as wide calling range as possible. Here is an example for those, who are still wondering that the **** I am talking about:

Let's say that on a spot we can go big 3/4 sizing and opponent calls with only quite strong hands. Or we can go 1/3 and he calls with almost anything that connects with the board. In his range he has the strong hands 10% of times and weaker calling hands 50% of times. The value of our bet is following if pot is 24bbbbbb

3/4 sizing, we get that 18bb value on the river 10% of times = EV 1,8bb
1/3 sizing, we get that 8bb value on the river 50% of times = EV 4bb

In Ghaleon's hand I think his range has a lot of 2 pairs which would call that smaller sizing but would fold to a big bet. So without reads I would bet small for sure.

They will never slowplay nuts with fd out on the turn, so i would pot River . Hope they call 25% of the time. Same win with 1/4 River Bet when called

I honestly think we have hard time to get action even from second nuts with big sizing. I bet flop big get three calls, barrel turn pot get three calls and triple barrel blank runout. So even with small sizing I pretty much only ecpect to get action from straights and I would not be surprised to see 2nd nuts folding. Well it depends if I have seen some player call light in general but my line is just "superbly strong" ♦

He never have nuts, so You would size up bluff .
You can have lower straight in your range and make fold similar hand

Two opponents limp. so we don't care about balancing. If we bluff, we size up. If we want to get calls from 2 pairs, we size down. If we think they would not bluff catch with 2 pairs/sets etc. we size up.

tried to run a 3way sim yesterday^^
not sure if it was succesful, so be careful about that:f_biggrin: (btn checked like 0,5% nuts behind, so maybe the sim was wrong or not run long enough.

anyway. i did give several betsizings to see where it goes. and first to act and the sandwiched player had 0% big sizings. and even 2nd nut straight would had been roughly pure folds against pot for example. just last to act could have sized up a little bit, but also not too much in terms of frequency.

so i think overall its well played. maybe still could aim for a little bit higher river bet like around 36% towards close to 50%. as there have been two limpers and the guy who limped behind has no autorebuy. so they might been a bit stationy. but for itself i think its correct choice by ghaleon and reasonable line.

Problem with sim is that it assumes opponent has perfect balance between bluffs, range protection and value bets. In this case opponents are limping, which means they are so far from solver assumptions that we should not follow solver strategy in this spot. I think solver approach versus limpers affects our EV quite dramatically, in negative way. And at lower stakes most of our EV overall comes from these players. So we should try to maximize our EV versus players that can be easily heavily exploited.

Would be a different thing, if the pot was raised normally and opponents were unknown. Then we could/should approach the situation from solver perspective.

When they hope for a chop pot , they call small River Bet. Its worth them.

Well I did get three snap folds in this so probably no one had 2nd nuts. But yeah even if we are bluffing I would not go huge in this spot. Though obviously bluffs are quite rare especially on this river as 889x type got straight as well. So possibly some J88 with high fd could be there. Potting turn versus three players without some equity would be quite questionable.